Bayesian Multi‐Model Estimation of Fault Slip Distribution for Slow Slip Events in Southwest Japan: Effects of Prior Constraints and Uncertain Underground Structure

Agata, Ryoichiro; Nakata, Ryoko; Kasahara, Amato; Yagi, Y.; Seshimo, Yukinari; Yoshioka, Shoichi; Iinuma, Toshitaka

doi:10.1029/2021jb023712

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…The principal strain is expressed in terms of the strain in the two principal axes, and the direction of the principal axes, θ , is determined by the following Eq. (10).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Kobayashi and Hashimoto 4 found strain changes in the area east of Lake Biwa from the latter half of 2000, which is considered to be due to the L-SSE in the Tokai region. Ozawa et al 5,6 , Yoshioka et al 7 , Nakata et al 8 , Seshimo and Yoshioka 9 , and Agata et al 10 estimated the slip distribution of the L-SSEs in the Bungo Channel that occurred from 2009 to 2011 and from 2018 to 2019.…”

Section: Strain Accumulation and Release Associated With The Occurren...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Strain accumulation and release associated with the occurrence of SSEs in the subduction zones of the Japanese Islands

Kawabata

Yoshioka

2023

Sci Rep

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We investigated the spatiotemporal changes in strain associated with the occurrence of slow slip events (SSEs) in the subduction zones of the Japanese Islands and compared the spatial distribution of both the amount of strain accumulated for the period before and during the SSEs release using time series data from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). In this study, four SSEs were analysed: the Tokai long-term SSE (2000–2005), the Boso-Oki short-term SSE (2007), and the Bungo Channel long-term SSEs (2009–2011 and 2018–2019). As a result, we found strong negative correlations for all four dilatations before and during SSE occurrence. For these dilatations, we estimated the amount of strain released at the time of occurrence of the SSE relative to that accumulated during the period prior to the SSE. The result indicates that not all the accumulated strain before the SSEs was released when the SSEs occurred. Moreover, it is highly likely that the strain released by SSE is not only due to the strain accumulation just below the SSE occurrence region, but also due to the strain accumulation on the shallower plate boundary, which is a seismogenic zone for a future megathrust earthquake.

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“…The principal strain is expressed in terms of the strain in the two principal axes, and the direction of the principal axes, θ , is determined by the following Eq. (10).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Strain Accumulation and Release Associated With The Occurren...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Strain accumulation and release associated with the occurrence of SSEs in the subduction zones of the Japanese Islands

Kawabata

Yoshioka

2023

Sci Rep

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“…Although it is beyond the scope of this study, the mathematical determination of the optimal number and size of subfaults is an important issue. For example, Agata et al (2022) selected the size of subfaults based on the widely applicable Bayesian information criterion (Watanabe 2013).…”

Section: Interpretation Of "The Uncertainty Of Slip Area" and Its Fut...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical experiment toward simultaneous estimation of the spatiotemporal evolution of interseismic fault slips and block motions in southwest Japan

Tanaka,

Kano,

Nishimura

et al. 2024

Earth Planets Space

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Interseismic strain around southwest Japan can be attributed to slip phenomena on the plate interface and processes inside the continental plate, such as block motions and inland fault slips. Although many crustal deformation analyses have been carried out, the simultaneous estimation of these phenomena and comprehensive discussion regarding the effect on the total strain budget remain topics to be investigated. In this study, we conducted numerical experiment to evaluate the possibility of simultaneously monitoring the spatiotemporal evolution of interseismic fault slips and block motions based on state-space modeling. We aimed to estimate fault slips and block motions using the time series of dense continuous Global Navigation Satellite System sites covering southwest Japan, encompassing 25 years from 1996 onward. We calculated synthetic block motions of the forearc region, monotonically increasing back slips on block boundary faults, and long-term slow slip events in the Tokai region, Kii Channel, and Bungo Channel. Subsequently, we generated the expected synthetic displacement time-series at GNSS stations. Applying Kalman filtering, we successfully estimated the spatiotemporal evolution of block motions, cumulative back slips, multiple slow slip events occurring in different regions. Although the contributions of fault slips and block motions showed slight trade-off, main characteristics of the slip distributions and the direction of block motions were well-recovered. We recovered slow slip events with slips of 5–10 cm or larger. We investigated the estimation uncertainty and separation precision of the unknown parameters using the covariance matrix estimated by Kalman filtering. Focusing on the structure of the non-diagonal component of the covariance matrix, we evaluated the complex effects of site and subfault locations on the estimated slip spatial distribution bias. For instance, the extent of the correlation between subfaults suggested that the three slow slip regions have different tendency of the uncertainties of slip areas, extending toward landside, seaward, or both of them. Our framework enables the comprehensive evaluation of the contributions and uncertainties of various deformation sources covering the entire subduction zone. Graphical abstract

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“…These algorithms focus on the statistical property of the fault geometry uncertainties in the case of a two‐dimensional (2‐D) fault plane (i.e., its dip and position uncertainties). In addition, the characterization of the uncertainties of a three‐dimensional (3‐D) fault surface has recently been investigated (Agata et al., 2022). Another attempt to mitigate the impact of the uncertainties of the fault geometry was conducted by inverting the fault slip distribution simultaneously with the fault geometry (Fukahata & Wright, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian Inversion of Finite‐Fault Earthquake Slip Model Using Geodetic Data, Solving for Non‐Planar Fault Geometry, Variable Slip, and Data Weighting

2023

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Evaluating seismic hazard and understanding earthquake preparation processes require precise fault slip models which characterize the fault geometry and slip distribution. A precise fault slip model can assist in probing the accumulation and release of stress as well as the frictional behavior on the fault (Caniven et al., 2017;Collettini et al., 2011;Manighetti, 2005). Over the past decades, the temporal and spatial resolutions of the geodetic techniques which measure ground deformation have been significantly advanced. These geodetic techniques include global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), optical imagery,

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Bayesian Multi‐Model Estimation of Fault Slip Distribution for Slow Slip Events in Southwest Japan: Effects of Prior Constraints and Uncertain Underground Structure

Cited by 3 publications

References 73 publications

Strain accumulation and release associated with the occurrence of SSEs in the subduction zones of the Japanese Islands

Strain accumulation and release associated with the occurrence of SSEs in the subduction zones of the Japanese Islands

Numerical experiment toward simultaneous estimation of the spatiotemporal evolution of interseismic fault slips and block motions in southwest Japan

Bayesian Inversion of Finite‐Fault Earthquake Slip Model Using Geodetic Data, Solving for Non‐Planar Fault Geometry, Variable Slip, and Data Weighting

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