Biased samples not mode of presentation: Re-examining the apparent underweighting of rare events in experience-based choice

Rakow, Tim; Demes, Kali A.; Newell, Ben R.

doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2008.02.001

Cited by 131 publications

(200 citation statements)

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“…Previously, research has focused on the psychological endowment of the information foragers in experience-based decision making, for instance, in terms of short-term memory capacity (Rakow et al, 2008), and the ability to think rationally (Lejarraga, 2010). Less progress had been made in understanding how ecological properties shape search.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Consequently, we have recently learned much about the psychology of search in decisions from experience. We now know, for instance, that in the sampling paradigm (a) people tend to rely on fairly small samplesranging mostly from 11 to 19 draws, amounting to nearly 7 ± 2 draws from each distribution-thereby attenuating the impact of rare events (see Hau, Pleskac, & Hertwig, 2010, Table 1); (b) people respond to incentives such that increasing the monetary stakes substantially boosts sampling efforts (Hau, Pleskac, Kiefer, & Hertwig, 2008); (c) small samples amplify the difference between the expected average earnings, thus making the options more distinct and choice easier ; (d) people's short-term memory capacity is positively correlated with the size of the drawn sample (r = .36; Rakow, Demes, & Newell, 2008); (e) people endowed with high numeracy draw larger samples than those with low numeracy (Lejarraga, 2010); (f) people who report to have a high ability in rational thinking draw larger samples than those with low ability (Lejarraga, 2010); and (g) people tend to adopt one of two idealized search policies (piece-wise vs. round-wise search strategy, with the former involving more switching between options), with switching frequency being negatively correlated with sample size (r = À.44) and positively associated with a decision strategy conducive to rare events being underweighted (Hills & Hertwig, 2010).…”

Section: Search In Decisions From Experiencementioning

confidence: 99%

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How choice ecology influences search in decisions from experience

2012

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a b s t r a c tResearch into human decision-making has often sidestepped the question of search despite its importance across a wide range of domains such as search for food, mates, allies, visual targets or information. Recently, research on decisions from experience has made progress in finding out how individual characteristics shape search for information. Surprisingly little is known, however, about how the properties of the choice ecology shape people's search. To fill this void, we analyzed how two key ecological properties influence search effort: domain of choice (gains vs. losses) and experienced variance (variance vs. no variance). Many people search longer when facing the prospect of losses relative to gains. Moreover, most people search more in options in which they experience variance relative to options they experience as invariant. We conclude that two factors that have been identified as important determinants of choice also influence search of information.Ó 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. IntroductionFor Herbert Simon, one of the most influential economists and cognitive scientists of the second half of the 20th century, search was perhaps the key cognitive process of human life. For instance, in his work with Allen Newell, he conceptualized problem-solving as search for a path through a problem space with the goal of finding a route linking the problem's initial state to the goal state via intermediate steps and subgoals (Newell & Simon, 1972). Search also figures prominently in his notion of ''satisficing'' (Simon, 1956(Simon, , 1990. Satisficing is a method one can recruit when choosing from a set of alternatives (e.g., job candidates, mates) that one encounters sequentially and when little is known about the possible alternatives further down the road. Satisficing means that the decision maker sets an aspiration level and terminates sequential search for alternatives as soon as one is found whose value exceeds the aspiration level. Finally, in a grand metaphor of human life, Simon (1996) depicted our existence as search through a ''life's maze'' (p. 166), representing a multiplicity of needs and wants, and the need to ''survive without drawing upon superhuman powers of intelligence and computation'' (p. 175).Notwithstanding the importance of search as a behavioral and cognitive process across a wide range of domains-foraging for food, visual search for targets, memory search in recall and recognition tasks, the search for information on the web, and the search for mates in social environments (Todd, Hills, & Robbins, 2012)-research on behavioral decision-making (e.g., research on inductive and logical reasoning) and cognition (e.g., research on moral reasoning) has often sidestepped questions of search by using tasks in which summary information is conveniently displayed before the respondents. Past research on risky choice exemplifies this methodological proclivity. Decision researchers, using choice between monetary 0010-0277/$ -see front matter Ó

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Search In Decisions From Experiencementioning

confidence: 99%

How choice ecology influences search in decisions from experience

2012

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“…In order to map the psychology of search in decisions from experience, previous research has investigated the role of properties of individuals' cognition, such as working memory capacity (Rakow, Demes, & Newell, 2008), numeracy, and rational thinking (Lejarraga, 2010). Additionally, researchers have examined the properties of the choice ecology (e.g., magnitude of incentives, loss versus gain domain, short-versus long-run frame; Hau et al, 2008;Lejarraga, Hertwig, & Gonzalez, 2012;Wulff, Hills, & Hertwig, submitted for publication) and the interaction of ecology and cognition (e.g., amplification effect; .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fear shapes information acquisition in decisions from experience

2014

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a b s t r a c tBefore making decisions, people often need to explore their environment to learn about initially uncertain outcomes. To date, it remains unknown to what extent a person's emotional state shapes exploration in such decisions from experience. It has been suggested that fear regulates people's informational interface with the external world through its physiological expression (e.g., a more effective sampling of the visual field from widened eyes). We investigated whether-as suggested by appraisal tendency theories of emotions-the ''emotional feeling'' of fear triggers analogous changes in exploration, in terms of increased information sampling in decisions from experience. In two studies, one with naturally occurring emotional states and one with induced emotional states, we found that fearful (relative to happy) people sampled substantially more information before making a final choice. These different degrees of exploration influenced the experience of rarity and, in turn, final choices. We discuss the extent to which increased information acquisition is adaptive.

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“…If sampling error was the sole root of the gap, then presenting respondents in the description condition the same information that others experienced ( yoking ) should eliminate the gap. In one study it did (Rakow, Demes, & Newell, 2008 ); in another it did for small samples but not for large ones ; see these authors' discussion of trivial choices as one possible explanation for the mixed results obtained). The gap persisted even when people were presented both descriptions and experience rather than descriptions only (Jessup, Bishara, & Busemeyer, 2008 ).…”

Section: Fig 82mentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Some researchers have argued that the gap in the sampling paradigm is statistical in nature (Fox & Hadar, 2006 ;Hadar & Fox, 2009 ;Rakow et al, 2008 ); others have proposed that the sampling error is not the sole cause (Hau et al, 2008Hertwig et al, 2004 ;Ungemach et al, 2009 ). Regardless of how this debate will advance, it is informative to go beyond the sampling paradigm.…”

Section: Fig 82mentioning

confidence: 99%