Predicting the growth suitability of Larix principis-rupprechtii Mayr based on site index under different climatic scenarios

Abstract

Larix principis-rupprechtii Mayr (larch) is one of the main afforestation and timber production species used in North China. Climate change has led to a change in its suitable distribution and growth. However, the impact of climate change on its growth suitability is not clear. In this study, using forest resource inventory data and spatially continuous environmental factor data (temperature, precipitation, topography, and soil) in Hebei and Shanxi Provinces, China, the random forest model (RF) was used to simulate the larch site index (SI) and growth suitability under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for the current and future (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2080–2100). The results revealed that (1) RF had excellent performance in predicting the regional SI (R2 = 0.73, MAE = 0.93 m, RMSE = 1.35 m); (2) the main factors affecting the productivity of larch were the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (BIO10), elevation (ELEV), mean diurnal range (BIO2), and annual precipitation (BIO12); and (3) larch currently had a higher SI in the Bashang areas and in the high-altitude mountains. The areas characterized as unsuitable, poorly suitable, moderately suitable, and highly suitable accounted for 15.45%, 42.12%, 31.94%, and 10.49% of the total area, respectively. (4) Future climate warming had an obvious inhibitory effect on the SI, and the effect strengthened with increasing radiation intensity and year. (5) The moderately suitable and highly suitable areas of larch growth showed a downward trend under future climate scenarios. By the end of this century, the suitable growth areas would decrease by 14.14% under SSP1-2.6, 15.17% under SSP2-4.5, and 19.35% under SSP5-8.5. The results revealed the impact of climate change on larch growth suitability, which can provide a scientific basis for larch forest management.

Stand spatial structure and productivity based on random structural unit in Larix principis‐rupprechtii forests

“…Larch, prevalent in northern China, has become an economically and ecologically important tree species due to its rapid growth, superior timber quality, and impressive cold resistance (Cheng et al, 2023). Despite its significance, limited research exists on the spatial structural characteristics of both pure and mixed larch forests across varying stand ages and their consequent impact on productivity.…”

Growth data of outlying plantations allows benchmarking the tolerance to climate extremes and drought stress in the European larch

“…Indeed, growth decline and retraction of larch forests have been documented in xeric mountain areas from Asia (Dulamsuren et al, 2010;Xu et al, 2017;Zhou et al, 2021). Growth models using as input different climate scenarios also suggest a decline in productivity of mountain larch (Larix principis-rupprechtii) populations in north China linked to climate warming (Duan et al, 2022;Cheng et al, 2023). However, such information is lacking for southern Europe where larch species, including the European larch (Larix decidua Mill.…”

Soil Microbial Community, Soil Quality, and Productivity along a Chronosequence of Larix principis-rupprechtii Forests

“…Larch is a prominent afforestation species in northern China, with the advantages of fast growth, superior wood quality, soil and wind retention, and high resilience to climate change. However, it faces significant challenges, including low forest quality, limited productivity, and instability, which hinder the effective utilization of the multifunctional benefits offered by forests [ 22 ]. Most previous studies have focused on how aboveground biomes influence productivity, while often neglecting the role of belowground soil biomes, which are intricately linked to plant growth and nutrient utilization [ 23 ].…”