Base-rate respect: From ecological rationality to dual processes

Barbey, Aron K.; Sloman, Steven A.

doi:10.1017/s0140525x07001653

Cited by 337 publications

(334 citation statements)

References 69 publications

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“…Greater reflective dominance has been found as a result of not only acquired knowledge or expertise, as discussed previously, but also formal training (Agnoli 1991;Nisbett, Krantz, Jepson, and Kunda 1983), as well as dispositions like general intelligence (e.g. Barbey and Sloman 2007) and critical thinking ability (West, Toplak, and Stanovich 2008). Research specifically looking at anchoring and adjustment has found that anchoring cues were more influential on individuals high in openness-to-experience (McElroy and Dowd 2007).…”

Section: The Intuitive Vs Reflective Modelmentioning

confidence: 84%

Two minds, three ways: dual system and dual process models in consumer psychology

Samson

Voyer

2012

AMS Rev

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AMS Review, December 2012, Volume 2, pp 48-71. AbstractDual system and dual process views of the human mind have contrasted automatic, fast, and non-conscious with controlled, slow, and conscious thinking. This paper integrates duality models from the perspective of consumer psychology by identifying three relevant theoretical strands: Persuasion and attitude change (e.g. Elaboration Likelihood Model), judgment and decision making (e.g. Intuitive vs. Reflective Model), as well as buying and consumption behavior (e.g. Reflective-Impulsive Model). Covering different aspects of the consumer decision making process, we discuss the conditions under which different types of processes are evoked, how they interact and how they apply to consumers' processing of marketing messages, the evaluation of productrelated information, and purchasing behavior. We further compare and contrast theoretical strands and incorporate them with the literature on attitudes, showing how duality models can help us understand implicit and explicit attitude formation in consumer psychology. Finally, we offer future research implications for scholars in consumer psychology and marketing.

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Section: The Intuitive Vs Reflective Modelmentioning

confidence: 84%

Two minds, three ways: dual system and dual process models in consumer psychology

Samson

Voyer

2012

AMS Rev

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“…As a test of the natural frequency hypothesis, several researchers presented classic problems in frequency rather than probability format (e.g., how many out of 200 women are bank tellers and how many out of 200 are bank tellers and feminists), and found that frequencies dramatically improved performance (Cosmides & Tooby, 1996;Fiedler, 1988;Hertwig & Gigerenzer, 1999;Tversky & Kahneman, 1983; but see Barbey & Sloman, 2007;Gaissmaier, Straubinger, & Funder, 2007;and Gigerenzer & Hoffrage, 2007, for a recent round of debate surrounding these studies). Improving performance by providing natural frequencies as input has implications that go beyond our general point about evolutionarily valid problem formats.…”

Section: Evolutionarily-invalid Problem Formats and Contentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptive Rationality: An Evolutionary Perspective on Cognitive Bias

et al. 2009

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A casual look at the literature in social cognition reveals a vast collection of biases, errors, violations of rational choice, and failures to maximize utility. One is tempted to draw the conclusion that the human mind is woefully muddled. We present a three-category evolutionary taxonomy of evidence of biases: biases are (a) heuristics, (b) error management effects, or (c) experimental artifacts. We conclude that much of the research on cognitive biases can be profitably reframed and understood in evolutionary terms. An adaptationist perspective suggests that the mind is remarkably well designed for important problems of survival and reproduction, and not fundamentally irrational. Our analysis is not an apologia intended to place the rational mind on a pedestal for admiration. rather, it promises practical outcomes including a clearer view of the architecture of systems for judgment and decision making, and exposure of clashes between adaptations designed for the ancestral past and the demands of the present.

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“…However, most people consider only the latter and give the answer that signals neglect of the base rate, namely 80%. There have been several attempts to explain base-rate neglect and to provide solutions to solve the problem (for an overview see Barbey & Sloman, 2007). In line with earlier approaches (e.g., Tversky & Kahneman, 1983), Barbey and Sloman proposed that base-rate neglect is due to associative / intuitive (i.e., system 1) judgment strategies that fail to adequately represent the structure of the problem.…”

Section: Base-rate Neglect and Intuitionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Base-rate respect by intuition: Approximating rational choices in base-rate tasks with multiple cues

Glöckner¹,

Dickert²

2008

PsycEXTRA Dataset

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Although intuitive-automatic processes sometimes lead to systematic biases in judgment and choice, in many situations especially this kind of processes enables people to approximate rational choices. In complex base-rate tasks with repeated outcome feedback we observed choices which were in line with the Bayes' solution in 86% of the cases and which were made within a relatively short time (i.e., 2.2 seconds). The results indicate reliance on extremely wellcalibrated intuition. This view is supported by the findings that choice proportions are almost perfectly predicted by posterior probabilities (r = .93), and that error rates, response times and confidence ratings are highly correlated with inconsistency in the provided information. Our results support the hypothesis that parallel constraint satisfaction models may account for the processes underlying intuition and make the application of simple heuristics and deliberate strategies very unlikely. Taking an interdisciplinary perspective, implications for economic and psychological modeling are outlined. Base-rate Neglect and IntuitionTo be successful in a fundamentally uncertain world, individuals have to make a multitude of judgments and decisions based on probabilistic information. Research on judgment and decision making has repeatedly shown systematic biases in probability assessment and in applying the rules of probability (Gilovich, Griffin, & Kahneman, 2002;Kahneman, Slovic, & Tversky, 1982;Reyna, 2004;Slovic, 1987). One of the most prominent and well established findings is individuals' neglect of base-rate probabilities. 1 This has been, for instance, demonstrated in the following task (e.g., Bar-Hillel, 1980): Two cab companies, Blue and Green, operate in a given city. Eighty-five percent of the cabs in the city are Blue, and the remaining 15% are Green. A cab was involved in a hit-and-run accident at night. A witness later identified the cab as a Green cab. The court tested the witness' ability to distinguish between Blue and Green cabs under nighttime visibility conditions. The witness was able to identify each color correctly about 80% of the time, but confused it with the other color about 20% of the time. What is the probability that the accident was caused by the Green company?To answer this question, both the base rate of green cabs (15%) and the validity of the eyewitness (80%) have to be taken into account. However, most people consider only the latter and give the answer that signals neglect of the base rate, namely 80%. There have been several attempts to explain base-rate neglect and to provide solutions to solve the problem (for an overview see Barbey & Sloman, 2007). In line with earlier approaches (e.g., Tversky & Kahneman, 1983), Barbey and Sloman proposed that base-rate neglect is due to associative / intuitive (i.e., system 1) judgment strategies that fail to adequately represent the structure of the problem. Our research empirically tests and expands this intriguing theory. In line with Hammond, Hamm, Grassia, and Pearson (...

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Base-rate respect: From ecological rationality to dual processes

Cited by 337 publications

References 69 publications

Two minds, three ways: dual system and dual process models in consumer psychology

Two minds, three ways: dual system and dual process models in consumer psychology

Adaptive Rationality: An Evolutionary Perspective on Cognitive Bias

Base-rate respect by intuition: Approximating rational choices in base-rate tasks with multiple cues

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