Immigration and the prospects for long-run population decreases in European countries

Abstract

Between 2009 and 2018, the total fertility rate fell in most European countries. In 2018, fertility was below the replacement level throughout Europe. Net migration was positive for two-thirds of European countries. This paper illustrates the implications for long-run population growth of observed net migration-fertilitymortality combinations in 20 European countries over the 2009–18 period by comparing the observed net migration to a zero population growth-related ‘replacement level’ for net migration. The results show that in several northern and north-western European countries, the net migration level has been consistently above this replacement level: if the net migration level and fertility and mortality rates remain constant, the population would increase. However, the findings also indicate that in all of the eastern European countries covered, the net migration level has been consistently below the net migration replacement level. The results further show that in Finland, Norway and Switzerland, the long-run implications of having constant fertility-mortality-net migration levels change from leading to population growth to leading to population decline. The opposite pattern is observed in Germany. The feasibility of preventing long-run population decreases through changes in net migration levels is discussed in light of the results.

An Alternative Perspective on the Changing Relationships between Fertility and Replacement Level in European Countries

“…Espenshade, Bouvier, and Brian Arthur (1982) illustrate a (total) population replacement level (volume) for migration which, in combination with constant fertility and mortality rates, would generate a stationary population equal in size to the then current U.S. population. Parr (2023a) illustrates the variation in values of this measure for an extensive range of European countries over 2009-2018. For differing ranges of countries and time periods, UNPD (2000), Bijak, Kupiszewska, and Kupiszewski (2008), Bijak et al (2013), andCraveiro et al (2019) summarized trajectories for what they called "replacement migration," which could maintain constant population size over specified finite time periods.…”

“…A sustained low birth rate alone does not guarantee a decrease. In theory, sustained high net migration may drive long‐run population growth even when fertility remains below the (“2.1”) replacement level (Pollard 1973; Espenshade, Bouvier, and Brian Arthur 1982; Parr 2021, 2023a). Over the 2009–2018 period, this paper considers net migration was positive for roughly two‐thirds of European countries (Eurostat 2021).…”