Avoidable burden of stomach cancer and potential gains in healthy life years from gradual reductions in salt consumption in Vietnam, 2019–2030: a modelling study

Abstract

Objective: Excess salt consumption is causally linked with stomach cancer, and salt intake among adults in Vietnam is about twice the recommended levels. The aim of this study was to quantify the future burden of stomach cancer that could be avoided from population-wide salt reduction in Vietnam. Design: A dynamic simulation model was developed to quantify the impacts of achieving the 2018 National Vietnam Health Program (8g/day by 2025 and 7g/day by 2030) and the WHO (5g/day) salt reduction targets. Data on salt consumption were obtained from the Vietnam 2015 WHO STEPS survey. Health outcomes were estimated over 6-year (2019 - 2025), 11-year (2019 - 2030) and lifetime horizons. We conducted one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Setting: Vietnam Participants: All adults aged ≥ 25 years (61 million people, 48.4% men) alive in 2019. Results: Achieving the 2025 and 2030 national salt targets could result in 3,400 and 7,200 fewer incident cases of stomach cancer respectively, and avert 1,900 and 4,800 stomach cancer deaths, respectively. Achieving the WHO target by 2030 could prevent 8,400 incident cases and 5,900 deaths from stomach cancer. Over the lifespan, this translated to 344,660 (8g/day), 411,060 (7g/day) and 493,633 (5g/day) HALYs gained respectively. Conclusions: A sizeable burden of stomach cancer could be avoided, with gains in healthy life years if national and WHO salt targets were attained. Our findings provide impetus for policy makers in Vietnam and Asia to intensify salt reduction strategies to combat stomach cancer and mitigate pressure on the health systems.

Estimated Impact of Achieving the Australian National Sodium Reduction Targets on Blood Pressure, Chronic Kidney Disease Burden and Healthcare Costs: A Modelling Study

“…Federal and State Governments in Australia must therefore work together to enforce robust and timely policies to avoid such losses. Realizing the policy targets modelled here has the potential to achieve even bigger health gains, through averting other health outcomes related to excess sodium intake, such as heart disease, stroke and stomach cancer [ 45 , 46 , 47 ].…”