Climate change to increase crop failure in U.S.

Kim, Seung Min; Mendelsohn, Robert

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acac41

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Geospatial methods can use historical remote sensing imagery to gauge LULC over the last approximately 50 years and could be used to identify agricultural lands that have remained in cultivation and likely have higher LD, and areas where land has been moved to non-cultivated land use (e.g., reforested, pasture) where LD status has been improved. This could compound agricultural challenges caused by ongoing climate change impacts, which will likely increase crop failure in many regions of the US [33]. The concept of LD focuses on land and land use, but the role of inherent soil degradation status is often not included.…”

Section: The Question Of Inclusion Of Inherently Degraded Soils Into ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible Integration of Soil Information into Land Degradation Analysis for the United Nations (UN) Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) Concept: A Case Study of the Contiguous United States of America (USA)

Mikhailova,

Zurqani,

Lin

et al. 2024

Soil Systems

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Soil makes important contributions to the United Nations (UN) Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) concept and targets; however, currently, soil is not integrated into measurable information (e.g., indicators, metrics) to monitor land degradation (LD) patterns and trends. This study examines the role of soil in LDN in the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), and UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 15: Life on Land). This study is specifically focused on the LDN and biodiversity loss as they relate to an indicator 15.3.1 Proportion of land that is degraded over total land area. Tracking of LD status can be improved by using detailed soils databases combined with satellite-derived land cover maps. This study has applied these newly improved methods to quantify and map the anthropogenic LD status and trends in the contiguous United States of America (USA), as well as to identify potential land areas for nature-based solutions (NBS) to compensate for LD. Anthropogenic LD in 2016 in the contiguous USA affected over two million square kilometers, about one-third of the country’s total area, with high variability by state. Between 2001 and 2016, LD in the USA showed an overall increase of 1.5%, with some states exhibiting increases in degraded land while other states had overall improvements to their land. All ten soil orders present in the contiguous USA have been anthropogenically degraded, with Mollisols, Alfisols, and Vertisols having the highest LD levels. Compensating for LD requires a variety of strategies and measures (e.g., NBS), which often require additional land. In 2016, the potential land area for NBS was over two million square kilometers, an area approximately equal to that of degraded land. Some of the states that have high proportions of land available for potential NBS are dominated by soils (Aridisols) typical of deserts and therefore may have less promise for NBS. The variability of LD needs to be evaluated at finer spatial scales for realistic LDN analysis.

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Section: The Question Of Inclusion Of Inherently Degraded Soils Into ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible Integration of Soil Information into Land Degradation Analysis for the United Nations (UN) Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) Concept: A Case Study of the Contiguous United States of America (USA)

Mikhailova,

Zurqani,

Lin

et al. 2024

Soil Systems

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“…Despite advancements in technology and other fronts, weather and climate influence agricultural systems. Changing climate variables can substantially affect crop yields [29].…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This model constraint is represented by Equation (28). Constraint (29) shows that the total volume sold on the domestic market of processed products must be between a minimum and maximum value, as defined by the shipper.…”

Section: First Stagementioning

confidence: 99%

A Two-Stage Stochastic Linear Programming Model for Tactical Planning in the Soybean Supply Chain

2023

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Background: The soybean market is representative of the world. Brazil is the largest producer and exporter of this crop and has low production costs but high logistical costs, which are influenced mainly by transport costs. Added to these characteristics, the disputed grain supply, the possibility of crop failure, and the randomness of some parameters that influence the soybean supply chain make decisions even more challenging. Methods: To mathematically model this problem, we carried out an analysis of the scientific production related to grain supply chain and the models used to address the problem, as well as a document analysis and a case study. Results: This paper proposes a new two-stage stochastic linear programming model with fixed recourse for tactical planning in the soybean supply chain from the perspective of the shipper under take or pay contracts over a one-year time horizon. The first-stage variables are the grain purchasing decisions and the volumes of rail and road transportation hired in advance. The model addresses 243 scenarios derived from four uncertainty sources: the purchase and sale prices of raw agricultural products on the spot market, the probability of crop failure, and the external demand. Conclusions: The model is successfully applied to a soybean trade firm in Brazil with expected gain of US$4,299,720 when using the stochastic model instead of the deterministic model. The stochastic model protected the firm from take or pay fines and crop failures, contracting a smaller volume of rail transport than what the company does.

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“…The intensification of climate change has posed a major challenge to global crop production [1] How to adapt crop production to the stress of meteorological factors such as Agronomy 2024, 14, 1154 2 of 16 changes in light environment, persistent warming, extreme rainfall and drought has become a pressing issue [2]. Crop growth and development are influenced by a combination of environmental, cultivation management, and gene regulation [3,4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improvement of Climate Resource Utilization in the Southwestern Hilly Region through the Construction of a New Multi-Maturing Cropping System

Kong,

Li,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Agronomy

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The construction of an appropriate cropping pattern is crucial for the improvement of regional agricultural economic efficiency and sustainable development. Despite previous efforts, there remains a gap in optimizing cropping patterns that fully leverage climate resources to enhance production efficiency. This study addresses this gap by systematically comparing the differences in climate resource allocation, production efficiency and crop response among models by constructing four new triple-maturing cropping models at typical ecological sites in the hilly areas of southwest China. To solve the above problems, we constructed eight cropping patterns and classified them to three as follows: the Traditional Double Cropping System, the Traditional Triple Cropping System, the Novel Triple Cropping System. The results showed that the new multi-maturing planting pattern was significantly better than the traditional two-maturing netting pattern and the traditional three-maturing planting pattern in terms of light, temperature and water productivity. Compared with the traditional two-maturity net cropping model and the traditional three-maturity cropping model, the new cropping model increased light energy productivity by 97.88% and 50.00%, respectively; light energy use by an average of 0.48% and 0.31%; cumulative temperature productivity by an average of 84.70% and 49.14%; and rainfall productivity by an average of 101.04% and 49.61%. An assessment of the light, temperature and water meteorological resource use efficiency of the different treatments showed that the resource use efficiency of the new multi-maturing planting pattern was on average 111.58% and 74.78% higher than that of the traditional two-maturing net planting pattern and the traditional three-maturing planting pattern, with the T6 pattern having the highest resource use efficiency. The new multi-ripening cropping pattern has demonstrated production stability in response to changes in light, temperature and water resources, better adapting to weekly climate changes, stabilizing yields and improving efficiency. In summary, the results of this study can provide a theoretical basis for optimizing cropping patterns and promoting the use of climate resources in agriculture and sustainable development. Future research should focus on further refining these models, exploring their adaptability to various climatic conditions, and evaluating their long-term economic and environmental impacts.

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Climate change to increase crop failure in U.S.

Cited by 9 publications

References 30 publications

Possible Integration of Soil Information into Land Degradation Analysis for the United Nations (UN) Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) Concept: A Case Study of the Contiguous United States of America (USA)

Possible Integration of Soil Information into Land Degradation Analysis for the United Nations (UN) Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) Concept: A Case Study of the Contiguous United States of America (USA)

A Two-Stage Stochastic Linear Programming Model for Tactical Planning in the Soybean Supply Chain

Improvement of Climate Resource Utilization in the Southwestern Hilly Region through the Construction of a New Multi-Maturing Cropping System

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