Autoregressive models for time series of random sums of positive variables: Application to tree growth as a function of climate and insect outbreak

Debaly, Zinsou Max; Marchand, Philippe; Girona, Miguel Montoro

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110053

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

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“…Multiple previous studies have found an independent relationship between defoliation and/or climate (Candau & Fleming, 2005Debaly et al, 2022) and host species' growth (Girard et al, 2011;Marchand et al, 2019;Walker & Johnstone, 2014) in the boreal forest. In contrast, here we highlight the effect of climate-defoliation on black spruce growth by relying on dendrochronological databases and SBW outbreak records covering the large ecoregion of Québec (Canada).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Whereas, despite having enough study sites located in the northern region of the study area, there was a lower number of sites in the southern region, which also contained host trees other than black spruce i.e., white spruce and red spruce. These species could be considered in further studies to quantify the growth variability due to SBW and climate in a larger ecoregion of Quebec including southernmost sites (Debaly et al, 2022).…”

Section: Study Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The increasing trend of SBW defoliation was interlinked to complex processes occurring within the forest stands. The extent and intensity of defoliation are influenced by factors such as species, tree age, stand composition, the presence or absence of nonhost species, the ecoregion (Houndode et al, 2021;Kneeshaw et al, 2015;MacLean, 2016), and climate (Candau & Fleming, 2005Debaly et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluating the impact of climate change on the black spruce defoliation by spruce budworm

Subedi¹,

Girona²,

Marchand³

2023

Preprint

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Current ecological models predict profound climate change-related effects on the natural disturbance regimes of forests. Spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) (SBW) is the principal insect defoliator in eastern North America, and SBW outbreaks have a major impact on the structure and function of the Canadian boreal forest, as defoliation leads to decreased tree growth, increased mortality, and lower forest productivity. SBW outbreaks have become more severe over the last century with the changing climate; however, little is known about how the integrated effect of climate and SBW alters the growth of host species. Here we evaluate how climate and outbreak severity combined to affect black spruce (Picea mariana) growth during the SBW outbreak that occurred between 1968-1988 and 2006-2017. We compiled dendrochronological series (2271 trees), outbreak severity (estimated by observed aerial defoliation), and climate data for 164 sites in Québec, Canada. We used a linear mixed effect model to determine the impacts of climatic parameters, cumulative defoliation (of the previous five years), and their interaction effect on basal area growth. At maximum outbreak severity, basal area growth of black spruce was reduced by 14%–18% over five years due to SBW effect. This outbreak growth response was affected by climate: warmer previous summer minimum temperatures and a higher previous summer climate moisture index (CMI) further decreased growth by 11% and 4%, respectively. In contrast, the negative effect of defoliation was attenuated by 9% for a warmer minimum temperature in the previous spring and 7% for a warmer maximum temperature in the previous summer. This study improves our understanding of combined insect–climate effects on growth and helps in the predictions of future SBW-related damage to forest stands to bolster sustainable forest management. We also recommend that projections of boreal forest ecosystems include several classes of SBW defoliation severity coupled with multiple climatic scenarios.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Study Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluating the impact of climate change on the black spruce defoliation by spruce budworm

Subedi¹,

Girona²,

Marchand³

2023

Preprint

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“…Global climate change may have important impacts on forest productivity, biomass and phenological periods ( Hof et al., 2021 ; Guo et al., 2022 ; Molina et al., 2022 ). Climate factors are important drivers of forest productivity, and future climate change may lead to a decline ( Sabatia and Burkhart, 2014 ; Debaly et al., 2022 ) or an increase ( Chen et al., 2020 ) in forest productivity. To assess future global climate change, the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6) developed an emission scenario combining a shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) and a typical concentration pathway, and this method has been proven to be reasonable ( Meinshausen et al., 2020 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the growth suitability of Larix principis-rupprechtii Mayr based on site index under different climatic scenarios

