Barren lives: drought shocks and agricultural vulnerability in the Brazilian Semi-Arid

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of drought shocks in a vulnerable environment – the Brazilian Semi-Arid. We analyze the impact of drought shocks, measured as deviations from long-run historical averages, on agricultural outcomes in a region that suffers recurrently from drought. After controlling for municipality and year fixed effects, we use weather shocks to exactly identify outcomes. Our benchmark results show substantial effects on the loss of crop area and on the value of agricultural output, as well as on crop yields. As we investigate distributional effects, our results show that crops related to familiar agriculture suffer more from drought shocks. We follow our investigation by testing heterogeneity effects and show that adequate water provision and maintenance of forest cover help in reducing the impact of drought shocks.

How climate change is impacting the Brazilian agricultural sector: evidence from a systematic literature review

“…Conversely, on average, four other crops gain productivity in response to climate change: Brazilian Nuts (15%), coffee (3%), soybean (1%), sugarcane (3%). In examining the ramifications of droughts on agricultural productivity, our SLR found three studies with comparable baselines (Rossato et al 2017, Pereira et al 2018, Costa et al 2023. As depicted in figure 7, the outcomes underscore a consistent trend whereby drought and extreme drought conditions have negative effects on the average productivity of most crops investigated, including bean, coffee, cocoa and corn.…”

“…Negative effects are reported in 42 studies within our review (table SM 3 extreme drought events were associated with impacts on crop area, crop losses and decreased productivity (Carvalho et al 2020, Costa et al 2023.…”

“…= 0.1). Costa et al (2023) investigated the effects of drought shocks on agricultural outcomes. In their study, the authors used longitudinal data from 2006 to 2017, in municipalities of the Northeast region.…”

“…Furthermore, negative impacts on price and profitability of cattle production in Rio Grande do Sul were identified in relation to El Niño and La Niña(Pereira et al 2018). Additionally, reductions in precipitation correlated to agroclimatic risks(Torres et al 2022), reductions in crop area(Costa et al 2023), production(Ferreira et al 2019a), productivity(Moura 1998, Burney et al 2014, dos Reis et al 2020, Koh et al 2020, Souza et al 2021), and shifts to less intensive agriculture (Rattis et al 2021), while…”

Increasing Sugarcane Production Eco-Efficiency: A DEA Analysis with Different Sugarcane Varieties

“…Costa, Sant'Anna, and Young [38] argue that drought shocks caused by climate change will lead to loss of crop area and value of agricultural output in the semi-arid Brazilian region.…”