Failure in initial stage containment of global COVID‐19 epicenters

Khosrawipour, Veria; Lau, Hien; Khosrawipour, Tanja; Kocbach, Piotr; Ichii, Hirohito; Bania, Jacek; Mikołajczyk, Agata

doi:10.1002/jmv.25883

Cited by 70 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…On the other hand South Korea and Taiwan, despite having initial cases have been reported too early, show a slower spread of infection and less mortality rate. Medical infrastructure and correct timing of restrictions on public gatherings and movement can be listed as factors which has led to such differences in the menace created by this virus [1].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative analyses revealed reduced spread of COVID-19 in malaria endemic countries

Muneer

Kumari

Tripathi

et al. 2020

Preprint

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In late 2019, SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) infection started in Hubei province of China and now it has spread like a wildfire in almost all parts of the world except some. WHO named the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 as COVID-19 (CoronaVirus Disease-2019). It is very intriguing to see a mild trend of infection in some countries which could be attributed to mitigation efforts, lockdown strategies, health infrastructure, demographics and cultural habits. However, the lower rate of infection and death rates in mostly developing countries, which are not placed at higher levels in terms of healthcare facilities, is a very surprising observation. To address this issue, we hypothesize that this lower rate of infection is majorly been observed in countries which have a higher transmission/prevalence of protozoan parasite borne disease, malaria. We compared the COVID-19 spread and malaria endemicity of 108 countries which have shown at least 200 cases of COVID-19 till 18 th April 2020. We found that the number of COVID-19 cases per million population correlates negatively with the malaria endemicity of respective countries.The malaria free countries not only have higher density of COVID-19 infections but also the higher case fatality rates as compared to highly malaria endemic countries. We also postulate that this phenomenon is due to natural immune response against malaria infection, which is providing a heterologous protection against the virus. Unfortunately, there is no licensed vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 yet, but this information will be helpful in design of future strategies against fast spreading COVID-19 disease.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative analyses revealed reduced spread of COVID-19 in malaria endemic countries

Muneer

Kumari

Tripathi

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…2,3 The virus's particularly high rate of transmission prompted implementation of various widespread restrictions, including bans on international travel and government-mandated lockdowns, in an attempt to contain its spread. 4 Nonetheless, by March 2020, well over 50,000 people in 25 countries had confirmed cases of COVID-19, and patients with severe respiratory symptoms were associated with a higher rate of fatality. 5 As health care systems grapple with increasing numbers of patients, attempts to protect patients and providers, in addition to preserving personal protective equipment, have elicited a necessary triaging of care.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Outpatient Otolaryngology in the Era of COVID‐19: A Data‐Driven Analysis of Practice Patterns

Kasle

Torabi

Savoca

et al. 2020

Otolaryngol.--head neck surg.

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Introduction Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has induced a prioritization of acute care and telehealth, affecting the quantity of patients seen and the modality of their care. Study Design Retrospective review. Setting Single-institution study conducted within the Division of Otolaryngology at the Yale School of Medicine. Subjects and Methods Data on all outpatient appointments within the Division of Otolaryngology were obtained from administrative records of billing and scheduling from March 16 to April 10, 2020. For comparison, a corresponding period from 2019 was also utilized. Results Of 5913 scheduled visits, 3665 (62.0%) were seen between March 18 and April 12, 2019, in comparison with 649 of 5044 (12.9%) during the corresponding COVID-19–affected period. The majority of completed visits performed in weeks 1 and 2 were in person, while the majority in weeks 3 and 4 were via telehealth. Among subspecialties, a larger proportion of completed visits in 2020 were performed by pediatric and head and neck oncology otolaryngologists as compared with general/specialty otolaryngologists ( P < .001). Older adults (≥65 years) were less likely to have telehealth visits than younger adults (18-64 years; 45.6% vs 59.6%, P = .003). Conclusions A major decrease in the completion rates of scheduled visits was seen in the COVID-19–affected period, though this was not proportional among subspecialties. An associated increase in telehealth visits was observed. After COVID-19–related hospital policy changes, approximately 2 weeks passed before telehealth visits surpassed in-person visits, though this was not true among older adults.

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“…These countries clearly have a drastic reduction in COVID-19 cases in the last days studied. However, they did not invested in the strategy of mass testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing in the early stage of SARS-CoV-2 spread which led them to failures in inicial stage containment of COVID-19 pandemic 34,35 But, we believe that public health policies implemented together with some factors such as population adherence to social isolation measure, genetic and age composition 36 and high human development index (HDI) may have helped in decreasing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 in these countries.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Insights into the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 pandemicvia Shannon-Fisher causality plane

Fernandes

Araujo

Silva

2020

Preprint

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This paper performs a systematic investigation into the temporal evolution of severe acute respiratory disease coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic considering 15 diverse countries. Based on the foundations of Information Theory, we apply the Shannon-Fisher causality plane (SFCP), to map the dynamics behavior inherent to SARS-CoV-2 and their respective locations along the (SFCP). Our results show that this dynamics varies widely along the SFCP from the lower-right region, characterized by high entropy and low degree of reliability in relation to the information extracted from the analyzed data set to the top-right region, characterized by the less entropic and high degree of reliability in relation to the information extracted from the analyzed data set. It reveals that we have three different groups of countries in controlling the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. A country that was proactive in implementing measures such as social distancing, quarantine, orders to stay at home, testing symptomatic and asymptomatic loads and hygienic measures to limit the impacts of SARS-Cov-2 (China) and that today is clearly in the decay phase with the number of cases tending to zero and is no longer in a pandemic situation (efficient). Moderately proactive countries, ie, implemented measures only when the spread of SARS-Cov-2 was already reaching the country (France, Germany, United Kingdom, Spain, Sweden, Italy, Ireland, USA, Austria, and Canada) (moderately efficient) and the reactive countries, which took a long time to implement the measures and/or the infection came later and as a result are not managing to reduce the number of daily cases of SARS-CoV-2 (Russia, Iran, Brazil, and India) (inefficient) and are the new epicenters of the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. Besides, we applied the Bandt Pompe permutation entropy (H) and the Fisher Information (F) to obtain the rank of the most efficient countries to the fight against the SARS-CoV-2. To the best of our knowledge, no researches have been ranking the most proactive countries in the fight against the SARS-CoV-2 dissemination. We truly believe that the empirical results showed in this research draws new perspectives that can collaborate in the formulation of more efficient healthy public policies to combat SARS-CoV-2 spread.

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Failure in initial stage containment of global COVID‐19 epicenters

Cited by 70 publications

References 18 publications

Comparative analyses revealed reduced spread of COVID-19 in malaria endemic countries

Comparative analyses revealed reduced spread of COVID-19 in malaria endemic countries

Outpatient Otolaryngology in the Era of COVID‐19: A Data‐Driven Analysis of Practice Patterns

Insights into the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 pandemicvia Shannon-Fisher causality plane

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