Bayesian inference modeling to rank response technologies in arctic marine oil spills

Das, Tanmoy; Goerlandt, Floris

doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.114203

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…As oil spills can have a profound impact on the reliability of operations, profitability of investments, and operating costs associated with various industries and sectors [69,70], it seems reasonable to devote significant attention and resources to prevent and effectively respond to oil discharges, ensuring the sustainability and resilience of these industries in the face of potential environmental risks. Moreover, the aviation industry, with its reliance on fuel and oil can have the potential impact on oil spills [71,72].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil Discharge Trajectory Simulation at Selected Baltic Sea Waterway under Variability of Hydro-Meteorological Conditions

Dąbrowska

2023

Water

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The paper deals with an important issue related to the identification, modelling, and prediction of environmental pollution in aquatic ecosystems of the Baltic Sea caused by anthropopressure. Water ecosystems are in danger nowadays because of the negative influence of chemical releases in seas, oceans, or inland waters. The crucial issue is to prevent the oil spills and mitigate their consequences. Thus, there is a need for methods capable of reducing the water pollution and enhancing the effectiveness of port and marine environment preservation. The challenge in implementing actions to remove and prevent horizontal oil discharge lies in accurately determining its shape and direction of oil spreading. The author employed a self-designed software utilizing modified and developed mathematical probabilistic models to forecast the movement and dispersion of an oil spill in diverse hydrological and meteorological conditions. This involved determining the trajectory and movement of a spill domain, which consists of elliptical sub-domains undergoing temporal changes. The research results obtained are the initial results in the oil spill simulation problem. This approach represents an expanded and innovative method for determining the spill domain and tracking its movement, applicable to oceans and seas worldwide. It expands upon the methodologies firstly discussed, thereby broadening the range of available techniques in this field. A simple model of an oil spill trajectory simulation and a surface oil slick as an ellipse is illustrated using a time-series of selected hydro-meteorological factors that change at random times. The author proposes a Monte Carlo simulation method to determine the extent of an oil spill in an aquatic ecosystem, taking into account the influence of varying hydro-meteorological conditions. A semi-Markov model is defined to capture the dynamics of these conditions within the spill area and develop an enhanced algorithm for predicting changes in the shape and movement of the spill domain under changing these conditions. By applying the algorithm, a simulation is conducted to provide short-term prediction of the oil discharge trajectory in a selected Baltic Sea waterway. To enhance the accuracy of predicting the process of changing conditions, uniformly tested joint datasets from the open sea water area were incorporated. Finally, the potential future prospects and directions for further research in this field are discussed.

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