Bicentennial decrease of the solar constant leads to the Earth’s unbalanced heat budget and deep climate cooling

Abdusamatov, Kh. I.

doi:10.3103/s088459131202002x

Cited by 14 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Even typical short term variations of 0.1% in incident the total solar irradiance exceed all other energy sources (such as natural radioactivity in Earth's core) combined. Thus, the proportion of energy absorbed by the Earth decreases at the same rates [15,16,18,19,21,29,31]. The lower envelope curve in figure 3 joining together the smoothed minimum values of the TSI level in some successive 11-year cycles (common level relative to which the 11-year cyclic variations of the TSI occur) is a component of quasibicentennial quasiperiodic variation in the TSI [15][16][17][18][19]29].…”

Section: The Decrease Of the Tsi In The Phase Decline Of The Quasibicmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This, in turn, will result in an enhanced albedo of the Earth's surface (due to the increase in snow and ice cover, etc. ), reduced concentration of water vapor, which is a dominant factor in the greenhouse effect, as well as carbon dioxide and some other components of the atmosphere [15,16,29,31,35]. Let us note that water vapor absorbs around 68% of the integral power of the intrinsic long-wave emission of the Earth surface, while carbon dioxide -only approximately 12% (Figure 4).…”

Section: The Decrease Of the Tsi In The Phase Decline Of The Quasibicmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Let us note that the level of maximum of the 11-year component of TSI has decreased within four years of the 24 th cycle by -0.7 W/m 2 with respect to the maximum level of the 23 rd cycle. As a result the most probable onset time of the Solar Grand Minimum of Maunder type is expected around 2043 ± 11 [15][16][17][18][19][20]29,[31][32][33][34][35][36]. We can predict further decrease in the TSI, based on ever accelerating decrease of its 11-year and quasibicentennial components observed since the early 1990s, similar to the Maunder Minimum; this decrease (with decreasing accuracy) may reach 1363.4 ± 0.8 W m -2 , 1361.0 ± 1.6 Wm -2 , and a deep minimum of 1359.7 ± 2.4 Wm -2 at the minima between cycles 24/25, 25/26 and 26/27, respectively ( Figure 5).…”

Section: The Decrease Of the Tsi In The Phase Decline Of The Quasibicmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The directions of their development since 1998 do not comply with each other. In 1998 -2005 the Earth reached the maximum of the warming [16,29,31,35].…”

Section: Increasing Global Temperature On the Earth Has Stopped Sincementioning

confidence: 99%

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Grand Minimum of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to the Little Ice Age

Abdussamatov¹

2012

J Geol Geosci

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Quasibicentennial variation of the energy solar radiation absorbed by the Earth remains uncompensated by the energy emission to space over the interval of time that is determined by the thermal inertia. That is why the debit and credit parts of the average annual energy budget of the terrestrial globe with its air and water envelope are always in an unbalanced state, which is the basic state of the climatic system. The average annual balance of the thermal budget of the system Earth-atmosphere during long time periods will reliably determine the course and value of both the energy excess accumulated by the Earth or the energy deficit in the thermal budget, which, with account for the data of the forecasted variations of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) in the future, can define and predict well in advance the direction and amplitude of the forthcoming climate changes with high accuracy. Since the early 90 has been observed a decrease in both the TSI and the portion of energy absorbed by the Earth. The Earth as a planet will also have a negative balance in the energy budget in the future, because the Sun has entered the decline phase of the quasibicentennial cycle of the TSI variations. This will lead to a drop in the temperature and to the beginning of the epoch of the Little Ice Age approximately since the year 2014. The increase in the Bond (global) albedo and the decrease in the greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere will lead to an additional reduction of the absorbed solar energy and reduce the greenhouse effect. The influence of the consecutive chain of feedback effects will lead to additional drop of temperature, which can surpass the influence of the effect of the TSI decrease. The start of Grand Maunder-type Minimum of the TSI of the quasibicentennial cycle is to be anticipated around the year 2043 ± 11 and the beginning of the phase of deep cooling of the 19th Little Ice Age in the past 7,500 years in the year 2060 ± 11. Longterm cyclic variations of the TSI are the main fundamental cause of the corresponding climate variations.

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Section: The Decrease Of the Tsi In The Phase Decline Of The Quasibicmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Decrease Of the Tsi In The Phase Decline Of The Quasibicmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Decrease Of the Tsi In The Phase Decline Of The Quasibicmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The directions of their development since 1998 do not comply with each other. In 1998 -2005 the Earth reached the maximum of the warming [16,29,31,35].…”

Section: Increasing Global Temperature On the Earth Has Stopped Sincementioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Grand Minimum of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to the Little Ice Age

Abdussamatov¹

2012

J Geol Geosci

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“…A lot of international research can be found on the structure of the radiation balance and analyses of the different factors shaping its elements and their values (Beljaars and Holstaga 1991, Oke 1995, Gilgen et al 1998, Liepert 2002, Geiger et al 2003, Pozo-Vazques et al 2004, Hicke 2005, Rottman et al 2005, Romanou et al 2007, Wild et al 2008, Abdusamatov et al 2012. In Poland, radiation balance is also the subject of many studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Structure of radiation balance in diverse types of relief

Caputa¹,

Wojkowski²

2015

Annals of Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Land Reclamation

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Structure of radiation balance in diverse types of relief. The article presents the results of research on the structure of radiation balance in the full spectrum in diverse types of relief. The study was carried out on the Kraków-Częstochowa Upland (Poland). The varying terrain, its forms, expositions and slopes, large denivelations, and the varying land cover and land use make this small area very diverse as far as radiation conditions are concerned. On the basis of an actinometrical study the structure of radiation balance was assessed in two distinct morphologic terrain forms: the bottom of the valley and the plateau. It was proved that the global solar radiation (K↓) reaching the bottom of the valley in one year was on average 15% lower than the solar energy reaching the plateau. The all wave radiation balance (Q*) at the bottom of the valley was 16% less than on the plateau. The result of complex radiation conditions in the diversified relief was the occurrence of a mosaic of plant groups with distinct requirements.

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Moon-Based Monitoring of the Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Climate, Near-Earth Asteroids and Comets, Potentially Habitable Exoplanets, Supernovae and Novae

Abdussamatov

2024

J Indian Soc Remote Sens

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Bicentennial decrease of the solar constant leads to the Earth’s unbalanced heat budget and deep climate cooling

Cited by 14 publications

References 12 publications

Grand Minimum of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to the Little Ice Age

Grand Minimum of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to the Little Ice Age

Structure of radiation balance in diverse types of relief

Moon-Based Monitoring of the Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Climate, Near-Earth Asteroids and Comets, Potentially Habitable Exoplanets, Supernovae and Novae

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