Broad scale quantified flood risk analysis in the <scp>T</scp>aihu <scp>B</scp>asin, <scp>C</scp>hina

Yu, Chunyan; Cheng, Xiaotao; Evans, E. P.

doi:10.1111/jfr3.12027

Cited by 13 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Climate input analysis [27] Economic assessments [29] Flood damage assessments [30] Hydrological data collection and frequency analysis…”

Section: R-d Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Three-Parameter S-Shaped Function of Flood Return Period and Damage

Cheng

et al. 2016

Advances in Meteorology

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With growing flood risk due to increased urbanization, flood damage assessment and flood risk management must be reconsidered. To demonstrate and assess the new features and trends of flood risk in urbanized areas, a novel S-shaped function of return period and damage(R-D)is proposed. The function contains three parameters, which are defined as the maximum flood damageA, critical return periodRc, and integrated loss coefficientk. A basic framework for flood damage assessment was established to evaluate flood damage in the Taihu Basin under various scenarios. The simulation results were used to construct the floodR-Dfunctions. The study results show that the floodR-Dmodel based on the Gompertz function agrees well with the mutability of flood damage in the highly urbanized basin when the flood scale exceeds the defense capability. TheR-Dfunction can be utilized for timely and effective flood damage assessment and prediction. It can describe the impacts of socioeconomic development, urbanization degree, and flood control capability improvements well. The turning points of the function curve can be used as gradation criteria for rational strategy development associated with flood hazards.

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“…Climate input analysis [27] Economic assessments [29] Flood damage assessments [30] Hydrological data collection and frequency analysis…”

Section: R-d Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Flood Damage Assessments. The Taihu Basin Risk Assessment System (TBRAS) risk analysis model is established to model inundation depths in the flood cells and calculate associated economic damage[30].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Three-Parameter S-Shaped Function of Flood Return Period and Damage

Cheng

et al. 2016

Advances in Meteorology

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“…In the past 30 years, large-scale flood events (in 1991, 1999 and 2016) have occurred in the TLB. Local flood events are more frequent, and some studies have indicated that the frequency and risk of future floods in the TLB will increase further [31,32]. Therefore, clarifying the impact of LULC change on hydrological processes in the TLB will help with water resource management in the basin, thereby reducing the risk of flooding.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Hydrologic Impacts of Land Use Change in the Taihu Lake Basin of China from 1985 to 2010

Gao

et al. 2018

Water

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In recent decades, the land use patterns in the Taihu Lake Basin (TLB) have undergone tremendous change. Assessing the response of land surface hydrological processes caused by land use change is conducive to basin water resource management and the prevention of urban flooding. The water yield under different land use scenarios in 1985, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010 were calculated by the STREAM model. During the study period of 1985–2010, the contribution of farmland to the total water yield decreased from 47.20% to 35.2%. The contribution of construction land to the total water yield increased from 10.50% to 25.82%. There was a significant spatial difference in the growth of the water yield in 1985–2010. The Pudong sub-region, Puxi sub-region, Yangchengdianmao sub-region, and the Wuchengxiyu sub-region, with relatively faster urban development, also had higher water yield growth rates. During the study period, the growth rate of water yields in towns showed a spatial clustering feature. MI increased from 0.22 to 0.38, indicating that this spatial clustering feature had an increasing trend. The results of an LISA analysis showed that there was a significant spatial difference in the growth rate of water yield in the TLB. The high growth centers are mainly located in the north of the basin, while the low growth centers are mainly located in the southwest of the basin. At the same time, the center of the high growth rate of water yield showed a certain trend of expansion and transfer. Regression analysis showed that urban development had a significant impact on water yield; for every increase of 1 km2 of construction land in the TLB, there was an increase of water yield of more than 300,000 m3. Further study indicated that the growth of local water production in TLB was much higher than the average value of the basin, and it was significantly related to the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita.

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“…Therefore, to solve Equation (3), it is necessary to determine the probability distribution of the flood events, their depths, and the associated damage. In general, a damage probability curve is built based on different flood return periods (Yu, Hall, Cheng, & Evans, 2013).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated quantitative framework to support design of resilient alternatives to manage urban flood risks

Miguez

Raupp²,

Veról

2018

J Flood Risk Management

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Urban floods can disrupt city services and cause significant damage. This study intends to contribute to the flood control discussion by proposing a design framework combining flood risk, resilience, and economic feasibility to support decision‐making among flood control alternatives. First, a hydrodynamic model (Urban Flood Cell Model‐MODCEL) simulates flood maps for different return periods. Then, a multicriteria flood risk index is used to introduce socioeconomic variables and an integrated flood resilience index indicates the best alternative for maintaining risks at an acceptable level under future pressures, that is, guaranteeing that future risks will not increase significantly. Finally, economic feasibility is assessed, adding a benefit–cost analysis, considering the expected avoided losses over a given time. To illustrate this discussion, two design alternatives are compared for a project lifetime of 50 years in the Dona Eugenia watershed, in the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The proposed framework showed that the most complete (and initially preferred) alternative, which considered a whole set of distributed sustainable urban drainage and river restoration measures, was not economically feasible. A variant of this alternative focusing on fluvial floodable parks and river restoration, avoiding individual adaptations (like implementing green roofs in existing buildings), showed more sustainable results.

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Broad scale quantified flood risk analysis in the Taihu Basin, China

Cited by 13 publications

References 13 publications

A Three-Parameter S-Shaped Function of Flood Return Period and Damage

A Three-Parameter S-Shaped Function of Flood Return Period and Damage

Assessing the Hydrologic Impacts of Land Use Change in the Taihu Lake Basin of China from 1985 to 2010

An integrated quantitative framework to support design of resilient alternatives to manage urban flood risks

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