Oil Discharge Trajectory Simulation at Selected Baltic Sea Waterway under Variability of Hydro-Meteorological Conditions

Abstract

The paper deals with an important issue related to the identification, modelling, and prediction of environmental pollution in aquatic ecosystems of the Baltic Sea caused by anthropopressure. Water ecosystems are in danger nowadays because of the negative influence of chemical releases in seas, oceans, or inland waters. The crucial issue is to prevent the oil spills and mitigate their consequences. Thus, there is a need for methods capable of reducing the water pollution and enhancing the effectiveness of port and marine environment preservation. The challenge in implementing actions to remove and prevent horizontal oil discharge lies in accurately determining its shape and direction of oil spreading. The author employed a self-designed software utilizing modified and developed mathematical probabilistic models to forecast the movement and dispersion of an oil spill in diverse hydrological and meteorological conditions. This involved determining the trajectory and movement of a spill domain, which consists of elliptical sub-domains undergoing temporal changes. The research results obtained are the initial results in the oil spill simulation problem. This approach represents an expanded and innovative method for determining the spill domain and tracking its movement, applicable to oceans and seas worldwide. It expands upon the methodologies firstly discussed, thereby broadening the range of available techniques in this field. A simple model of an oil spill trajectory simulation and a surface oil slick as an ellipse is illustrated using a time-series of selected hydro-meteorological factors that change at random times. The author proposes a Monte Carlo simulation method to determine the extent of an oil spill in an aquatic ecosystem, taking into account the influence of varying hydro-meteorological conditions. A semi-Markov model is defined to capture the dynamics of these conditions within the spill area and develop an enhanced algorithm for predicting changes in the shape and movement of the spill domain under changing these conditions. By applying the algorithm, a simulation is conducted to provide short-term prediction of the oil discharge trajectory in a selected Baltic Sea waterway. To enhance the accuracy of predicting the process of changing conditions, uniformly tested joint datasets from the open sea water area were incorporated. Finally, the potential future prospects and directions for further research in this field are discussed.

Collision and Contact – Analysis of Accidents at Sea

“…Accidents at sea can have serious consequences, including loss of life or serious injurie of crew members and passengers on board the vessels involved [40,55,56], property damage of ship as well as any cargo or other property on board and other infrastructure in the accident area [40,43,57]. Accidents can also result in spills of oil, hazardous materials, or other pollutants into the marine environment, which can have serious ecological and economic consequences [40,[58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65]. These spills can harm marine life, damage sensitive ecosystems, and disrupt local fisheries and tourism industries.…”

Numerical Modelling and Prediction of Oil Slick Dispersion and Horizontal Movement at Bornholm Basin in Baltic Sea

“…., m, i ̸ = j. Under these assumptions, the process A(t) of changing hydro-meteorological conditions may be defined by the following parameters [12,14]:…”

“…Assuming that the experiment takes place in the time interval 0,T, we are interested in finding the oil slick domain D k (t,τ k (t)), k ∈ {1, 2, …, m}, t ∈ 0,T, such that its central point is placed in it with a fixed probability p (Figure 5). From [12] and considering function (20), we have…”

“…., m}, t ∈ ⟨0,T⟩, such that its central point is placed in it with a fixed probability p (Figure 5). From [12] and considering function (20), we have…”

“…In this paper, a model of oil slick horizontal movement and dispersion in diverse hydrometeorological conditions is presented and self-written software is proposed, expanding my previous works [11][12][13] by considering variations in oil layer thickness over time. The primary focus of this study is to bridge a gap in our understanding by comprehensively exploring how changing environmental conditions and oil thickness interact to influence the movement and dispersion of oil slicks.…”