Baby busts and baby booms: The fertility response to shocks in dynastic models

Jones, Larry Eugene; Schoonbroodt, Alice

doi:10.1016/j.red.2016.07.001

Cited by 33 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 39 publications

(39 reference statements)

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“…For example, Jones and Schoonbroodt (2010) report calibrated value for the cost of children in terms of years of output for the U.S. around 1970, which ranges from 4.5 to 15.4. Jones and Schoonbroodt (2014) further estimate the cost of children in terms of both time and goods. The time cost amounts to 15 percent of work time, while the goods cost amounts to around 20 percent of household income.…”

Section: Estimation Results: 1960 -2010mentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Population Growth, Technology, and Malthusian Constraints: A Quantitative Growth Theoretic Perspective

Lanz

Dietz

Swanson

2017

Int Economic Review

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The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change combines cutting-edge scientific research with independent policy analysis to provide a solid foundation for the public and private decisions needed to mitigate and adapt to unavoidable global environmental changes. Being data-driven, the Program uses extensive Earth system and economic data and models to produce quantitative analysis and predictions of the risks of climate change and the challenges of limiting human influence on the environment-essential knowledge for the international dialogue toward a global response to climate change.To this end, the Program brings together an interdisciplinary group from two established MIT research centers: the Center for Global Change Science (CGCS) and the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR). These two centers-along with collaborators from the Marine Biology Laboratory (MBL) at Woods Hole and short-and longterm visitors-provide the united vision needed to solve global challenges.At the heart of much of the Program's work lies MIT's Integrated Global System Model. Through this integrated model, the Program seeks to: discover new interactions among natural and human climate system components; objectively assess uncertainty in economic and climate projections; critically and quantitatively analyze environmental management and policy proposals; understand complex connections among the many forces that will shape our future; and improve methods to model, monitor and verify greenhouse gas emissions and climatic impacts.This reprint is one of a series intended to communicate research results and improve public understanding of global environment and energy challenges, thereby contributing to informed debate about climate change and the economic and social implications of policy alternatives. AbstractWe structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long run evolution of global population, technological progress and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onwards show a slowdown of technological progress, and because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100 global population reaches 12 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress.

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Section: Estimation Results: 1960 -2010mentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Population Growth, Technology, and Malthusian Constraints: A Quantitative Growth Theoretic Perspective

Lanz

Dietz

Swanson

2017

Int Economic Review

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“…This method would allow us to pick up any corner solution if it were present. Notice that the policy function for capital crosses the 45°line from above, pointing to the existence of cycles in the neighborhood of the steady state (as in Jones & Schoonbroodt, 2016).…”

Section: Characteristics Of the Equilibrium: Stability And Cyclesmentioning

confidence: 90%

Population growth: A pure welfarist approach

Renström

Spataro

2018

J Public Economic Theory

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In this study we propose a framework based on welfarist principles to deal with several issues concerned with population economics models, such as the Repugnant Conclusion, both in absolute and relative sense, the shape of childbearing costs and population dynamics, under both normative and positive perspectives. We show that the relative critical level criterion can avoid both the assumption of high childbearing costs and the absolute repugnant conclusion (ARC) but cannot avoid the relative repugnant conclusion (RRC). Moreover, optimal fertility is increased by technological shocks and displays cycles. Both ARC and RRC can be avoided by extending the model to a decentralized economy with consumption externalities; in the latter model, a technological shock reduces long‐run fertility and can generate cycles along the transitional path.

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“…Much of the research into the causes of the baby boom has sought to provide an explanation based on economic factors, particularly in the case of the United States (Russell 2006;Emeka 2006;Murphy, Simon, and Tamura 2008;Tamura, Simon, and Murphy 2016;Jones and Schoonbroodt 2016). These studies give different justifications for this conundrum: Easterlin's hypotheses (1961Easterlin's hypotheses ( , 1965Easterlin's hypotheses ( , 1966Easterlin's hypotheses ( , 1975Easterlin's hypotheses ( , 1987, the relentless rise in real wages (Greenwood, Seshadri, and Vandenbroucke 2005), women's role in the workplace (Doepke, Hazan, and Maoz 2015;Macunovich 1996), the differences in salary between men and women (De Cooman, Ermisch, and Joshi 1987;Doepke, Hazan, and Maoz 2015), the differences in the maternal mortality (Albanesi and Olivetti 2014), and the falling price for space (Tamura and Simon 2017;Simon and Tamura 2009).…”

Section: Previous Explanationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring and explaining the baby boom in the developed world in the mid-twentieth century

Sánchez-Barricarte¹

2018

DemRes

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Baby busts and baby booms: The fertility response to shocks in dynastic models

Cited by 33 publications

References 39 publications

Global Population Growth, Technology, and Malthusian Constraints: A Quantitative Growth Theoretic Perspective

Global Population Growth, Technology, and Malthusian Constraints: A Quantitative Growth Theoretic Perspective

Population growth: A pure welfarist approach

Measuring and explaining the baby boom in the developed world in the mid-twentieth century

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