Back to replacement migration: A new European perspective applying the prospective-age concept

Craveiro, Daniela; Oliveira, Isabel Tiago de; Gomes, Maria Cristina Sousa; Malheiros, Jorge; Moreira, Maria João Guardado; Peixoto, João

doi:10.4054/demres.2019.40.45

Cited by 14 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 23 publications

(26 reference statements)

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“…(4) An egalitarian shift in family support policies or increasing immigration levels are not effective remedies for population aging in the EU. In accordance with other recent studies (Craveiro et al 2019;Lutz et al 2019) and contrary to many political discussions, encouraging more immigration from external countries into the EU or increasing fertility rates by means of successful government initiatives will not signifi cantly slow population aging in the EU. Even increasing net migration levels 4 times would do little in the long-term to reduce the dependency ratio or the proportion of the population 65 years or older (see Table 8).…”

Section: Millionssupporting

confidence: 87%

Policy-based Population Projections for the European Union: A Complementary Approach

Cafaro

Dérer

2019

CPoS

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We present new population projections out to 2100 for the countries of the European Union and for the EU as a whole under a wide range of fertility and migration scenarios. As policy-based projections rather than forecasts, they aspire not to maximize predictive success regarding future demographic developments, but to accurately show the impact of different migration and socio-economic policy choices on population numbers. Our chief aim is to clarify those policy choices for European citizens and policymakers. We show that demographic policies have the potential to markedly increase or decrease future populations across the EU. Migration policy offers greater scope for influencing future population numbers than policies aimed at influencing national fertility rates. In countries with particularly low fertility rates or high emigration levels, egalitarian economic and family support policies have the potential to limit future population decreases to a significant extent, especially in combination. In most cases, EU nations are well placed to stabilize or slowly reduce their populations by continuing status quo policies or with moderate changes. Thus they are well placed to achieve one of the necessary conditions for creating ecologically sustainable societies.

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Section: Millionssupporting

confidence: 87%

Policy-based Population Projections for the European Union: A Complementary Approach

Cafaro

Dérer

2019

CPoS

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“…More recently, Craveiro et al (2019) revisited the report in the European context and reiterates the conclusions of the original UN publication that replacement migration plays a positive role in mitigating the consequences of demographic ageing, moderating total population and working‐age population declines. As such, it is possible that replacement migration has the potential to positively impact on social, economic and demographic decline in the periphery.…”

Section: Replacement Migration Human Capital and Economic Developmentmentioning

confidence: 87%

Replacement migration on the edge of the European Union: Wasting human capital?

Janicki

Ledwith

2021

International Migration

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A significant part of the economic theory of migration assumes that migration is a process compensating for regional differences in the level of development, thus acting as a regulator of labour supply and demand (Fei & Ranis, 1961;Janicki, 2007;Todaro, 1976). Although migration does not reduce disparities in the level of regional development in absolute terms, it may to some extent mitigate the consequences of uneven development.Particularly beneficial in relation to economic development is return migration and the associated social, human and/or economic capital acquired abroad. However, large-scale migrant return is rare. An alternative may be to

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“…It is the first to apply this method to an extensive range of populations. It should be noted this paper's method is quite different from the methods used in other studies that have adopted the term 'replacement migration', including those of the UNDP (2000), Billari and Dalla-Zuanna (2011), Bijak et al (2013), Wilson et al, 2013 andCraveiro et al (2019). The following section describes the method of calculation.…”

Section: Review Of the Literature On Replacement Migrationmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…The UNDP (2000) 'replacement migration' is not a synthetic measure, because its value is influenced by the 'momentum' inherent in the initial age structure of the projected population. Moreover, the UNDP's (2000) estimates of the 'replacement migration' levels for the UK, Germany, France and Italy were exceeded by the subsequent average net migration levels in these countries over the 1995-2015 period (Craveiro et al, 2019).…”

Section: Review Of the Literature On Replacement Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Their results reflect the heterogeneity of the population prospects of the countries considered, showing that large volumes of 'replacement migration' will be needed to prevent population decreases in eastern and southern European countries (e.g., Romania and Bulgaria) with low fertility and negative momentum, whilst the populations of 10 mostly northern and western European countries are projected to grow throughout the period considered, even with zero migration. Craveiro et al (2019) estimated the annual net migration needed to maintain a constant (2015) population size in Germany, the UK, France, Italy and Spain over the 2015-60 period, assuming fertility and mortality rates change in line with the Eurostat (2014) projections. For all five countries, the 'replacement' level for net migration is initially negative and generally increases over the projection period.…”

Section: Review Of the Literature On Replacement Migrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Immigration and the prospects for long-run population decreases in European countries

Parr¹

2022

Populationyearbook

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Between 2009 and 2018, the total fertility rate fell in most European countries. In 2018, fertility was below the replacement level throughout Europe. Net migration was positive for two-thirds of European countries. This paper illustrates the implications for long-run population growth of observed net migration-fertilitymortality combinations in 20 European countries over the 2009–18 period by comparing the observed net migration to a zero population growth-related ‘replacement level’ for net migration. The results show that in several northern and north-western European countries, the net migration level has been consistently above this replacement level: if the net migration level and fertility and mortality rates remain constant, the population would increase. However, the findings also indicate that in all of the eastern European countries covered, the net migration level has been consistently below the net migration replacement level. The results further show that in Finland, Norway and Switzerland, the long-run implications of having constant fertility-mortality-net migration levels change from leading to population growth to leading to population decline. The opposite pattern is observed in Germany. The feasibility of preventing long-run population decreases through changes in net migration levels is discussed in light of the results.

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Back to replacement migration: A new European perspective applying the prospective-age concept

Cited by 14 publications

References 23 publications

Policy-based Population Projections for the European Union: A Complementary Approach

Policy-based Population Projections for the European Union: A Complementary Approach

Replacement migration on the edge of the European Union: Wasting human capital?

Immigration and the prospects for long-run population decreases in European countries

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