et al. 2023

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Larix principis-rupprechtii Mayr (larch) is one of the main afforestation and timber production species used in North China. Climate change has led to a change in its suitable distribution and growth. However, the impact of climate change on its growth suitability is not clear. In this study, using forest resource inventory data and spatially continuous environmental factor data (temperature, precipitation, topography, and soil) in Hebei and Shanxi Provinces, China, the random forest model (RF) was used to simulate the larch site index (SI) and growth suitability under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for the current and future (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2080–2100). The results revealed that (1) RF had excellent performance in predicting the regional SI (R2 = 0.73, MAE = 0.93 m, RMSE = 1.35 m); (2) the main factors affecting the productivity of larch were the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (BIO10), elevation (ELEV), mean diurnal range (BIO2), and annual precipitation (BIO12); and (3) larch currently had a higher SI in the Bashang areas and in the high-altitude mountains. The areas characterized as unsuitable, poorly suitable, moderately suitable, and highly suitable accounted for 15.45%, 42.12%, 31.94%, and 10.49% of the total area, respectively. (4) Future climate warming had an obvious inhibitory effect on the SI, and the effect strengthened with increasing radiation intensity and year. (5) The moderately suitable and highly suitable areas of larch growth showed a downward trend under future climate scenarios. By the end of this century, the suitable growth areas would decrease by 14.14% under SSP1-2.6, 15.17% under SSP2-4.5, and 19.35% under SSP5-8.5. The results revealed the impact of climate change on larch growth suitability, which can provide a scientific basis for larch forest management.

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“…Ecosystem effects of insect outbreaks can happen through various direct and indirect mechanisms: leaf removal increases light and temperature on the forest floor; exploding caterpillar populations increase prey availability for many predators; and frass, insect corpses and dropped foliage constitute nutrient transfers from trees to soils [5,[7][8][9][10][11]. Together, these effects can stimulate decomposition, enhance nutrient mineralization, increase soil respiration, promote plant growth and alter brown food webs, defined by the consumption of decaying biomass by detritivores [12][13][14][15][16][17]. However, the full complexity of underground food webs, referring to any trophic interaction taking place in and under the layer of litter, remains poorly understood, and the role of soil arthropods in mediating the effects of leaf-eating insect outbreaks on ecosystem functioning is not clear [18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest Tent Caterpillar Outbreaks Drive Change in Ant Communities in Boreal Forests

Caron

Koudji

Handa

et al. 2023

Forests

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Insect outbreaks are major drivers of natural disturbances in forest ecosystems. Outbreaks can have both direct and indirect effects on the composition of soil arthropod communities through canopy opening, nutrient addition and predator-prey interactions. In this study, we aimed to understand the effects of forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria; FTC) outbreaks through cascading effects on ant communities in both temperate and boreal forests in Canada. Pitfall traps and Berlese funnels were used to compare the ant communities, as well as the surrounding arthropod communities, between control and outbreak sites in boreal and temperate forests (in Quebec, Canada). Using the Sørensen dissimilarity index, we determined the alpha and beta diversity of the ant community. Other arthropods collected in the traps were counted to evaluate the richness and abundance of potential prey for the ants and other potential predators of the FTC. We used an indicator species analysis to examine the species associated with sites defoliated by the outbreak. In the boreal forest, we found that FTC outbreaks caused decreases in species richness and increases in the evenness of ant communities in defoliated sites. In the boreal forest sites, species composition varied significantly between control and outbreak sites. This pattern was driven in part by the presence of other predators. A similar, but weaker pattern was observed in the temperate forest. We saw no changes in the beta diversity in the boreal forest, but did see a significant decrease in the temperate forest between the outbreak sites and the control sites. Ant species in the boreal forest tended to exhibit a more marked preference for either control or previously defoliated sites than species in the temperate forest. Our study showed that disturbances such as insect outbreaks can drive changes in the ant community. While we saw small effects of outbreaks, manipulation experiments using resource addition could help us validate the mechanisms behind these relationships.

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Autoregressive models for time series of random sums of positive variables: Application to tree growth as a function of climate and insect outbreak

Cited by 5 publications

References 45 publications

Evaluating the impact of climate change on the black spruce defoliation by spruce budworm

Evaluating the impact of climate change on the black spruce defoliation by spruce budworm

Predicting the growth suitability of Larix principis-rupprechtii Mayr based on site index under different climatic scenarios

Forest Tent Caterpillar Outbreaks Drive Change in Ant Communities in Boreal Forests

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