Benefits and risks of the Sanofi-Pasteur dengue vaccine: Modeling optimal deployment

Ferguson, Neil; Rodríguez-Barraquer, Isabel; Dorigatti, Ilaria; Mier-y-Terán-Romero, Luis; Laydon, Daniel J.; Cummings, Derek A. T.

doi:10.1126/science.aaf9590

Cited by 207 publications

(213 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Pemodelan matematika telah banyak digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi dan menganalisis dinamika penyebaran penyakit [1,2] termasuk untuk menganalisis keefektifan suatu intervensi kesehatan seperti keefektifan bakteri Wolbachia [3,4] atau vaksinasi [5,6]. Pada umumnya, model matematika penyebaran penyakit diformulasi dalam bentuk model matematika deterministik [7] atau stokastik [8].…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Analisis Sensitivitas Model Matematika Penyebaran Penyakit Dengan Vaksinasi

Malorung

Blegur

Pangaribuan

et al. 2018

JMI

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AbstrakPemodelan matematika telah banyak digunakan untuk menganalisis dinamika penyebaran dan tingkat keefektifan strategi pencegahan penyakit. Penelitian ini fokus pada analisis model epidemi Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) dengan vaksinasi random dan model Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infected-Recovered (SVIR) pada saat lahir. Analisis sensitivitas dilakukan untuk mengetahui parameter yang berpengaruh pada jumlah individu terinfeksi dan ambang batas epidemik (basic reproduction number ). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pada model SIR, laju penularan (β) dan laju kesembuhan (γ) merupakan parameter yang paling berpengaruh terhadap basic reproduction number. Laju kelahiran dan kematian (µ), tingkat keefektifan vaksin (p) dan laju kesembuhan (γ) merupakan parameter yang berpengaruh pada titik tetap infected. Untuk model SVIR, laju penularan (β) dan laju kesembuhan (γ) merupakan parameter yang berpengaruh pada basic reproduction number, sedangkan laju kelahiran dan kematian (µ) dan laju kesembγan γ merupakan parameter yang berpengaruh pada titik tetap infected.Kata kunci: Model SIR, Model SVIR, Bilangan Reproduksi Dasar, Analisis Sensitivitas. AbstractMathematical model has been used to analyse the disease transmission dynamics and the efficacy of the eradication strategies against the diseases. We study SIR model with random vaccination and SVIR model with vaccination at birth. We analyse the sensitivity of the parameters on the basic reproduction number and the infected population. The results showed that for both models the transmission rate (β) and the recovery rate are the most influential parameters on the basic reproduction number. Furthermore, the vaccince efficacy (p) and the recovery rate ( γ) are the most influential parameters on the infected equilibrium.

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Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Analisis Sensitivitas Model Matematika Penyebaran Penyakit Dengan Vaksinasi

Malorung

Blegur

Pangaribuan

et al. 2018

JMI

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“…8 , 9 A dengue infection mathematical model commissioned by WHO found increased protection could be expected if Dengvaxia was given to seropositives rather than to populations that included seronegatives. 10 Despite these warnings, the Philippine government announced the purchase of 3 million doses of Dengvaxia to be used to vaccinate one million 9 year-old children, a plan implemented beginning in April 2016. (www.sanofipasteur.com/…/World-s-First-Public-Dengue-Immunization-Program-Start.April 4, 2016 accessed 24 Jan 18).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Safety issues from a Phase 3 clinical trial of a live-attenuated chimeric yellow fever tetravalent dengue vaccine

Halstead

2018

Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics

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A tetravalent live-attenuated 3-dose vaccine composed of chimeras of yellow fever 17D and the four dengue viruses (CYD, also called Dengvaxia) completed phase 3 clinical testing in over 35,000 children leading to a recommendation that vaccine be administered to >/ = 9 year-olds residing in highly dengue- endemic countries. When clinical trial results were assessed 2 years after the first dose, vaccine efficacy among seropositives was high, but among seronegatives efficacy was marginal. Breakthrough dengue hospitalizations of vaccinated children occurred continuously over a period of 4–5 years post 3rd dose in an age distribution suggesting these children had been vaccinated when seronegative. This surmise was validated recently when the manufacturer reported that dengue NS1 IgG antibodies were absent in sera from hospitalized vaccinated children, an observation consistent with their having received Dengvaxia when seronegative. Based upon published efficacy data and in compliance with initial published recommendations by the manufacturer and WHO the Philippine government undertook to vaccinate 800,000-plus 9 year-olds starting in April 2016. Eighteen months later, dengue hospitalizations and a deaths were reported among vaccinated children. The benefits of administering Dengvaxia predicted by the manufacturer, WHO and others derive from scoring dengue hospitalizations of vaccinated children as vaccine failures rather than as vaccine enhanced dengue disease. Recommended regimens for administration of Dengvaxia should have been structured to warn of and avoid serious adverse events.

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“…It is approved for use for those aged 9-45 and recommended to prevent four DENV serotypes (DENV-1, 2, 3, and 4) [10][11][12].…”

Section: Successful Product: Dengvaxia ®mentioning

confidence: 99%