Grand Minimum of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to the Little Ice Age

Abstract

Quasibicentennial variation of the energy solar radiation absorbed by the Earth remains uncompensated by the energy emission to space over the interval of time that is determined by the thermal inertia. That is why the debit and credit parts of the average annual energy budget of the terrestrial globe with its air and water envelope are always in an unbalanced state, which is the basic state of the climatic system. The average annual balance of the thermal budget of the system Earth-atmosphere during long time periods will reliably determine the course and value of both the energy excess accumulated by the Earth or the energy deficit in the thermal budget, which, with account for the data of the forecasted variations of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) in the future, can define and predict well in advance the direction and amplitude of the forthcoming climate changes with high accuracy. Since the early 90 has been observed a decrease in both the TSI and the portion of energy absorbed by the Earth. The Earth as a planet will also have a negative balance in the energy budget in the future, because the Sun has entered the decline phase of the quasibicentennial cycle of the TSI variations. This will lead to a drop in the temperature and to the beginning of the epoch of the Little Ice Age approximately since the year 2014. The increase in the Bond (global) albedo and the decrease in the greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere will lead to an additional reduction of the absorbed solar energy and reduce the greenhouse effect. The influence of the consecutive chain of feedback effects will lead to additional drop of temperature, which can surpass the influence of the effect of the TSI decrease. The start of Grand Maunder-type Minimum of the TSI of the quasibicentennial cycle is to be anticipated around the year 2043 ± 11 and the beginning of the phase of deep cooling of the 19th Little Ice Age in the past 7,500 years in the year 2060 ± 11. Longterm cyclic variations of the TSI are the main fundamental cause of the corresponding climate variations.

The complex planetary synchronization structure of the solar system

“…Although with some differences, the climatic predictions of Solheim (2013b), Akasofu (2013) and Vahrenholt and Lüning (2013) look quite similar: they predict a steady to moderate global cooling from 2000 to 2030 and a moderate warming for 2100 modulated by a ∼60 yr cycle. On the contrary, Abdusamatov (2013, figure 8) predicted an imminent cooling of the global temperature beginning since the year 2014 that will continue throughout the first half of the 21 st century that would yield a Little-Ice-Age period from ∼2050 to ∼2110 when the temperature would be ∼1.2 o C cooler than the 2000-2010 global temperature. Abdusamatov's predicted strong cooling would be induced by an approaching Maunder-like solar minimum period that would occur during the second half of the 21 st century.…”

“…11 projects a significant lower warming during the 21 st century than the CMIP5 average projection. Alternative empirical models for the global surface temperature have been proposed by Scafetta (2010Scafetta ( , 2012aScafetta ( ,d, 2013a, Solheim (2013b), Akasofu (2013), Abdusamatov (2013), Lüdecke et al (2013), Vahrenholt and Lüning (2013) and others. These models are based on the common assumption that the climate is characterized by specific quasi-harmonic oscillations linked to astronomical-solar cycles.…”

Barreiras na comunicação e alternativas para auxiliar a compreensão sobre as mudanças climáticas

“…As mudanças climáticas são explicadas por forçamentos radioativos naturais (como as atividades solar e vulcânica) e antropogênicos, e, conforme apresentado nos relatórios do IPCC de forma crescente é impossível justificar o aquecimento global das últimas décadas do século XX apenas pelos forçamentos naturais (IPCC, 2007;IPCC, 2014). No entanto, alguns poucos cientistas céticos negam que o planeta esteja passando por um período de aquecimento (Singer, 2011), afirmam que a influência humana sobre o clima é pouco provável e dificilmente seria detectada (Molion, 2008); outros acreditam que o aquecimento é uma realidade, mas não atribuem suas causas à atividade antrópica (Abdussamatov, 2013), e também há os que concordam com a influência antrópica sobre o aquecimento, porém afirmam que as consequências futuras apresentadas são exageradas, como Lomborg (2011).…”

Geophysical Consequences of Tropospheric Particulate Heating: Further Evidence that Anthropogenic Global Warming is Principally Caused by Particulate Pollution

“…For more than three billion years, as long as life has existed on Earth, the surface of our planet has maintained a remarkably stable state of thermal equilibrium through the aggregate-effect of numerous natural processes, despite being bombarded by potentially variable solar radiation from above [14,15] and potentially variable planetary energy sources from below, including georeactor nuclear fission energy [16][17][18][19] and stored protoplanetary compression energy [20][21][22]. Decades ago, considering the everincreasing scale of human activity, it might have been prudent to engage in open scientific debates and discussions to ascertain with reasonable certainty the nature and extent that human activities might be altering those natural processes.…”