Bitcoin pricing: impact of attractiveness variables

Abstract

The research seeks to contribute to Bitcoin pricing analysis based on the dynamics between variables of attractiveness and the value of the digital currency. Using the error correction model, the relationship between the price of the virtual currency, Bitcoin, and the number of Google searches that used the terms bitcoin, bitcoin crash and crisis between December 2012 and February 2018 is analyzed. The study also applied the same analysis to prices of Bitcoin denominated in different sovereign currencies traded during the same period. The Johansen (J Econ Dyn Control 12:231-254, 1988) test demonstrates that the price and number of searches on Google for the first two terms are cointegrated. This research indicates that there are strong short-term and long-term dynamics among attractiveness factors, suggesting that an increase in worldwide interest in Bitcoin is usually preceded by a price increase. In contrast, an increase in market mistrust over a collapse of the currency, as measured by the term bitcoin crash, is followed by a fall in price. Intense world economic crisis events appear to have a strong impact on interest in the virtual currency. This study demonstrates that during a worldwide crisis Bitcoin becomes an alternative investment, increasing its price. Based on it, bitcoin may be used as a safe haven by the financial market and its intrinsic characteristics might help the investors and governments to find new mechanisms to deal with monetary transactions.

Short-run and long-run determinants of bitcoin returns: transnational evidence

“…(2018) also find Google searches as a significant factor in determining bitcoin prices. Hakim das Neves (2020) have similar findings, suggesting that the bitcoin price increase is significantly affected by the number of Google searches throughout the world. Hayes (2016) establishes a strong evidence toward energy consumption being a driver of bitcoin value.…”

Investor attention and cryptocurrency: Evidence from the Bitcoin market

“…Studies also found evidence of micro or macro fundamental factors that affect Bitcoin price. For example, Neves [42] suggested that investment attractiveness had a prominent role in Bitcoin price formation, while other researchers [3,34,43,44] argued the stock market, exchange rate, gold, oil, Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), and the Geopolitical Risk Index, etc.…”

How Blockchain Network Factors and Market Forces Determine Bitcoin Returns

“…The external factors as political considerations, which includes legalization (adaptation) [Murphy, 2015;Cvetkova, 2018], restrictions [Schueffel, & Hammer, 2020]; cryptocurrency market influences like as cryptocurrency market (capitalization) [Sovbetov, 2018;Poyser, 2019], cryptocurrency withdrawal [Ji, Bouri, Kristoufek, & Lucey, 2019]; bitcoin attractiveness [das Neves, 2020, Guizani &Nafti, 2019Ciaian, Rajcaniova & Kancs, 2014], investor's sentiments [Poyser, 2019]; market trends and speculations [Blau, 2018;Lansky, 2016], as well as the macrofinancial, which include stock markets (global market spill overs and volatility) [Liang et al, 2020], macroeconomic [Guizani & Nafti, 2019]; exchange rates [Ji et al, 2019]; financial assets and commodities as gold price [Liu, & Tsyvinski, 2021;Deniz, 2019;; macroeconomic news [Guizani & Nafti, 2019]; and social media attention [Liu, & Tsyvinski, 2021;Luu & Huynh, 2019;, including information demand (google search) [Aalborg et al, 2018] and Twitters tweets [Shen, Urquhart & Wang, 2019].…”