Bayesian method for estimating initial crack size distribution for probabilistic risk analysis of repairable structural details

Abstract

A Bayesian method for estimating the initial crack length distribution is proposed for probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of repaired structural details. Noninformative prior is updated using a likelihood function, which is constructed using inspection capability, structural geometry, and material properties. The likelihood function based on the equivalent initial flaw size method was used for the left tail to avoid calculating the small-crack growth. The right tail was estimated based on the inspection capability and the maximum possible crack length. The proposed method alleviates the difficulties in selecting the initial crack-length distribution parameters. As an application, the KT-1 aircraft risk after the repair was analyzed. The PRA was conducted using the initial crack length distribution estimated via the proposed method. The result was compared with the conventional lognormal initial crack-length distribution.

An efficient discretization scheme for a dynamic Bayesian network in structural reliability analysis

“…11,12,16 Based on the initial crack length distribution and inspection reliability, a repair crack length distribution was estimated for node a r by using the Bayesian method proposed in the work of one of the present authors. 25 Figure 10 shows the repair crack length distribution applied.…”

Fatigue Crack and Residual Life Prediction Based on an Adaptive Dynamic Bayesian Network

“…Boris et al [22] introduced a framework utilizing a DBN with MCMC for predicting and updating crack length in fatigued structural components, including parameter probability density identification and updating. Lee et al [23] proposed a Bayesian method to estimate initial crack length distribution for PRA of repaired structures, improving parameter selection and analyzing KT-1 aircraft repair risk.…”