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Climate change is expected to accelerate the hydrologic cycle, increase the fraction of precipitation that is rain, and enhance snowpack melting. The enhanced hydrological cycle is also expected to increase snowfall amounts due to increased moisture availability. These processes are examined in this paper in the Colorado Headwaters region through the use of a coupled high-resolution climate-runoff model. Four high-resolution simulations of annual snowfall over Colorado are conducted. The simulations are verified using Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) data. Results are then presented regarding the grid spacing needed for appropriate simulation of snowfall. Finally, climate sensitivity is explored using a pseudo-global warming approach. The results show that the proper spatial and temporal depiction of snowfall adequate for water resource and climate change purposes can be achieved with the appropriate choice of model grid spacing and parameterizations. The pseudo-global warming simulations indicate enhanced snowfall on the order of 10%-25% over the Colorado Headwaters region, with the enhancement being less in the core headwaters region due to the topographic reduction of precipitation upstream of the region (rain-shadow effect). The main climate change impacts are in the enhanced melting at the lower-elevation bound of the snowpack and the increased snowfall at higher elevations. The changes in peak snow mass are generally near zero due to these two compensating effects, and simulated wintertime total runoff is above current levels. The 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) is reduced by 25% in the warmer climate, and the date of maximum SWE occurs 2-17 days prior to current climate results, consistent with previous studies.

This work advances a unified approach to process-based hydrologic modeling to enable controlled and systematic evaluation of multiple model representations (hypotheses) of hydrologic processes and scaling behavior. Our approach, which we term the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA), formulates a general set of conservation equations, providing the flexibility to experiment with different spatial representations, different flux parameterizations, different model parameter values, and different time stepping schemes. In this paper, we introduce the general approach used in SUMMA, detailing the spatial organization and model simplifications, and how different representations of multiple physical processes can be combined within a single modeling framework. We discuss how SUMMA can be used to systematically pursue the method of multiple working hypotheses in hydrology. In particular, we discuss how SUMMA can help tackle major hydrologic modeling challenges, including defining the appropriate complexity of a model, selecting among competing flux parameterizations, representing spatial variability across a hierarchy of scales, identifying potential improvements in computational efficiency and numerical accuracy as part of the numerical solver, and improving understanding of the various sources of model uncertainty.

Snow is an important component of the climate system and a critical storage component in the hydrologic cycle. However, in situ observations of snow distribution are sparse, and remotely sensed products are imprecise and only available at a coarse spatial scale. GPS geodesists have long recognized that snow can affect a GPS signal, but it has not been shown that a GPS receiver placed in a standard geodetic orientation can be used to measure snow depth. In this paper, it is shown that changes in snow depth can be clearly tracked in the corresponding multipath modulation of the GPS signal. Results for two spring 2009 snowstorms in Colorado show strong agreement between GPS snow depth estimates, field measurements, and nearby ultrasonic snow depth sensors. Because there are hundreds of geodetic GPS receivers operating in snowy regions of the U.S., it is possible that GPS receivers installed for plate deformation studies, surveying, and weather monitoring could be used to also estimate snow depth.

Measurements of soil moisture, both its global distribution and temporal variations, are required to study the water and carbon cycles. A global network of in situ soil moisture stations is needed to supplement datasets from satellite sensors. We demonstrate that signals routinely recorded by Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers for precise positioning applications can also be related to surface soil moisture variations. Over a three month interval, GPS‐derived estimates from a 300 m2 area closely match soil moisture fluctuations in the top 5 cm of soil measured with conventional sensors, including the rate and amount of drying following six precipitation events. Thousands of GPS receivers that exist worldwide could be used to estimate soil moisture in near real‐time, with L‐band signals that complement future satellite missions.

A high-resolution climate model (4-km horizontal grid spacing) is used to examine the following question: How will long-term changes in climate impact the partitioning of annual precipitation between evapotranspiration and runoff in the Colorado Headwaters? This question is examined using a climate sensitivity approach in which eight years of current climate is compared to a future climate created by modifying the current climate signal with perturbation from the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), model forced by the A1B scenario for greenhouse gases out to 2050. The current climate period is shown to agree well with Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) surface observations of precipitation (P) and snowpack, as well as streamflow and AmeriFlux evapotranspiration (ET) observations. The results show that the annual evaporative fraction (ET/P) for the Colorado Headwaters is 0.81 for the current climate and 0.83 for the future climate, indicating increasing aridity in the future despite a positive increase of precipitation. Runoff decreased by an average of 6%, reflecting the increased aridity. Precipitation increased in the future winter by 12%, but decreased in the summer as a result of increased low-level inhibition to convection. The fraction of precipitation that fell as snow decreased from 0.83 in the current climate to 0.74 in the future. Future snowpack did not change significantly until January. From January to March the snowpack increased above ~3000 m MSL and decreased below that level. Snowpack decreased at all elevations in the future from April to July. The peak snowpack and runoff over the headwaters occurred 2–3 weeks earlier in the future simulation, in agreement with previous studies.

Estimating spatially distributed parameters remains one of the biggest challenges for large‐domain hydrologic modeling. Many large‐domain modeling efforts rely on spatially inconsistent parameter fields, e.g., patchwork patterns resulting from individual basin calibrations, parameter fields generated through default transfer functions that relate geophysical attributes to model parameters, or spatially constant, default parameter values. This paper provides an initial assessment of a multiscale parameter regionalization (MPR) method over large geographical domains to derive seamless parameters in a spatially consistent manner. MPR applies transfer functions at the native scale of the geophysical data, and then scales these model parameters to the desired model resolution. We developed a stand‐alone framework called MPR‐flex for multimodel use and applied MPR‐flex to the variable infiltration capacity model to produce hydrologic simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS). We first independently calibrate 531 basins across CONUS to obtain a performance benchmark for each basin. To derive the CONUS parameter fields, we perform a joint MPR calibration using all but the poorest behaved basins to obtain a single set of transfer function parameters that are applied to the entire CONUS. Results show that CONUS‐wide calibration has similar performance compared to previous simulations using a patchwork quilt of partially calibrated parameter sets, but without the spatial discontinuities in parameters that characterize some previous CONUS‐domain model simulations. Several avenues to improve CONUS‐wide calibration remain, including selection of calibration basins, objective function formulation, as well as MPR‐flex improvements including transfer function formulations and scaling operator optimization.