Attributing the U.S. Southwest's Recent Shift Into Drier Conditions

Lehner, Flavio; Deser, Clara; Simpson, Isla R.; Terray, Laurent

doi:10.1029/2018gl078312

Cited by 88 publications

(114 citation statements)

References 75 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

107

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The residual variability then reveals the internal and anthropogenically forced thermodynamic contributions (Deser et al, ; Merrifield et al, ; Wallace et al, , ). The methods of dynamical adjustment based on partial least squares (PLS) regression and constructed circulation analogs have been used to estimate quantitatively the importance of external forcings and internal atmospheric circulation variability in hemispheric and regional temperature and precipitation (e.g., Deser et al, ; Guo et al, ; Hu et al, ; Lehner et al, ; Smoliak et al, ). Here we use a PLS technique to separate the influences between the atmospheric circulation variability and thermodynamics from observed temperature anomalies to attribute underlying trends over the East Asia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of the East Asian Winter Temperature Trends During 1979–2018: Role of External Forcing and Internal Variability

Gong

Wang

Chen

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Attributing the surface air temperature (SAT) trends at regional scale to internally generated and externally forced components is a major challenge. Based on the observations and ensemble simulations of climate models, we apply a “dynamical adjustment” methodology to estimate quantitatively the contribution of the internal and forced dynamic and thermodynamic components to the East Asian winter SAT trends during 1979–2018. The observed winter SAT trends are strongly influenced by internal variability, especially in the northern East Asia (NEA). The internal component of observed SAT trends is largely dynamically induced, whereas the forced component is controlled by thermodynamics. The internally generated variability offsets the forced warming by more than 70% in the NEA, leading to a weak observed warming in the NEA. In contrast, internal contributions are small in the southern East Asia. The internally generated SAT changes in the NEA are closely tied to the multidecadal changes of Arctic Oscillation.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of the East Asian Winter Temperature Trends During 1979–2018: Role of External Forcing and Internal Variability

Gong

Wang

Chen

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In Arizona, summer rainfall brought by the North American monsoon is projected to weaken (Pascale et al, ), potentially leading to drier and dustier summers. It is also important to recognize that there is significant low‐frequency (decadal) internal variability in precipitation in the western United States, driven, for example, by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, that may seemingly dampen or amplify the effects of climate change (e.g., Lehner et al, ). In our analysis, variability in precipitation causes some counties to switch back and forth over time in terms of their designation as endemic.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Expansion of Coccidioidomycosis Endemic Regions in the United States in Response to Climate Change

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever) is a fungal disease endemic to the southwestern United States. Across this region, temperature and precipitation influence the extent of the endemic region and number of Valley fever cases. Climate projections for the western United States indicate that temperatures will increase and precipitation patterns will shift, which may alter disease dynamics. We estimated the area potentially endemic to Valley fever using a climate niche model derived from contemporary climate and disease incidence data. We then used our model with projections of climate from Earth system models to assess how endemic areas will change during the 21st century. By 2100 in a high warming scenario, our model predicts that the area of climate‐limited endemicity will more than double, the number of affected states will increase from 12 to 17, and the number of Valley fever cases will increase by 50%. The Valley fever endemic region will expand north into dry western states, including Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. Precipitation will limit the disease from spreading into states farther east and along the central and northern Pacific coast. This is the first quantitative estimate of how climate change may influence Valley fever in the United States. Our predictive model of Valley fever endemicity may provide guidance to public health officials to establish disease surveillance programs and design mitigation efforts to limit the impacts of this disease.

show abstract

“…, Lehner et al. ). Projections for PPT are more uncertain than those of temperature in this region and may include a combination of small changes in seasonal rainfall and/or increasing inter‐ and intra‐annual variability (Gutzler and Robbins ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Local‐regional similarity in drylands increases during multiyear wet and dry periods and in response to extreme events

et al. 2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change is predicted to impact ecosystems through altered precipitation (PPT) regimes. In the Chihuahuan Desert, multiyear wet and dry periods and extreme PPT pulses are the most influential climatic events for vegetation. Vegetation responses are most frequently studied locally, and regional responses are often unclear. We present an approach to quantify correlation of PPT and vegetation responses (as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index [NDVI]) at the Jornada ARS‐LTER site (JRN; 550 km2 area) and the surrounding dryland region (from 0 to 500 km distance; 400,000 km2 study area) as a way to understand regional similarity to locally observed patterns. We focused on fluctuating wet and dry years, multiyear wet or dry periods of 3–4 yr, and multiyear wet periods that contained one or more extreme high PPT pulses or extreme low rainfall. In all but extreme high PPT years, JRN PPT was highly correlated (r > 0.9) to PPT across the regional study area (0–500 km distance; high correlation from 25th to 75th percentiles) and was highly correlated across a greater PPT range subregionally (0–200 km distance; high correlation from 10th to 90th percentiles). In contrast, the statistical distribution of JRN NDVI was less similar to that of regional NDVI. Yet, local‐regional NDVI similarity increased during multiyear periods to a maximum of >90% similarity for 10th–90th percentiles in a number of years. Thus, local‐regional heterogeneity in PPT and vegetation responses is reduced in both multiyear wet and dry periods, with the largest changes in climatic forcing and responses during multiyear wet periods. These wet and dry events support greater similarity between local‐regional PPT and vegetation response patterns. We conclude that site‐based research on multiyear periods can be extended to anticipate larger regional responses, and illustrate the opportunity to enhance understanding of future PPT change through increased focus on multiyear periods.

show abstract

Attributing the U.S. Southwest's Recent Shift Into Drier Conditions

Cited by 88 publications

References 75 publications

Attribution of the East Asian Winter Temperature Trends During 1979–2018: Role of External Forcing and Internal Variability

Attribution of the East Asian Winter Temperature Trends During 1979–2018: Role of External Forcing and Internal Variability

Expansion of Coccidioidomycosis Endemic Regions in the United States in Response to Climate Change

Local‐regional similarity in drylands increases during multiyear wet and dry periods and in response to extreme events

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About