Balancing trade-offs between ecosystem services in Germany’s forests under climate change

Gutsch, Martin; Lasch-Born, Petra; Kollas, Chris; Suckow, Felicitas; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab4e5

Cited by 73 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…full calipering of a handful of representative stands). However, DVMs can provide a wealth of further decision support under changing environmental conditions (see also review by Fontes et al 2010) from lowland to mountain forests (e.g., Irauschek et al 2017a, Gutsch et al 2018.…”

Section: Using Dvms As Decision Support Tools For Mountain Forest Manmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts across a large forest enterprise in the Northern Pre-Alps: dynamic forest modelling as a tool for decision support

Thrippleton

Lüscher²,

Bugmann

2020

Eur J Forest Res

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We thank Dominic Michel for support in all IT-related questions and the employees of the OAK Schwyz for conducting the measurements of forest structure in the field. David I. Forrester and the Experimental Forest Management (EFM) Project of the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL are gratefully acknowledged for providing data on the current stand structure of the site FW (Riemenstalden). Two anonymous reviewers are gratefully acknowledged for their thoughtful comments and helpful suggestions.

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Section: Using Dvms As Decision Support Tools For Mountain Forest Manmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts across a large forest enterprise in the Northern Pre-Alps: dynamic forest modelling as a tool for decision support

Thrippleton

Lüscher²,

Bugmann

2020

Eur J Forest Res

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“…By initializing model projections with single-tree data from the Swiss NFI we fully represented the range of forest compositional and stand structural types in Switzerland. A similar framework to reveal trade-offs between forest ecosystem services was presented by Gutsch et al (2018) and involved a process-based forest development model that was initialized with aggregated German NFI data. Regional or even continental studies are often forced to a rather coarse representation of forest management and ecosystem service provision.…”

Section: Analysis Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous assessments of management effects on ESB provision that were based on forest development models have accounted for disturbances such as windthrow and bark beetles at the level of stands and management units (Temperli et al 2012;Maroschek et al 2014;Thom and Seidl 2016;Cantarello et al 2017;Irauschek et al 2017). However, inventory-based assessments representative for a whole region or country have rarely evaluated forest management scenarios with respect to both ESB provision and disturbance risks (Gutsch et al 2018;Huang et al 2018;Jandl et al 2018). In particular, potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance risks under national forest management policies have so far not been investigated at the national scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances: a NFI-based scenario analysis

et al. 2020

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Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity (ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country. Methods: The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI). We included a businessas-usual (BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition. Results: The predisposition indicators corresponded well (AUC: 0.71-0.86) to storm and insect (mostly bark beetle) damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition (storm: >−11%, beetle: >−37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased (e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value. Conclusions: By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.

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“…Future climate data of global climate models (GCMs) have been widely used to underpin investigations of the potential impact of climate change on surface processes and effective adaptation responses [22,53]. In this research, we used the statistical downscaling model, NWAI-WG (weather generator developed at New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute), developed by Liu and Zuo [54] based on the improved stochastic weather generator (WGEN) [55], to generate daily and specific site data.…”

Section: Future Climate Change Scenarios Generationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecosystem Services under Climate Change Impact Water Infrastructure in a Highly Forested Basin

Zhang

O’Connor

et al. 2020

Water

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Climate change can have critical impacts on ecosystem services (ESs) and their inter-relationships, especially for water-related services. However, there has been little work done on characterizing the current and future changes in these services and their inter-relationships under a changing climate. Based on the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE), the soil conservation service curve number model (SCS-CN), and the improved stochastic weather-generator-based statistical downscaled global climate models (GCMs), we examined two important water-related services, namely, the soil conservation (SC) service and the flood mitigation (FM) service, and their inter-relationship under baseline and future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5). We took the Upper Hanjiang River Basin (UHRB), which is the core water source area of the China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project (S–NWDP), as an illustration. The findings revealed that (1) the SC and FM services will both decrease under the two climate scenarios examined; (2) the SC and FM services showed a significant synergistic inter-relationship and the synergy will be improved by 16.48% and 2.95% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, which provides an opportunity for management optimization; (3) the ecological degradation in the UHRB will likely have serious consequences for the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang river basin, and therefore impact the actual economic benefits of the S–NWDP. This study points to the necessity for understanding the dynamic changes and inter-relationships of ecosystem services under future climate change and provides information regarding the consequences of climate change, which is useful for policy and infrastructure investment.

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Balancing trade-offs between ecosystem services in Germany’s forests under climate change

Cited by 73 publications

References 63 publications

Climate change impacts across a large forest enterprise in the Northern Pre-Alps: dynamic forest modelling as a tool for decision support

Climate change impacts across a large forest enterprise in the Northern Pre-Alps: dynamic forest modelling as a tool for decision support

Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances: a NFI-based scenario analysis

Ecosystem Services under Climate Change Impact Water Infrastructure in a Highly Forested Basin

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