Boundary effects of vague risk information on taxpayer decisions

Casey, Jeff T.; Scholz, John T.

doi:10.1016/0749-5978(91)90027-q

Cited by 42 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 35 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This notion of ambiguity in risk perceptions has a natural extension to criminal decision-making where detection probabilities are rarely known to potential offenders and are thus mostly subjective. While this concept has been broached before with respect to crime (Casey & Scholz, 1991a, 1991bNagin, 1998;Sherman, 1990), ambiguity in certainty perceptions is still an important but understudied topic that is fertile for new inquiries of perceptual deterrence.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Re-Examining the Functional Form of the Certainty Effect in Deterrence Theory

Loughran

Pogarsky²,

Piquero

et al. 2011

Justice Quarterly

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this paper we explore the functional form of the risk-certainty effect for deterrence. Using a sample of serious youth offenders, we first estimate a simple linear model of the relationship between the perceived certainty of punishment and self-reported offending. Consistent with previous literature we find evidence of a moderate deterrent effect. We then examined whether, consistent with a linear model, the effect of perceived risk is truly constant at different ranges of the risk continuum. Estimating a nonparametric regression model that makes no a priori assumption about the functional form of the model but allows the data itself to yield the appropriate functional form, we found marked departures from linearity. Our examination showed evidence of both a tipping effect, whereby perceived risk deters only when it reaches a certain threshold (between an estimated risk of .3 and .4) and a substantially accelerated deterrent effect for individuals at the high end of the risk continuum. Perceived sanction threats did, however, have a non-trivial deterrent effect within the mid-range of risk. The implications of our findings for both theory and additional research are discussed.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Re-Examining the Functional Form of the Certainty Effect in Deterrence Theory

Loughran

Pogarsky²,

Piquero

et al. 2011

Justice Quarterly

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Some recent experimental studies in psychology advocate the term "imprecision" or "vagueness" instead of ambiguity (e.g., Budescu, Weinberg, & Wallsten, 1988;Du & Budescu, 2005;Gonzalez-Vallejo, Bonazzi, & Shapiro, 1996;Kuhn & Budescu, 1996). According to this perspective, the imprecise information can be either with respect to the underlying probabilities or the range of possible outcomes (Budescu et al, 2002;Casey & Scholz, 1991;Du & Budescu, 2005;Gonzalez-Vallejo et al, 1996;Ho, Keller, & Keltyka, 2002;Kuhn & Budescu, 1996;Kunreuther, Meszaros, Hogarth, & Spranca, 1995;Schoemaker, 1989). To illustrate the difference between imprecise probabilities versus imprecise outcomes, consider an entrance into a sweepstakes drawing versus a purchase of a 6/49 state lottery ticket.…”

Section: Ambiguity Aversionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Temporal Distance on Attitudes toward Imprecise Probabilities and Imprecise Outcomes

Onay

La-ornual

Öncüler

2012

Behavioral Decision Making

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Many personal, managerial, and societal decisions involve uncertain or ambiguous consequences that will occur in the future. Yet, previous empirical research on ambiguity preferences has focused mainly on decisions with immediate outcomes. To close this gap in the literature, this paper examines ambiguity attitudes toward future prospects, particularly how they may differ from the attitudes toward comparable prospects in the present. On the basis of a recent paradigm, we first distinguish between two types of ambiguity: imprecise probabilities and imprecise outcomes. Then, in accordance with construal level theory, which shows that temporal distance increases the relative importance of outcomes over probabilities in evaluating prospects, we conjecture that temporal distance would moderate attitudes toward imprecise probabilities but amplify attitudes toward imprecise outcomes. Through a series of experiments, we demonstrate that when the prospects are in the future, individuals are less averse toward imprecise probabilities and more seeking toward imprecise outcomes. However, the effect is most prominent for prospects where both the probability and outcome dimensions are concurrently imprecise. The paper ends with a discussion on how dimension salience may have contributed to this result. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

show abstract

“…Previous research regarding unlikely events has not extended much further than events with likelihoods of approximately 5% or 10%. Such studies either have found that events were overweighted (Chipman, ; Kahn and Sarin, ; Curley and Yates, ; Casey and Scholz, ) or have not rejected ambiguity neutrality (Curley and Yates, ; Sarin and Weber, ). Two studies used stimuli more similar to ours but did not address the three challenges identified in the introduction to this article (incentives, isolation of ambiguity attitudes, and control for beliefs).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Zooming in on Ambiguity Attitudes

Baillon

Emirmahmutoglu

2018

Int Economic Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Empirical studies of ambiguity attitudes to date have focused on events of moderate likelihood. Extrapolation to rare events requires caution. In an Ellsberg-like experiment with very unlikely events, we measured ambiguity attitudes with neither assumptions on subjects' beliefs nor restrictions to specific ambiguity models. Very unlikely events were overweighted, being weighted more strongly in isolation than when part of larger events. Using latent profile analysis, we classified the subjects in terms of deviations from ambiguity neutrality. One third behaved close to ambiguity neutrality. The others exhibited overweighting of rare events. Such behavior can lead to money-pump situations.

show abstract

Boundary effects of vague risk information on taxpayer decisions

Cited by 42 publications

References 35 publications

Re-Examining the Functional Form of the Certainty Effect in Deterrence Theory

Re-Examining the Functional Form of the Certainty Effect in Deterrence Theory

The Effect of Temporal Distance on Attitudes toward Imprecise Probabilities and Imprecise Outcomes

Zooming in on Ambiguity Attitudes

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About