Assessment of possible airborne impact from risk sites: methodology for probabilistic atmospheric studies

Abstract

Abstract.The main purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for a multidisciplinary nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment, and to test this methodology through estimation of a nuclear risk to population in the Northern European countries in case of a severe accident at the nuclear risk sites. For assessment of the probabilistic risk and vulnerability, a combination of social-geophysical factors and probabilities are considered.The main focus of this paper is the description of methodology for evaluation of the atmospheric transport of radioactive releases from the risk site regions based on the long-term trajectory modeling. The suggested methodology is given from the probabilistic point of view. The main questions stated are: What are probabilities and times for radionuclide atmospheric transport to different neighbouring countries and territories in case of the hypothetical accidental release at the nuclear risk site? Which geographical territories or countries are at the highest risk from the hypothetical accidental releases?To answer these questions we suggest applying the following research tools for probabilistic atmospheric studies. First tool is atmospheric modelling to calculate multiyear forward trajectories originated over the sites. Second tool is statistical analyses to explore temporal and spatial structure of calculated trajectories and evaluate different probabilistic impact indicators: atmospheric transport pathways, airflow, fast transport, typical transport time, maximum possible impact zone, maximum reaching distance, etc. These indicators are applicable for further GIS-analysis and integration to estimate regional risk and vulnerability in case of accidental releases at the risk sites and for planning the emergency response and preparedness systems.

Emergence of a tracer source from air concentration measurements, a new strategy for linear assimilation

“…The atmospheric transport of tracers, especially the linear ones, is an active domain (Gallardo et al, 2002;Clerbaux et al, 2003;Baklanov and Mahura, 2004) with many investigations about the inverse problems (Bousquet et al, 2000;Rödenbeck et al, 2003). The natural interpretation of a measurement goes through its adjoint function (Marchuk, 1992;Robertson and Persson, 1993;Penenko and Baklanov, 2001).…”

Methodology for Probabilistic Atmospheric Studies using Long-Term Dispersion Modelling

“…The dispersion model results can be analysed in a similar manner as for trajectory modelling [4]. Two approaches were considered to construct probability fields for the TIAC, DD and WD patterns.…”

“…In this paper, the suggested multidisciplinary approach and illustration of dispersion modelling tool involved are described. Note that, for example, other approaches also include modelling and clustering of trajectories [4,17], specific case studies [5], and evaluation of vulnerability and consequences to radioactive deposition [3,23].…”

“…The selected approaches, tools and models, results of probabilistic analysis of atmospheric transport patterns and assessment based on a trajectory modelling approach are discussed by Baklanov and Mahura [4]. In this paper, the methodological aspects of long-term dispersion and deposition modelling, as well as statistical analysis of dispersion modelling results, are considered.…”

Comment on "Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents" by Lelieveld et al. (2012)

“…For individual reactors a probability risk assessment (PRA) is performed, which is a standard procedure in nuclear engineering; however; the results of PRA's are not available to us (i.e., not publicly available). There are published studies available that present methodologies to perform probabilistic risk assessments of contamination by selected individual nuclear reactor accidents (e.g., Baklanov and Mahura, 2004). However, 1 The INES scale was defined after the Chernobyl accident to inform the public through a standard that can be applied worldwide, agreed upon by the IAEA Parties.…”