“…Seemingly conflicting results in judgment research can be understood if one is careful t4D distinguish between competence and performance and t o recognize that performance depends on many context-specific factors. It appears that performance is not governed by a single judgment process that can be described by a few basic principles ~~ For reviews of the literature on judgment, see Lichtenstein (1971), Slovic Fischhoff andLichtenstein (1977), Hammond et al, (1980), Hogarth (1980), Einhorn and Hogarth (1981), and Kahneman e t ul., (1982). For reviews of judgment research specifically applied to forecasting, see Kaheneman and Tversky (1979), Hogarth and Makridakis (1981), Einhorn and Hogarth (1982), Evans (1982), and Sjoberg (1982).…”