Balancing Individual and Communal Needs: Plague and Public Health in Early Modern Seville

Journal of Travel Medicine

Kocbach

et al. 2020

1,123

946

Background With its epicenter in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization (WHO). Consequently, many countries have implemented flight restrictions to China. China itself has imposed a lockdown of the population of Wuhan as well as the entire Hubei province. However, whether these two enormous measures have led to significant changes in the spread of COVID-19 cases remains unclear. Methods We analyzed the available data on the development of confirmed domestic and international COVID-19 cases before and after lockdown measures. We evaluated the correlation of domestic air traffic to the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and determined the growth curves of COVID-19 cases within China before and after lockdown as well as after changes in COVID-19 diagnostic criteria. Results Our findings indicate a significant increase in doubling time from 2 days (95% CI: 1.9–2.6) to 4 days (95% CI: 3.5–4.3), after imposing lockdown. A further increase is detected after changing diagnostic and testing methodology to 19.3 (95% CI: 15.1–26.3), respectively. Moreover, the correlation between domestic air traffic and COVID-19 spread became weaker following lockdown (before lockdown: r = 0.98, P < 0.05 vs after lockdown: r = 0.91, P = NS). Conclusions A significantly decreased growth rate and increased doubling time of cases was observed, which is most likely due to Chinese lockdown measures. A more stringent confinement of people in high risk areas seems to have a potential to slow down the spread of COVID-19.

Section: Outcome Measures and Statistical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China

Lau

Journal of Travel Medicine

Kocbach

et al. 2020

1,123

946

“…In a recent study, Wilder‐Smith et al 4 describe these different concepts in detail, ranging from the quarantine of confirmed and possibly infected individuals as implemented in Germany to the declaration of lockdown in Italy, France, and Spain with individual variations. We know from retrospective analysis that travel restrictions can positively impact case development, as observed in past SARS or Ebola outbreaks 5‐7 . China's approach in the COVID‐19 outbreak exceeds the classic definition of local confinement, lockdown, and isolation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Failure in initial stage containment of global COVID‐19 epicenters

Lau

Journal of Medical Virology

et al. 2020

With multiple virus epicenters, COVID-19 has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Consequently, many countries have implemented different policies to manage this crisis including curfew and lockdown. However, the efficacy of individual policies remains unclear with respect to COVID-19 case development. We analyzed available data on COVID-19 cases of eight majorly affected countries, Japan. Growth rates and doubling time of cases were calculated for the first 6 weeks after the initial cases were declared for each respective country and put into context with implemented policies. Although the growth rate of total confirmed COVID-19 cases in China has decreased, those for Japan have remained constant. For European countries, the growth rate of COVID-19 cases considerably increased during the second time interval.Interestingly, the rates for Germany, Spain, and France are the highest measured in the second interval and even surpass the numbers in Italy. Although the initial data in Asian countries are encouraging with respect to case development at the initial stage, the opposite is true for European countries. Based on our data, disease management in the 2 weeks following the first reported cases is of utmost importance. K E Y

Disaster med. public health prep.

“…On January 31, 2020, the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, with its epicenter in Wuhan, was declared a public health emergency of international concern by the WHO 2 . Considering that the disease is highly contagious and in order to prevent the further spread of COVID-19 from its source, all transport to and from Wuhan city was prohibited from 10:00h on 23 January 2020, followed by the entire Hubei Province a day later, which has been proved to be effective and was estimated to have stopped at least 700,000 cases of COVID-19 3 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in Anxiety, Depression, and Stress in 1 Week and 1 Month Later After the Wuhan Shutdown Against the COVID-19 Epidemic

Chen

Zhang

et al. 2021

Objective: To investigate the changes in Chinese residents’ psychological state and its influencing factors after the Wuhan shutdown on 23 Jan. Methods: Two surveys were conducted on Feb 1-5 and Feb 20-24, separately, using an online self-administrated questionnaire among 3145 and 3814 participants, respectively. Subjective indicators of daily-life changes include level of attention, risk of infection, impact of daily life, self-perceived health status, and mental health help-seeking. And individual scores on changes in anxiety, depression, and stress were generated by 6-item, 4-item, and 3-item questions. A multivariate regression model was fitted in each survey, separately and combined. Results: A total of 6959 residents participated in the study, with 32.78% male and 67.22% female, people living in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei Province accounted for 25.22% and 18.85%, respectively. One week after the Wuhan shutdown, their anxiety, depression, and stress had all increased. Compared to the 1st survey, the changes in the scores of anxiety, depression, and stress in the 2nd survey were decreased (β=-1.220, -0.798, and -0.623, all p<0.001). The level of attention, risk of infection, and self-perceived health status tended to be positively associated with the changes in the scores of anxiety, depression, and stress. Conclusions: The study showed that the lives and psychological conditions of residents had undergone negative changes after the Wuhan shutdown, but the measures taken during this period were effective. These results may provide guidance for public health policies in other countries and regions.