Bayesian Estimation of Age-Specific Mortality and Life Expectancy for Small Areas With Defective Vital Records

Schmertmann, Carl P.; Gonzaga, Marcos Roberto

doi:10.1007/s13524-018-0695-2

Cited by 57 publications

(80 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…On the other hand, analysis of the period 2001-2015 found an increase in the crude mortality rate from cardiovascular disease (CMRCVD). As these are less developed regions, the increase in CVD mortality rates might be related to the population's increased life expectancy and an increased prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors such as educational level, health conditions, institutional factors, the environment, and the socioeconomic situation to which the population is exposed Borges 2017;França et al 2017;Lotufo 2019), as well as improvements in death registration and vital statistics (Mathers et al 2005;França et al 2008;Luy 2010;Queiroz et al 2017;Schmertmann and Gonzaga 2018).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The relation between cardiovascular mortality and development: Study for small areas in Brazil, 2001–2015

Baptista¹,

Queiroz²

2019

DemRes

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BACKGROUND Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the most serious health issues and the leading cause of death in Brazil, accounting for 30% of all deaths. Previous research shows that CVD mortality rates are not uniformly distributed across Brazil and have been changing over time. There is also previous evidence from other countries that economic development and improvements in the educational level have important effects in reducing CVD mortality. OBJECTIVE The goal of this paper is to contribute to this discussion by investigating the relation between CVD mortality and economic development over time and space, measured by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, in Brazilian micro-regions from 2001 to 2015. METHODS We used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM-DATASUS) from 2001 to 2015. GDP data by micro-region were extracted from the Sistema IBGE de Recuperação Automática (SIDRA). Bivariate maps were used to establish the relationship between CVD mortality and GDP per capita. RESULTS The results show that GDP per capita increased in all micro-regions between 2001 and 2015. The results also suggest a rapid decline in CVD mortality in the South and Southeast micro-regions and a slower decline in the Central-West region. Meanwhile, the less developed North and Northeast regions showed an increase in CVD mortality over time. This spatial heterogeneity over the examined period appears to be associated with access to proper healthcare and strongly related to socioeconomic factors. In Baptista & Queiroz: The relation between cardiovascular mortality and development 1438 http://www.demographic-research.org addition, males have higher mortality rates than females in approximately 72% of micro-regions. CONTRIBUTION This study provides useful clues for policymakers establishing public health planning and effective measures for the prevention of deaths from cardiovascular disease. The reduction of CVD mortality can positively impact GDP growth because it can increase life expectancy and consequently enable people to contribute to the Brazilian economy for a longer time.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The relation between cardiovascular mortality and development: Study for small areas in Brazil, 2001–2015

Baptista¹,

Queiroz²

2019

DemRes

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“…We provide a descriptive and comparative analysis of different sources of estimates in Brazil at the subnational levels, at two different points in time. Our analysis focused on comparison of the estimated completeness of death registration produced by IBGE and IHME to those produced by IBGE and DDM-R [9] and, for 2010, to estimates from the Bayesian model [6].…”

Section: General Overview Of Data and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Schmertmann and Gonzaga [6] do not use directly DDM in their estimates. They combine a relational model for mortality schedules with probabilistic prior information on completeness of death registration obtained from several studies, and from field audits done by public health experts [26].…”

Section: Bayesian Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Strategies and methods used to estimate the completeness of deaths and mortality rates for younger and older ages impact the estimates of life expectancy at birth. Schmertmann and Gonzaga [6] combine a relational model for mortality schedules with probabilistic prior information on completeness of death registration obtained from several studies, and from field audits done by public health experts [26]. In general, IHME estimates are more conservative in all North and Northeast states and in some Southern and Southeast states and closer to Bayesian estimates then IBGE ones.…”

Section: Evaluating Differences In 2010mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this paper, we focus on comparing adult mortality estimates-45 q 15 , and life expectancy at birth in Brazil over 1980 and 2010-and estimates of completeness of death registration at subnational level. In order to compare these two main sources, we add to the analysis other mortality estimates from two independent studies: (1) Queiroz et al [9]-DDM-R-which provide estimates of completeness of death registration for two periods 1980/1991 and 2000/2010, which is fundamental in assessing the quality of data and for the correction of adult mortality at subnational level, and (2) Schmertmann and Gonzaga [6], based on Bayesian models, produced estimates of adult mortality, life expectancy at birth and probabilities of dying by single age at subnational level for 2010.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparative analysis of completeness of death registration, adult mortality and life expectancy at birth in Brazil at the subnational level

Queiroz

Gonzaga

Vasconcelos

et al. 2020

Popul Health Metrics

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Background Estimates of completeness of death registration are crucial to produce estimates of life tables and population projections and to estimate the burden of disease. They are an important step in assessing the quality of data. In the case of subnational data analysis in Brazil, it is important to consider spatial and temporal variation in the quality of mortality data. There are two main sources of data quality evaluation in Brazil, but there are few comparative studies and how they evolve over time. The aim of the paper is to compare and discuss alternative estimates of completeness of death registration, adult mortality (45q15) and life expectancy estimates produced by the National Statistics Office (IBGE), Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), and estimates presented in Queiroz et al. (2017) and Schmertmann and Gonzaga (2018), for 1980 and 2010. Methods We provide a descriptive and comparative analysis of aforementioned estimates from four (4) sources of estimates at subnational level (26 states and one Federal District) in Brazil from two different points in time. Results We found significant differences in estimates that affect both levels and trends of completeness of adult mortality in Brazil and states. IHME and Queiroz et al. (2017) estimates converge by 2010, but there are large differences when compared to estimates from the National Statistics Office (IBGE). Larger differences are observed for less developed states. We have showed that the quality of mortality data in Brazil has improved steadily overtime, but with large regional variations. However, we have observed that IBGE estimates show the lowest levels of completeness for the Northern of the country compared to other estimates. Choice of methods and approaches might lead to very unexpected results. Conclusion We produced a detailed comparative analysis of estimates of completeness of death registration from different sources and discuss the main results and possible explanations for these differences. We have also showed that new improved methods are still needed to study adult mortality in less developed countries and at a subnational level. More comparative studies are important in order to improve quality of estimates in Brazil.

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Patterns of Geographic Variation of Mortality by Causes of Death for Small Areas in Brazil, 2010

Queiroz

Freire

Lima

et al. 2020

Population Change and Public Policy

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Bayesian Estimation of Age-Specific Mortality and Life Expectancy for Small Areas With Defective Vital Records

Cited by 57 publications

References 44 publications

The relation between cardiovascular mortality and development: Study for small areas in Brazil, 2001–2015

The relation between cardiovascular mortality and development: Study for small areas in Brazil, 2001–2015

Comparative analysis of completeness of death registration, adult mortality and life expectancy at birth in Brazil at the subnational level

Patterns of Geographic Variation of Mortality by Causes of Death for Small Areas in Brazil, 2010

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