Bayesian Sequential Design Based on Dual Objectives for Accelerated Life Tests

Abstract

Traditional accelerated life test plans are typically based on optimizing the C-optimality for minimizing the variance of an interested quantile of the lifetime distribution. The traditional methods rely on some specified planning values for the model parameters, which are usually unknown prior to the actual tests. The ambiguity of the specified parameters can lead to suboptimal designs for optimizing the intended reliability performance. In this paper, we propose a sequential design strategy for life test plans based on considering dual objectives. In the early stage of the sequential experiment, we suggest to allocate more design locations based on optimizing the D-optimality to quickly gain precision in the estimated model parameters. In the later stage of the experiment, we can allocate more samples based on optimizing the C-optimality to maximize the precision of the estimated quantile of the lifetime distribution.We compare the proposed sequential design strategy with existing test plans considering only a single criterion and illustrate the new method with an example on fatigue testing of polymer composites.