Bayesian Inversion of Finite‐Fault Earthquake Slip Model Using Geodetic Data, Solving for Non‐Planar Fault Geometry, Variable Slip, and Data Weighting

Wei, Guoguang; Chen, Kejie; Meng, Haoran

doi:10.1029/2022jb025225

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 86 publications

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“…Many other fault properties could also influence the resulting simulated earthquake statistics, including slip rake (slip direction), normal and shear stress conditions, fault frictional properties and fault roughness, all of which are here assumed to be homogeneous along the fault surfaces. A recent study of Bayesian finite‐fault inversion has shown that variable fault slip directions allow better determination of the nonplanar fault geometries associated with large earthquakes (Wei et al., 2023). In addition, frictional properties of large seismogenic faults may vary spatially and/or temporally (e.g., before, during, and after an earthquake).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Variable Fault Geometries and Slip Rates on Earthquake Catalogs From Physics‐Based Simulations of a Normal Fault

Delogkos,

Howell,

Seebeck

et al. 2023

JGR Solid Earth

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Physics‐based earthquake simulators have been developed to overcome the relatively short duration and incompleteness of historical earthquake and paleoseismic records, respectively. These simulators have the potential to be a useful addition to seismic hazard assessment as they produce millions of synthetic earthquakes over thousands to millions of years using predefined fault geometries and slip rates. Due to the sparsity of fault data and the computational expense of the modeling, it is common to simplify earthquake simulator input parameters. Fault surfaces are typically characterized by simplified mapped traces and constant dip with depth, with slip rates that are often assumed to be uniform over the fault plane. This study uses the well‐defined 3D geometry of an active normal fault in offshore Aotearoa New Zealand, the Cape Egmont Fault, to demonstrate the impact of using nonuniform slip rates and nonplanar fault geometries on the resulting synthetic earthquakes from the earthquake simulator RSQSim. Adopting variable slip rates that decrease to zero along the fault tipline (rather than uniform slip rates) reduces unrealistically high nucleation rates of seismicity along fault edges. Introduction of complex 3D fault geometries, including fault segmentation and bends on kilometer scales, and variable slip rates produces less characteristic earthquake populations, increasing the number of M6‐7 moderate‐large magnitude events. Incorporation of variable fault geometries and slip rates in physics‐based simulators may modify the seismic hazards estimated from synthetic earthquake catalogs.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Variable Fault Geometries and Slip Rates on Earthquake Catalogs From Physics‐Based Simulations of a Normal Fault

Delogkos,

Howell,

Seebeck

et al. 2023

JGR Solid Earth

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Driven by its strengths in probabilistic inference, Bayesian probability theory is gaining considerable traction in earthquake science for tackling complex models. By synergistically integrating historical seismic data, geological information, and real-time monitoring data, Bayesian models refine earthquake probability estimates and illuminate the intricate interplay between stress accumulation, fault geometry, and seismic release [24]. Notably, the Bayesian approach has been applied in various contexts within earthquake forecasts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Bayesian Approach for Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes Using Thermal Anomalies from Satellite Observations

Jiao,

Shan

2024

Remote Sensing

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Studies have demonstrated the potential of satellite thermal infrared observations to detect anomalous signals preceding large earthquakes. However, the lack of well-defined precursory characteristics and inherent complexity and stochasticity of the seismicity continue to impede robust earthquake forecasts. This study investigates the potential of pre-seismic thermal anomalies, derived from five satellite-based geophysical parameters, i.e., skin temperature, air temperature, total integrated column water vapor burden, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and clear-sky OLR, as valuable indicators for global earthquake forecasts. We employed a spatially self-adaptive multiparametric anomaly identification scheme to refine these anomalies, and then estimated the posterior probability of an earthquake occurrence given observed anomalies within a Bayesian framework. Our findings reveal a promising link between thermal signatures and global seismicity, with elevated forecast probabilities exceeding 0.1 and significant probability gains in some strong earthquake-prone regions. A time series analysis indicates probability stabilization after approximately six years. While no single parameter consistently dominates, each contributes precursory information, suggesting a promising avenue for a multi-parametric approach. Furthermore, novel anomaly indices incorporating probabilistic information significantly reduce false alarms and improve anomaly recognition. Despite remaining challenges in developing dynamic short-term probabilities, rigorously testing detection algorithms, and improving ensemble forecast strategies, this study provides compelling evidence for the potential of thermal anomalies to play a key role in global earthquake forecasts. The ability to reliably estimate earthquake forecast probabilities, given the ever-present threat of destructive earthquakes, holds considerable societal and ecological importance for mitigating earthquake risk and improving preparedness strategies.

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“…Inversions of geodetically ground displacements are exclusively capable of determining the most plausible fault geometry at depth (Bagnardi & Hooper, 2018; Wei, Chen, Lyu, et al, 2023; Wei, Chen, & Meng, 2023). In this study, the seismogenic fault geometry is estimated through a fully Bayesian inversion of the co‐seismic ground displacements, informed by the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) approach.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 2023 Mw 6.8 Morocco Earthquake: A Lower Crust Event Triggered by Mantle Upwelling?

Huang,

Wei,

Chen

et al. 2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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A M6.8 earthquake struck the High Atlas Mountains in Morocco on 8 September 2023, ending a 63‐year seismic silence. We herein attempt to clarify the seismogenic fault and explore the underlying mechanism for this seismic event based on multiple data sets. Utilizing probabilistic Bayesian inversion on interferometric radar data, we determine a seismogenic fault plane centered at a depth of 26 km, striking 251° and dipping 72°, closely aligned with the Tizi n’Test fault system. Given a hypocenter at the Moho depth, the joint inversion of radar and teleseismic data reveals that the rupture concentrates between depths of 12 and 36 km, offsetting the Mohorovičić discontinuity (Moho) at ∼32 km. Considering a strong link between magma activity and failure in lower crust, we propose that the triggering of the earthquake possibly was mantle upwelling that also supports the high topography.

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Bayesian Inversion of Finite‐Fault Earthquake Slip Model Using Geodetic Data, Solving for Non‐Planar Fault Geometry, Variable Slip, and Data Weighting

Cited by 7 publications

References 86 publications

Impact of Variable Fault Geometries and Slip Rates on Earthquake Catalogs From Physics‐Based Simulations of a Normal Fault

Impact of Variable Fault Geometries and Slip Rates on Earthquake Catalogs From Physics‐Based Simulations of a Normal Fault

A Bayesian Approach for Forecasting the Probability of Large Earthquakes Using Thermal Anomalies from Satellite Observations

The 2023 Mw 6.8 Morocco Earthquake: A Lower Crust Event Triggered by Mantle Upwelling?

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