Being certain that negative events will happen or that positive events will not happen: Depressive predictive certainty and change in suicide ideation over time

Abstract

Introduction:Relatively little research has examined the precise components of hopelessness that increase vulnerability to suicidal thinking. We examined whether certainty about an absence of positive future outcomes (Certainty-AP) would more strongly predict suicide ideation over time than certainty about negative future outcomes (Certainty-N). Method: Young adults (N = 208), ages 18-34 (M = 19.08, SD = 2.22), with either recent suicide ideation, suicide attempt history, or past-year psychiatric diagnosis were assessed four times over 18 months. Results: We used multilevel modeling to assess within-participant differences in suicide ideation over time. Both Certainty-AP and Certainty-N predicted later suicide ideation above and beyond generalized hopelessness and depressive symptoms, when examined in separate models. However, Certainty-AP emerged as a stronger predictor of suicide ideation than Certainty-N when examined in the same model. Discussion: These findings suggest that certainty about an absence of positive future outcomes may have a more unique prospective relationship to SI than certainty about the presence of negative future outcomes. We discuss clinical and theoretical implications of these findings.

Induced optimism to lessen hopelessness-related cognitions among young adults at risk for suicidal thoughts and behavior

“…Contemporary psychological models of suicide suggest that hopelessness about the future plays a fundamental role in the onset of suicidal thoughts (e.g., Van Orden et al, 2010 ; Wenzel & Beck, 2008 ). Hopelessness predicts suicide ideation ( Wolfe et al, 2019 ; Alexopoulos et al, 2021 ; Ribeiro et al, 2018 ; Rosario-Williams et al, 2021 ), suicide attempts ( Ribeiro et al, 2018 ; Liu et al, 2018 ; Miranda-Mendizabal et al, 2019 ), and suicide deaths ( Beck et al, 2006 ; Brown et al, 2000 ; Ribeiro et al, 2018 ), making it a critical target of intervention. Understanding how to modify the hopelessness-related cognitions that give rise to suicidal thoughts may ultimately prevent the transition to suicide attempts and suicide deaths.…”