Aumento inusitado de casos de malaria en Guainía, Colombia 2015 -2017

Botero, Daniela Salas; Córdoba, Julietd Tatiana Parra; Vásquez, Carlos Eric Azcarate; Ramírez, Carlos Humberto Murcia

doi:10.33610/01229907.v22n14

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Finally, the existence of indigenous communities in the area increases the susceptibility of this municipality to malaria 57 . Consequently, the municipality requires the implementation of prevention and control strategies as it ranks high on the priority list for such plans 58 .…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Time-lagged response of malaria transmission to climate and land use change in a Colombian Amazonian Municipality: Implications for Early Warning Systems and Control Strategies

Gonzalez-Daza

Herrera

Altamiranda‐Saavedra

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Malaria remains a significant public health problem worldwide, particularly in low-income regions with limited access to healthcare. Despite the use of antimalarial drugs, transmission remains an issue in Colombia, especially among indigenous populations in remote areas. In this study, we used an SIR Ross MacDonald model that considered land use changes, temperature, and precipitation to analyze eco epidemiological parameters and the impact of time lags on malaria transmission in La Pedrera - Amazonas municipality. We found changes in land use between 2007 and 2020, with increases in forested areas, urban infrastructure and water edges area resulting in a constant increase in mosquito carrying capacity. Temperature and precipitation variables exhibited a fluctuating pattern that corresponded to rainy and dry seasons, respectively and a marked influence of the El Niño climatic phenomenon. Our findings suggest that elevated precipitation and temperature increase malaria infection risk in the following two months influenced by the secondary vegetation and urban infrastructure near primary forest formation or water body edges. These results may be useful for public health officials and policymakers in developing effective malaria control strategies by monitoring precipitation, temperature, and land use variables to predict high-risk areas and periods, considering the time lag effect.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Time-lagged response of malaria transmission to climate and land use change in a Colombian Amazonian Municipality: Implications for Early Warning Systems and Control Strategies

Gonzalez-Daza

Herrera

Altamiranda‐Saavedra

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Directing public health care policies, confirming a clinical diagnosis, and conducting accurate infectious disease surveillance requires proper laboratory testing; however, access is restricted in many middle-or low-income tropical or subtropical countries, especially where primary care physicians face this infection [11,32]. According to reports from the National Health Institute, in Colombia, only 1.08% of CHIKV-infected patients (5231 out of 482,326) were clinically confirmed in a laboratory between epidemiological week 37 of 2014 and week 44 of 2019 [33][34][35][36][37][38]. The lack of confirmation of CHIKV infection increases the need for a reliable clinical diagnostic tool to aid primary care physicians when facing patients where common arboviral diseases caused by CHIKV, ZIKAV, and DENV are endemic or epidemic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Clinical Diagnosis of Chikungunya Infection: An Essential Aid in a Primary Care Setting Where Serological Confirmation Is Not Available

et al. 2023

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Background: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) diagnosis has become a challenge for primary care physicians in areas where the Zika virus and/or Dengue virus are present. Case definitions for the three arboviral infections overlap. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis was carried out. A bivariate analysis was made using confirmed CHIKV infection as the outcome. Variables with significant statistical association were included in an agreement consensus. Agreed variables were analyzed in a multiple regression model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated to determine a cut-off value and performance. Results: 295 patients with confirmed CHIKV infection were included. A screening tool was created using symmetric arthritis (4 points), fatigue (3 points), rash (2 points), and ankle joint pain (1 point). The ROC curve identified a cut-off value, and a score ≥ 5.5 was considered positive for identifying CHIKV patients with a sensibility of 64.4% and a specificity of 87.4%, positive predictive value of 85.5%, negative predictive value of 67.7%, area under the curve of 0.72, and an accuracy of 75%. Conclusion: We developed a screening tool for CHIKV diagnosis using only clinical symptoms as well as proposed an algorithm to aid the primary care physician.

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“…Directing public health care policies, confirming a clinical diagnosis, and conducting accurate infectious disease surveillance requires proper laboratory testing; however, access is restricted in many middle-or low-income tropical or subtropical countries, especially where primary care physicians face this infection [11,32] . According to reports from the National Health Institute, in Colombia, only 1.08% of CHIKV-infected patients (5231 out of 482326) were clinically confirmed in laboratory during epidemiological week 37 of 2014 to week 44 of 2019 [33][34][35][36][37][38]. The lack of confirmation of CHIKV infection increases the need for a reliable clinical diagnostic tool to aid primary care physicians when facing patients where common arboviral diseases caused by CHIKV, ZIKAV, and DENV are endemic or epidemic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Clinical Diagnosis for Chikungunya Infection: An Essential Aid in a Primary Care Setting Where Serological Confirmation Is Not Available

Rueda¹,

Peláez‐Ballestas²,

Angarita³

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) diagnosis have become a challenge for primary care physicians in areas where zika virus and/or dengue virus are present. Case definitions for the three arboviral infections are overlapping. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis was carried out. A bivariate analysis was made using confirmed CHIKV infection as the outcome. Variables with significant statistical association were included in an agreement consensus. Agreed variables were analyzed in multiple regression model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated to determine a cut-off value and performance. Results: 295 patients with confirmed CHIKV infection were included. A screening tool was made using symmetric arthritis (4 points), fatigue (3 points), rash (2 points) and ankle joint pain (1 point). The ROC curve identified a cut-off value and a score ≥ 5.5 was considered positive to identify CHIKV patients with a sensibility of 64.4% and a specificity of 87.4%, positive predictive value of 85.5%, negative predictive value of 67.7%, area under the curve of 0.72, and an accuracy of 75%. Conclusion: We developed a screening tool for CHIKV diagnosis using only clinical symptoms as well as proposed an algorithm to aid the primary care physician.

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Aumento inusitado de casos de malaria en Guainía, Colombia 2015 -2017

Cited by 5 publications

References 8 publications

Time-lagged response of malaria transmission to climate and land use change in a Colombian Amazonian Municipality: Implications for Early Warning Systems and Control Strategies

Time-lagged response of malaria transmission to climate and land use change in a Colombian Amazonian Municipality: Implications for Early Warning Systems and Control Strategies

Clinical Diagnosis of Chikungunya Infection: An Essential Aid in a Primary Care Setting Where Serological Confirmation Is Not Available

Clinical Diagnosis for Chikungunya Infection: An Essential Aid in a Primary Care Setting Where Serological Confirmation Is Not Available

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