Between the bear and the dragon: multivectorism in Kazakhstan as a model strategy for secondary powers

Abstract

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Kazakhstan has followed a foreign policy of multivector diplomacy since its independence from the former Soviet Union. While multivectorism was a strategy of necessity in its early years, it has evolved to empower Kazakhstan to effectively protect its independence and negotiate its relationship with the great powers on its borders and further afield. After the 2014 Russian seizure of Crimea it is noteworthy that Kazakhstan has maintained positive relations with Russia while asserting its sovereignty and independent foreign policy. In this article we investigate how Kazakhstan has negotiated the rise of China, taking advantage of the economic opportunities it presents. We trace the foreign policy of Kazakhstan from independence forward, examining its relationships with its Great Power neighbours and its role in international organizations and negotiations. We posit that multivectorism is similar to the strategy of omni-enmeshment and complex balancing seen in south-east Asia. Both are effective methods for secondary powers to protect their sovereignty and to coexist with Great Powers without becoming their client states. Kazakhstan's approach to foreign policy is an exemplar for secondary states. This article contributes to the literature on the strategic decision-making of secondary powers and to the theoretical analysis of the foreign policy of Kazakhstan during a critical moment of transition from the long-time rule of Nursultan Nazarbayev to the presidency of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.</jats:p>

Trade-offs and inconsistencies of the Russian foreign policy: The case of Eurasia

“…Kazakhstan’s “multi-vector” foreign policy is an example of a successful hedging of both against Russia and China. Vanderhill et al (2020, p. 980) emphasize that given Russia’s historical role as a colonial power in the post-Soviet region, the priority for Kazakhstan is to avoid becoming a client state of Russia, while at the same time Kazakhstan also fears China’s dominance. These authors provide a detailed analysis of Kazakhstan’s very carefully calibrated hedging position amid the two regional hegemons (Vanderhill et al, 2020).…”

“…Vanderhill et al (2020, p. 980) emphasize that given Russia’s historical role as a colonial power in the post-Soviet region, the priority for Kazakhstan is to avoid becoming a client state of Russia, while at the same time Kazakhstan also fears China’s dominance. These authors provide a detailed analysis of Kazakhstan’s very carefully calibrated hedging position amid the two regional hegemons (Vanderhill et al, 2020). Preserving its alignments with Moscow, Kazakhstan considers rapprochement with China as valuable option in the overall framework of its developmental strategy that presupposes keeping and even expanding various forms of bilateral and multilateral cooperation.…”

“…Preserving its alignments with Moscow, Kazakhstan considers rapprochement with China as valuable option in the overall framework of its developmental strategy that presupposes keeping and even expanding various forms of bilateral and multilateral cooperation. The hedging strategy has allowed Kazakhstan not to become client state of any of the two hegemons promoting its own political and economic interests, and clearly asserting and protecting its sovereignty (Ohle et al, 2020 Vanderhill et al (2020).…”

Инициативы Казахстана В Области Экономической И Транспортной Взаимосвязанности В Рамках ОБСЕ: Стимулирование Торговли И Сопротивление Нормам

“…Страна в значительной степени проложила путь к объявлению Центральной Азии зоной, свободной от ядерного оружия. С некоторым успехом Казахстан активно позиционирует себя как страну, активно реализующую амбициозную дипломатическую и внешнеполитическую повестку дня, в частности, в качестве честного мирного посредника, например, в качестве принимающей стороны процесса урегулирования в Сирии 30 . Пожалуй, не случайно на упомянутой выше неофициальной встрече министров иностранных дел стран ОБСЕ в Словакии в 2019 году представитель Казахстана не только выступил с предложением разместить в стране центр по взаимосвязанности, но и упомянул о намерении провести в Казахстане встречу по урегулированию в Афганистане 31 .…”

Kasachstans Konnektivitätsambitionen in der OSZE: Handelsförderung und Normumgehung

“…Insbesondere hat sich Kasachstan mit einigem Erfolg und einer ehrgeizigen diplomatischen und außen-politischen Agenda vor allem als Friedensvermittler positioniert, zum Beispiel als Gastgeber des Prozesses zur Beilegung des Syrien-Konflikts. 30 Es ist vielleicht kein Zufall, dass Kasachstan auf dem bereits erwähnten informellen OSZE-Ministertreffen in der Slowakei 2019 nicht nur den Vorschlag für die Einrichtung eines CSC publik machte, sondern sich auch als Ort für ein Treffen zur Beilegung des Afghanistankonflikts ins Gespräch brachte. 31 Das Land ist somit in beschränktem Maße zu einem Garanten für regionale und internationale Sicherheit avanciert.…”