Atmospheric transport pathways from the Bilibino nuclear power plant to Alaska

Mahura, Alexander; Jaffe, Daniel A.; Andres, R. J.; Merrill, J. T.

doi:10.1016/s1352-2310(99)00168-5

Cited by 20 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…• Cluster analysis (Mahura, 1998;Mahura et al, 1999;Baklanov et al, 2002a) to identify atmospheric transport pathways from NRSs;…”

Section: General Scheme For Probabilistic Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Therefore, the second approach is based on the evaluation of the probabilistic fields for the "precipitation factor" (ÖCB, 2000;INTAS, 2000;Mahura et al, 2001). An example is shown in Fig.…”

Section: Removal or Precipitation Factormentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These studies were continued during 1995-1997, and extended for NRSs of the Barents region in a series of international pilot studies/projects where the dispersion modelling, system analysis, and ranging of possible risk from different sites were employed (IIASA, 1996;. During 1996-1997,another study was performed for the Bilibino NPP using trajectory modelling and cluster analysis to evaluate atmospheric transport pathways from NPP to the State of Alaska (Jaffe et al, 1997a;Mahura, 1998). During 1997During -1998, a similar study which included more detailed probabilistic and several specific cases analyses, was realized for the Kola NPP (Jaffe et al, 1997b;).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…During 1997During -1998, a similar study which included more detailed probabilistic and several specific cases analyses, was realized for the Kola NPP (Jaffe et al, 1997b;). During 1998-2000, for multidisciplinary analysis of nuclear risk in the Barents region the "Risk and Nuclear Waste" Programme was initiated (Baklanov and Bergman, 1999;ÖCB, 2000;Mahura et al, 2001). At the same period, the INTAS Project supplemented theÖCB Project INTAS, 2000).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of possible airborne impact from risk sites: methodology for probabilistic atmospheric studies

Baklanov

Mahura

2004

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract.The main purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for a multidisciplinary nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment, and to test this methodology through estimation of a nuclear risk to population in the Northern European countries in case of a severe accident at the nuclear risk sites. For assessment of the probabilistic risk and vulnerability, a combination of social-geophysical factors and probabilities are considered.The main focus of this paper is the description of methodology for evaluation of the atmospheric transport of radioactive releases from the risk site regions based on the long-term trajectory modeling. The suggested methodology is given from the probabilistic point of view. The main questions stated are: What are probabilities and times for radionuclide atmospheric transport to different neighbouring countries and territories in case of the hypothetical accidental release at the nuclear risk site? Which geographical territories or countries are at the highest risk from the hypothetical accidental releases?To answer these questions we suggest applying the following research tools for probabilistic atmospheric studies. First tool is atmospheric modelling to calculate multiyear forward trajectories originated over the sites. Second tool is statistical analyses to explore temporal and spatial structure of calculated trajectories and evaluate different probabilistic impact indicators: atmospheric transport pathways, airflow, fast transport, typical transport time, maximum possible impact zone, maximum reaching distance, etc. These indicators are applicable for further GIS-analysis and integration to estimate regional risk and vulnerability in case of accidental releases at the risk sites and for planning the emergency response and preparedness systems.

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“…• Cluster analysis (Mahura, 1998;Mahura et al, 1999;Baklanov et al, 2002a) to identify atmospheric transport pathways from NRSs;…”

Section: General Scheme For Probabilistic Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Removal or Precipitation Factormentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Assessment of possible airborne impact from risk sites: methodology for probabilistic atmospheric studies

Baklanov

Mahura

2004

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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“…Although other indicators such as simple characteristics of the NRS possible impact, atmospheric transport pathways, airflow patterns, precipitation factor, etc. might be considered for the nuclear risk sites (Mahura et al, 1999;Baklanov et al, 2002;Mahura, 2002;Mahura and Baklanov, 2002;Mahura et al, 2003).…”

Section: Statistical Analysis Of Atmospheric Transport and Concentratmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methodology for prediction and estimation of consequences of possible atmospheric releases of hazardous matter: "Kursk" submarine study

