Bayesian Belief Network models as trade-off tools of ecosystem services in the Guayas River Basin in Ecuador

Forio, Marie Anne Eurie; Villa-Cox, Gonzalo; Echelpoel, Wout Van; Ryckebusch, Helena; Lock, Koen; Spanoghe, Pieter; Deknock, Arne; Troyer, Niels De; Nolivos-Alvarez, Indira; Domínguez-Granda, Luis; Speelman, Stijn; Goethals, Peter

doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101124

Cited by 38 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Climate change and policy implementation often lead to tradeoffs in ecosystem services, such as studies in Western North Carolina, Mediterranean forests and Guayas River Basin [79][80][81]. Coupled models of climate change, land use change, and ecosystem services can help to understand the impacts and trade-offs of climate change and policy.…”

Section: Spatial Relationship Among Ecosystem Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China

Wang

Qiao

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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Development of suitable ecological protection and restoration policies for sustainable management needs to assess the potential impacts of future land use and climate change on ecosystem services. The two ecological shelters and three belts (TSTB) are significant for improving ecosystem services and ensuring China’s and global ecological security. In this study, we simulated land use in 2050 and estimated the spatial distribution pattern of net primary productivity (NPP), water yield, and soil conservation from 2010 to 2050 under future climate change. The results showed that water yield, NPP, and soil conservation exhibited a spatial pattern of decreasing from southeast to northwest, while in terms of the temporal pattern, water yield and NPP increased, but soil conservation decreased. Water yield was mainly influenced by precipitation, NPP was affected by temperature and implementation of ecological restoration, and soil conservation was controlled by precipitation and slope. There was a strong spatial heterogeneity between trade-offs and synergies. In terms of the temporal, with the combination of climate change and ecological restoration, there was a synergistic relationship between water yield and NPP. However, the relationships between water yield and soil conservation, and between NPP and soil conservation were characterized by trade-offs. In the process of ecological construction, it is necessary to consider the differences between overall and local trade-offs and synergies, as well as formulate sustainable ecological management policies according to local conditions. Understanding the response of ecosystem services to future climate change and land use policies can help address the challenges posed by climate change and achieve sustainable management of natural resources.

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Section: Spatial Relationship Among Ecosystem Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China

Wang

Qiao

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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“…These pressures result from various human activities, such as modifications of river morphology [5][6][7] and hydrology [6,8,9], intensive agriculture [10][11][12][13][14], urbanization [13,15,16] and mining [17][18][19]. Together, these activities often lead to the degradation of stream ecosystems, reducing biodiversity, water security and ecosystem services [4,20]. Various measures are implemented to rehabilitate or restore degraded aquatic ecosystems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Small Patches of Riparian Woody Vegetation Enhance Biodiversity of Invertebrates

Forio

Troyer

Lock

et al. 2020

Water

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Patches of riparian woody vegetation potentially help mitigate environmental impacts of agriculture and safeguard biodiversity. We investigated the effects of riparian forest on invertebrate diversity in coupled stream-riparian networks using a case study in the Zwalm river basin (Flanders, Belgium). Agriculture is one of the main pressures in the basin and riparian forest is limited to a number of isolated patches. Our 32 study sites comprised nine unshaded “unbuffered” sites which were paired with nine shaded “buffered” sites on the same stream reach, along with five ‘least-disturbed’ sites and nine downstream sites. We sampled water chemistry, habitat characteristics and stream and riparian invertebrates (carabid beetles and spiders) at each site. Three methods were used to quantify riparian attributes at different spatial scales: a visually-assessed qualitative index, quantitative estimates of habitat categories in six rectangular plots (10 × 5 m) and geographic information system (GIS)-derived land cover data. We investigated relationships between invertebrates and riparian attributes at different scales with linear regression and redundancy analyses. Spiders and carabids were most associated with local riparian attributes. In contrast, aquatic macroinvertebrates were strongly influenced by the extent of riparian vegetation in a riparian band upstream (100–300 m). These findings demonstrate the value of quantifying GIS-based metrics of riparian cover over larger spatial scales into assessments of the efficacy of riparian management as a complement to more detailed local scale riparian assessments in situ. Our findings highlight the value of even small patches of riparian vegetation in an otherwise extensively disturbed landscape in supporting biodiversity of both terrestrial and freshwater invertebrates and emphasize the need to consider multiple spatial scales in riparian management strategies which aim to mitigate human impacts on biodiversity in stream-riparian networks.

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“…The factories and industries will, moreover, further develop and expand in the near future. The high concentration of toxic materials can threaten the ecological environment and the aquatic organisms of the Anzali wetland [31], causing retarded growth, behavioral and genetic changes, and a general decline in biodiversity and related ecosystem services [40,41]. Based on this, they will become the main sources of the toxic materials and heavy metals in the wetland.…”

Section: State Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence-Based Management of the Anzali Wetland System (Northern Iran) Based on Innovative Monitoring and Modeling Methods

Pasvisheh

Forio

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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As an “international aquatic ecosystem” in Northern Iran, the Anzali wetland is a nursery for fish and a breeding and wintering area for a wide variety of waterfowl. The wetland is threatened by human activities (deforestation, hunting, tourism, and urbanization), leading to habitat destruction, eutrophication, and sediment accumulation. To stop the degradation and to set up effective protection and restoration in line with the Sustainable Development Goals, scientific insights must be integrated into a practical framework for evidence-based support for policymakers and managers of the Anzali wetland. In this study, the Drivers–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR) framework is used as a suitable tool to link human pressures and state changes to derive an overview of the potential impacts. Population growth, intensive agriculture, increased urbanization, and industrialization are the major driving forces that have led to a complex cascade of state changes. For instance, during recent years, water quality deterioration, habitat degradation, and the overgrowth of invasive species in the Anzali wetland watershed have caused negative socio-economic and human health impacts. Integrated and innovative monitoring programs combined with socio-environmental modeling techniques are needed for a more evidence-based management approach as part of a multiresponse strategy for the sustainable development of the wetland system. In this respect, there is a critical gap in useful information concerning biological composition and innovative monitoring methods. Moreover, the relation of biota with human activity and environmental conditions needs to be better quantified. Therefore, ecological modeling techniques based on machine learning and statistics were reviewed for their advantages and disadvantages. The overview of approaches presented here can serve as the basis for scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers to develop and implement evidence-based management programs for the Anzali wetland.

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Bayesian Belief Network models as trade-off tools of ecosystem services in the Guayas River Basin in Ecuador

Cited by 38 publications

References 56 publications

Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China

Simulating the Impact of Future Climate Change and Ecological Restoration on Trade-Offs and Synergies of Ecosystem Services in Two Ecological Shelters and Three Belts in China

Small Patches of Riparian Woody Vegetation Enhance Biodiversity of Invertebrates

Evidence-Based Management of the Anzali Wetland System (Northern Iran) Based on Innovative Monitoring and Modeling Methods

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