Attribution of climate extreme events

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Shepherd, Theodore G.

doi:10.1038/nclimate2657

Cited by 668 publications

(450 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…In addition to short-term accuracy and long-term trends, they will also focus on spatial patterns by incorporating or improving accurate representations of land surface conditions and processes within the coupled weather and climate Earth systems. Thus, these reanalyses will advance the simulation of landatmosphere interactions to yield high skill in studies of regional warming and the detection and attribution of regional climate change using various datasets, which frequently include global and regional reanalyses (Zhou et al, 2018;Zhou and Wang, 2016d;Herring et al, 2018;Trenberth et al, 2015;Stott, 2016;Dai et al, 2017;Zhou and Wang, 2017b). Additionally, the uncertainties associated with regional warming could be ascertained using physics ensembles with various equiprobable realizations of boundary conditions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the suitability of current atmospheric reanalyses for regional warming studies over China

Zhou

Wang

2018

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. Reanalyses are widely used because they add value to routine observations by generating physically or dynamically consistent and spatiotemporally complete atmospheric fields. Existing studies include extensive discussions of the temporal suitability of reanalyses in studies of global change. This study adds to this existing work by investigating the suitability of reanalyses in studies of regional climate change, in which land-atmosphere interactions play a comparatively important role. In this study, surface air temperatures (T a ) from 12 current reanalysis products are investigated; in particular, the spatial patterns of trends in T a are examined using homogenized measurements of T a made at ∼ 2200 meteorological stations in China from 1979 to 2010. The results show that ∼ 80 % of the mean differences in T a between the reanalyses and the in situ observations can be attributed to the differences in elevation between the stations and the model grids. Thus, the T a climatologies display good skill, and these findings rebut previous reports of biases in T a . However, the biases in theT a trends in the reanalyses diverge spatially (standard deviation = 0.15-0.30 • C decade −1 using 1 • × 1 • grid cells). The simulated biases in the trends in T a correlate well with those of precipitation frequency, surface incident solar radiation (R s ) and atmospheric downward longwave radiation (L d ) among the reanalyses (r = −0.83, 0.80 and 0.77; p < 0.1) when the spatial patterns of these variables are considered. The biases in the trends in T a over southern China (on the order of −0.07 • C decade −1 ) are caused by biases in the trends in R s , L d and precipitation frequency on the order of 0.10, −0.08 and −0.06 • C decade −1 , respectively. The biases in the trends in T a over northern China (on the order of −0.12 • C decade −1 ) result jointly from those in L d and precipitation frequency. Therefore, improving the simulation of precipitation frequency and R s helps to maximize the signal component corresponding to regional climate. In addition, the analysis of T a observations helps represent regional warming in ERA-Interim and JRA-55. Incorporating vegetation dynamics in reanalyses and the use of accurate aerosol information, as in the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), would lead to improvements in the modelling of regional warming. The use of the ensemble technique adopted in the twentieth-century atmospheric model ensemble ERA-20CM significantly narrows the uncertainties associated with regional warming in reanalyses (standard deviation = 0.15 • C decade −1 ).

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the suitability of current atmospheric reanalyses for regional warming studies over China

Zhou

Wang

2018

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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“…One study suggests that U.S. marine saltwater wetlands provide $23.2 billion dollars of storm protection every year (Costanza et al 2008) while another study estimates that every hectare of salt marsh provides US $8,234 dollars, or US $3,334 per acre, in storm protection, on average, per year (Barbier et al 2011). Since a warmer climate contributes to increased storm intensity (Trenberth et al 2015), enhancing these protective measures is seen as a cost-effective way to protect coastal communities and infrastructure. The storm protection qualities of wetlands are leading many policy and decision makers to consider more investments in protecting or restoring coastal wetlands and other ecosystems to provide the climate adaptation benefits of natural storm and erosion reduction (Barbier 2014;Sutton-Grier et al 2015).…”

Section: Salt Marsh and Mangrove Response To A Changing Climate And Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Wetlands In a Changing Climate: Science, Policy and Management

Moomaw

Chmura

Davies³

et al. 2018

Wetlands

259

126

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Part 1 of this review synthesizes recent research on status and climate vulnerability of freshwater and saltwater wetlands, and their contribution to addressing climate change (carbon cycle, adaptation, resilience). Peatlands and vegetated coastal wetlands are among the most carbon rich sinks on the planet sequestering approximately as much carbon as do global forest ecosystems. Estimates of the consequences of rising temperature on current wetland carbon storage and future carbon sequestration potential are summarized. We also demonstrate the need to prevent drying of wetlands and thawing of permafrost by disturbances and rising temperatures to protect wetland carbon stores and climate adaptation/resiliency ecosystem services. Preventing further wetland loss is found to be important in limiting future emissions to meet climate goals, but is seldom considered. In Part 2, the paper explores the policy and management realm from international to national, subnational and local levels to identify strategies and policies reflecting an integrated understanding of both wetland and climate change science. Specific recommendations are made to capture synergies between wetlands and carbon cycle management, adaptation and resiliency to further enable researchers, policy makers and practitioners to protect wetland carbon and climate adaptation/resiliency ecosystem services.

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“…This follows on other recent years with extreme flooding in Michigan (2014) and Colorado (2013) and the mid-Atlantic floods caused by Superstorm Sandy (Hurricane Sandy) in 2012 (NOAA, 2016). With each occurrence of these damaging flood events, there is renewed interest in determining whether climate change may be partially responsible for changes in the magnitude or frequency of these events (e.g., IPCC, 2012;Trenberth et al, 2015). Although the science linking changes in climate extremes to human-caused warming is advancing (e.g., Trenberth et al, 2015; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2016), there are still many challenges to attributing observed historical trends in flooding…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

Wobus

Gutmann

Jones

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year) flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.

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Attribution of climate extreme events

Cited by 668 publications

References 29 publications

On the suitability of current atmospheric reanalyses for regional warming studies over China

On the suitability of current atmospheric reanalyses for regional warming studies over China

Wetlands In a Changing Climate: Science, Policy and Management

Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

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