Beyond Yield Response: Weather Shocks and Crop Abandonment

Cui, Xiaomeng

doi:10.1086/709859

Cited by 26 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 51 publications

(34 reference statements)

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“…The findings in this article also build on the emerging literature on measuring agricultural adaptation to climate change. Specifically, finding induced adjustments in growing seasons complements previous studies that explicitly measure other behavioral adaptations, including crop choice, planting and harvesting decisions, double cropping, and input adjustments (e.g., Seo and Mendelsohn 2008; Kawasaki 2018; Cui 2020a, b; Aragón, Oteiza, and Rud 2021; Jagnani et al 2021). The evidence of a warming‐induced shift in growing season is also useful in explaining those documented acreage expansion and increased double cropping that would not have occurred without warming.…”

mentioning

confidence: 63%

Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change through Growing Season Adjustments: Evidence from Corn in China

Cui¹,

Xie²

2021

American J Agri Economics

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Recent studies have shown that climate change will impose severe challenges on agriculture with profound implications. Although some hypothetical simulations have suggested that an optimal re‐arrangement of the growing season can substantially mitigate yield losses under future climate, no causal estimate has been provided on quantifying the extent to which farmers are adapting through growing‐season adjustments. Using a novel microlevel data with detailed crop progress information in China over 1993–2013, we show that both planting dates and growing season lengths significantly respond to contemporaneous temperature and precipitation. Our estimates suggest that, for a median site in our sample, the adaptive behavior in growing season adjustments can lead to a two to six days earlier planting date and another three to six days shorter growing season by the end of this century. These induced adjustments can avoid up to 9% of the crop damages caused by climate change. However, our empirical analysis does not find clear evidence of long‐run response or accompanied input adjustments, suggesting potential for developing policies and tools to further aid the adaptive process.

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mentioning

confidence: 63%

Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change through Growing Season Adjustments: Evidence from Corn in China

Cui¹,

Xie²

2021

American J Agri Economics

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“…Second, we note that a recent study [14] has studied a phenomenon similar to crop failure. The study relied on corn and soybean 'harvest ratios,' defined as the ratio of harvested acreage to planted acreage.…”

Section: Crop Failure Rate In Usmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…We present here the results of a uniform 3 • C warming, accompanied with region-and-season specific precipitation changes. For comparison purposes, we project the change under different temperature increase scenarios (supplementary figures [10][11][12][13][14][15][16].…”

Section: Climate Change Impact On Crop Failurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…That is, on top of reducing yield of harvested hectares, climate change could also reduce the number of hectares harvested. Empirical studies applying panel data methods to harvest ratios (the ratio of harvested acreage to planted acreage) [12][13][14] have also measured a link between weather and acreage loss. Finally, studies in yield variability [15][16][17] have also shown that the impact of weather and climate change are not limited to average yield.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change to increase crop failure in U.S.

Kim

Mendelsohn

2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The literature has documented that climate change is likely to reduce crop yields of harvested acres in the United States. This study uses panel data methods to document that climate change could also reduce harvested area. We find that that “crop failures” are sensitive to spring and fall temperature conditions. Using perturbations of temperature and precipitation conditions, we show that a uniform 1◦C increase in temperature across the U.S. with no adaptation is expected to cause about 3.2 million additional failed acres in the United States, which is equal to a 0.9% decline in acreage. These harmful impacts are predicted to be stronger in the southern than northern United States. For illustrative purposes, we also examine a uniform 3◦C warming scenario with no adaptation, and project that damage increases to 11 million lost acres, about a 3% decrease in crop acreage. Projected increases in local precipitation have little effect. The effect of crop failure must be added to previously measured reductions in crop yields from harvested acres, implying climate change is likely to be more harmful to American crop production than previously thought.

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“…Wheat is one of the most important staple foods consumed globally, with the USA producing 8% of the world's total production [3][4][5]. While global wheat demand is expected to increase by 26% by mid-century [6], wheat production is projected to be negatively impacted by climate change [7][8][9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decreased wheat production in the USA from climate change driven by yield losses rather than crop abandonment

2021

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An increase in global average surface temperature over the 21st century will affect food production. There is still uncertainty if the source of the production losses caused by climate change could be driven either by lower yield or reduced area harvested. We use county-level production data on winter wheat coupled with fine-scale weather outcomes between 1981-2007 to examine the impact of climate change on winter wheat production in Kansas. We decompose the total impact of weather variables through both the yield and harvested acreage channels. We find that an insignificant portion—both in terms of magnitude and statistical significance—of the production losses are due to reduced harvested acres (i.e., crop abandonment). The proportion harvested only account for 14.88% and 21.71% of the total damages under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 and neither effect is statistically significant. An implication of this result implies that studies that only examine climate impacts on harvested yields are not significantly underestimating the climate change impacts on production.

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Beyond Yield Response: Weather Shocks and Crop Abandonment

Cited by 26 publications

References 51 publications

Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change through Growing Season Adjustments: Evidence from Corn in China

Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change through Growing Season Adjustments: Evidence from Corn in China

Climate change to increase crop failure in U.S.

Decreased wheat production in the USA from climate change driven by yield losses rather than crop abandonment

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