Balancing with Jokowi’s Characteristics: A Neoclassical Realism Approach to Indonesia’s Foreign and Security Policies in the South China Sea

Abstract

The objectives of this article are twofold. First, it seeks to posit Jokowi’s foreign and security policies in the broader historical context of Indonesian foreign and security policymaking. Throughout history, Indonesia’s responses to its external environment, as manifested in its foreign and security policies, have been significantly influenced by a range of domestic factors including leaders’ personality and his/her attitude to international politics. Building upon the historical observation, this article seeks to understand Jokowi’s foreign and security policies in the South China Sea using a neoclassical realism framework. It argues that there has been a shift in Indonesia’s approach to the South China Sea problem, characterised by a more active and pragmatic diplomacy and a more assertive approach to territorial integrity. Both components, however, are not deterministic products of external threats as predicted by neorealist theories. Instead, they are influenced by Jokowi’s personality, attitude towards foreign and security policy and preoccupation of his administration with the domestic agenda.

Indonesia’s South China Sea Policy under Joko Widodo: Building Credibility in Indo-Pacific Geostrategic Circuit

“…As Wicaksana (2019), Anton, Agus, and Achluddin (2021) asserted, Indonesia plays a mediating role and aims for a rule-building contribution in the South China Sea. At the domestic level, Arif (2021) mentioned that Indonesia's South China Sea policy is influenced by Joko Widodo's personality and his administration's domestic agendas. These researches comprehensively depict Indonesia's South China Sea attitude from regional and domestic perspectives.…”

“…Under Yudhoyono's reign from 2004 to 2014, Indonesia developed an accommodative approach to avoid conflict at all costs (Fitriani, 2015). Indonesia's foreign policy foundation of norm-setting and regional leadership built under Yudhoyono has been continued and inherited by the Joko Widodo administration as well (Arif, 2021). Indonesia also keeps itself to be non-claimant.…”

“…Laksmana (2018) further stated that these maneuvers by Yudhoyono were relatively not-new compared to his predecessors since no developed strategic dynamics forced Indonesia to reformulate its stance. Under the Joko Widodo administration, Indonesia's South China Policy has become more assertive by protecting its territorial sovereignty while at the same time not antagonizing China (Connelly A. L., 2016;Arif, 2021). Indonesia's bolder usage of military instruments and presence in the North Natuna Islands are also caused by new strategic dynamics where China's fishing vessels, accompanied by Chinese Coast Guard vessels, are seen to intercept Indonesia's waters.…”