Bat species vulnerability in Cerrado: integrating climatic suitability with sensitivity to land-use changes

Mendes, Poliana; Marco, Paulo De

doi:10.1017/s0376892917000194

Cited by 12 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…Values ≥ 0.5 indicate acceptable models in the field of ecology and for the purpose of protected-area design e.g. : 14 , 19 , 20 , 55 – 57 . To convert predicted species distributions into presence/absence maps, we used threshold values 58 , 59 that were derived from the ROC curve.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Protected areas are not effective for the conservation of freshwater insects in Brazil

Dias-Silva

Vieira

Moreira

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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Biodiversity conservation has faced many challenges, especially the conversion of natural areas that compete with use for agriculture, energy production and mineral extraction. This problem is further aggravated by lack of knowledge of the biodiversity that exists and the geographical distribution of different groups. The objectives of our study were to examine the distributional pattern of Gerromorpha diversity in Brazil, create a map of conservation priority areas, estimate the degree of protection that the current network of protected areas guarantees to this insect group, and identify the size thresholds in geographical distributions that would allow species to be protected. We used species occurrences from the Water Bugs Distributional Database, and we used 19 bioclimatic variables to build models of the potential distributions of species using the MaxEnt program. Using the potential model results, we calculated diversity metrics and overlapped them with the current state and federal “conservation units” (protected areas for biodiversity) in Brazil. Total beta diversity and turnover portions were separated into two faunistic groups, one in northern and the other in southern Brazil. The Amazon has higher beta diversity than what was predicted by the null models. We detected a positive relationship between species distribution area and occurrence in conservation units. Conservation units with less than 250 km2 do not protect Gerromorpha species. Our results reinforce the necessity of formulating new conservation strategies for this group, contemplating species with both restricted and ample distributions, because rare and specialist species are the most harmed by habitat reduction, given that they are more sensitive to environmental disturbance.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To convert predicted species distributions into presence/absence maps, we used threshold values 58 , 59 that were derived from the ROC curve. Use of the maximum threshold value (the Max TSS threshold) to maximize the specificity and sensitivity of models and tends to produce more-restricted distributions 19 , e.g. : 57 , 60 , 61 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Protected areas are not effective for the conservation of freshwater insects in Brazil

Dias-Silva

Vieira

Moreira

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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“…All crop categories were grouped under the category of croplands. Managed pastures and rangelands do not imply a total loss of natural cover but, given that they are anthropized, can harbour conditions that promote or demise the presence of a species, or even some species can adapt to the absence of natural habitat (Karp et al, ; Mendes & De Marco, ). Here, we considered that these land uses exert a negative impact on species in general.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A dark scenario for Cerrado plant species: Effects of future climate, land use and protected areas ineffectiveness

Velazco

Villalobos

Galvão

et al. 2019

Diversity and Distributions

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111

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Aim The anthropogenic climate change and land use change are considered two of the main factors that are altering biodiversity at the global scale. An evaluation that combined both factors can be relevant to detect which species could be the most vulnerable and reveal the regions of highest stability or susceptibility to biodiversity. We aimed to: (a) assess the effect of climate change and land use on the distribution of Cerrado plant species for different countries where they occur, (b) evaluate the effectiveness of the current network of protected areas (PAs) to safeguards species under different greenhouse–gas (GHG) emissions and land use scenarios, and (c) estimate the vulnerability of species based on protection effectiveness and habitat loss. Location Bolivia, Brazil and Paraguay. Methods We modelled the distribution of 1,553 plant species of Cerrado and evaluated species range loss caused by present and future land use and two GHG for 2050 and 2080. We assessed species vulnerability combining the representativeness of species within conservation units with the loss of species’ ranges outside PAs. Results We found that climate change and land use will cause great damage to Cerrado flora by 2050 and 2080, even under optimistic conditions. The greatest impacts of land use will occur in the regions where the greatest richness will be harboured. The conservation of the species will be seriously affected since the PA network is not as effective in safeguarding them under current or future conditions. Main conclusions The low level of protection together with the losses caused by the advance of agricultural lands will lead most species being highly vulnerable. Due to the distinct impacts of climate and land use over the three countries, conservation strategies should be implemented at transboundary and national levels.

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“…In these, the occurrence data were divided into different calibration and validation groups (70%-30% respectively) to each iteration [48]. The model that presented the best performance was selected for the projection of future climate change scenarios [35,48]. Partial ROCs were performed in R-Studio [33] with the help of the NicheToolBox library [49].…”

Section: Potential Distribution and Climatic Niche Breadthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential reduction of Hartweg´s Pine (Pinus hartwegii Lindl.) geographic distribution

et al. 2020

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Geographical distribution of forest species is closely regulated by environmental conditions, particularly temperature and precipitation. Climate change predicted by general circulation models is expected to modify the distribution of many species' distribution, especially those adapted to extreme environmental conditions, leading to large-scale migrations or local extinctions. The aim of this research was to determine the potential impact of climatic change on Pinus hartwegii geographic distribution and the niche breadth of its populations. Ecological niche models were used by generated with four different algorithms based on 19 bioclimatic variables in addition to altitude. Climatic niche breadth was delimited by the dispersion of species occurrence records within the intervals of the bioclimatic variables. We modelled future distribution based on three general circulation models, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES, using two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5, for two-time horizons 2050 and 2070. Niche breadth analysis showed narrow ranges of suitability, indicating a strong relationship between the presence of P. hartwegii with the temperature of the warmest quarter and precipitation of the coldest quarter. In addition, the suitability area of P. hartwegii is predicted to be reduced up to 70% by 2070; the populations of the extreme northern and southern latitudes will be reduced in greater proportion than those of central Mexico. This suggest that environmental suitability area of P. hartwegii are reduced by the effect of the increase in environmental temperature. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor extreme populations of this species in the long term in order to establish efficient conservation strategies and well adaptive management facing climate change.

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Bat species vulnerability in Cerrado: integrating climatic suitability with sensitivity to land-use changes

Cited by 12 publications

References 58 publications

Protected areas are not effective for the conservation of freshwater insects in Brazil

Protected areas are not effective for the conservation of freshwater insects in Brazil

A dark scenario for Cerrado plant species: Effects of future climate, land use and protected areas ineffectiveness

Potential reduction of Hartweg´s Pine (Pinus hartwegii Lindl.) geographic distribution

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