2003

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Abstract. There are objects with some periods of higher than normal levels of risk of accidental atmospheric releases (nuclear, chemical, biological, etc.). Such accidents or events may occur due to natural hazards, human errors, terror acts, and during transportation of waste or various operations at high risk. A methodology for risk assessment is suggested and it includes two approaches: 1) probabilistic analysis of possible atmospheric transport patterns using long-term trajectory and dispersion modelling, and 2) forecast and evaluation of possible contamination and consequences for the environment and population using operational dispersion modelling. The first approach could be applied during the preparation stage, and the second -during the operation stage. The suggested methodology is applied on an example of the most important phases (lifting, transportation, and decommissioning) of the "Kursk" nuclear submarine operation.It is found that the temporal variability of several probabilistic indicators (fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance, maximum possible impact zone, and average integral concentration of 137 Cs) showed that the fall of 2001 was the most appropriate time for the beginning of the operation. These indicators allowed to identify the hypothetically impacted geographical regions and territories. In cases of atmospheric transport toward the most populated areas, the forecasts of possible consequences during phases of the high and medium potential risk levels based on a unit hypothetical release (e.g. 1 Bq) are performed. The analysis showed that the possible deposition fractions of 10 −11 (Bq/m 2 ) over the Kola Peninsula, and 10 −12 -10 −13 (Bq/m 2 ) for the remote areas of the Scandinavia and Northwest Russia could be observed.The suggested methodology may be used successfully for any potentially dangerous object involving risk of atmospheric release of hazardous materials of nuclear, chemical or biological nature.

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Arctic Ocean: Radionuclides

Zaborska¹,

Carroll²

2005

Encyclopedia of Inorganic Chemistry

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This article presents an overview of the major sources, transport pathways, and fate of anthropogenic radionuclides in the Arctic marine environment. The dominant anthropogenic radionuclides present in Arctic seawater, sediments, and marine biota are cesium‐137 ( 137 Cs), plutonium‐239 ( 239 Pu), plutonium‐240 ( 240 Pu), technetium‐99 ( 99 Tc), and strontium‐90 ( 90 Sr). Major sources contributing to the inventory of radionuclides in the Arctic Ocean and surrounding shelf seas include atmospheric fallout, European nuclear reprocessing facilities, the Chernobyl accident, and discharges from major Arctic rivers. Anthropogenic radionuclides from these sources are supplied to and redistributed within the Arctic Ocean via atmospheric, sea ice, currents, sediment, and river transport pathways. With the exception of a few locations, e.g., the underwater nuclear test site at Chernaya Bay, sediment, seawater, and biota activity concentrations in the Arctic are today very low, posing negligible biological and human‐health risks. However, the rate of warming of the Arctic is three times faster than other parts of the globe, raising the prospect of significant reorganization of system properties and processes with consequent changes to both the sources and fate of radionuclides in the Arctic in the decades to come.

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Atmospheric transport pathways from the Bilibino nuclear power plant to Alaska

Cited by 20 publications

References 16 publications

Assessment of possible airborne impact from risk sites: methodology for probabilistic atmospheric studies

Assessment of possible airborne impact from risk sites: methodology for probabilistic atmospheric studies

Methodology for prediction and estimation of consequences of possible atmospheric releases of hazardous matter: "Kursk" submarine study

Arctic Ocean: Radionuclides

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Atmospheric transport pathways from the Bilibino nuclear power plant to Alaska

Cited by 20 publications

References 16 publications

Assessment of possible airborne impact from risk sites: methodology for probabilistic atmospheric studies

Assessment of possible airborne impact from risk sites: methodology for probabilistic atmospheric studies

Methodology for prediction and estimation of consequences of possible atmospheric releases of hazardous matter: &quot;Kursk&quot; submarine study

Arctic Ocean: Radionuclides

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Product

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Methodology for prediction and estimation of consequences of possible atmospheric releases of hazardous matter: "Kursk" submarine study