Atlantic near‐term climate variability and the role of a resolved Gulf Stream

Siqueira, Léo; Kirtman, Ben P.

doi:10.1002/2016gl068694

Cited by 69 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 41 publications

(55 reference statements)

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“…Rather, here we have used HiGEM-DP to test the robustness of the mechanisms that lead to skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic. Although we can not say anything definitively in terms of the impact of resolution on prediction skill, evidence does support an important role for model resolution (atmosphere and ocean) in terms of capturing response of the atmosphere to oceanic anomalies (Minobe et al 2008;Bryan et al 2010;Siqueira and Kirtman 2016). In that regard, improved resolution may have had an impact on the atmospheric response in the early-1990s in HiGEM-DP hindcasts (i.e.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model

et al. 2017

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model

et al. 2017

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“…In general, these models improve on many of the shortcomings in coarser resolution, non-eddy resolving climate models, as described in a recent review (Hewitt et al 2017 and references therein). In particular, air-sea interaction in the Gulf Stream is improved in eddy-resolving coupled climate models, and hence, would be necessary to resolve also in dynamical prediction systems (Siqueira and Kirtman 2016). In the region targeted in this study, the eddies role in the mean northward ocean heat transport have shown to be negligible (e.g., Volkov et al 2008;Kirtman et al 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…High-resolution coupled climate model and their performance have been explored in several studies during the last decade (e.g., Shaffrey et al 2009;Bryan et al 2010;Delworth et al 2012;Kirtman et al 2012;Marzocchi et al 2015;Siqueira and Kirtman 2016). In general, these models improve on many of the shortcomings in coarser resolution, non-eddy resolving climate models, as described in a recent review (Hewitt et al 2017 and references therein).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A recent study shows that coarse resolution climate models (current IPCC class models, such as the 1°-model used herein) have limited ability to capture decadal variability that are associated with finer scale ocean dynamics, such as ocean fronts and eddies in the Gulf Stream (Siqueira and Kirtman 2016). Hence, the study underlines that skillful climate predictions need models that can realistically represent the Gulf Stream and the associated air-sea interaction, which fundamentally change its character in eddy-resolving models (e.g., Bryan et al 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Variability along the Atlantic water pathway in the forced Norwegian Earth System Model

et al. 2018

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The growing attention on mechanisms that can provide predictability on interannual-to-decadal time scales, makes it necessary to identify how well climate models represent such mechanisms. In this study we use a high (0.25° horizontal grid) and a medium (1°) resolution version of a forced global ocean-sea ice model, utilising the Norwegian Earth System Model, to assess the impact of increased ocean resolution. Our target is the simulation of temperature and salinity anomalies along the pathway of warm Atlantic water in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas. Although the high resolution version has larger biases in general at the ocean surface, the poleward propagation of thermohaline anomalies is better resolved in this version, i.e., the time for an anomaly to travel northward is more similar to observation based estimates. The extent of these anomalies can be rather large in both model versions, as also seen in observations, e.g., stretching from Scotland to northern Norway. The easternmost branch into the Nordic and Barents Seas, carrying warm Atlantic water, is also improved by higher resolution, both in terms of mean heat transport and variability in thermohaline properties. A more detailed assessment of the link between the North Atlantic Ocean circulation and the thermohaline anomalies at the entrance of the Nordic Seas reveals that the high resolution is more consistent with mechanisms that are previously published. This suggests better dynamics and variability in the subpolar region and the Nordic Seas in the high resolution compared to the medium resolution. This is most likely due a better representation of the mean circulation in the studied region when using higher resolution. As the poleward propagation of ocean heat anomalies is considered to be a key source of climate predictability, we recommend that similar methodology presented herein should be performed on coupled climate models that are used for climate prediction.

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“…Thus, there are many outstanding questions regarding the nature of underlying mechanisms at high resolution, how much of the knowledge gained through low-resolution studies will carry over, and whether North Atlantic predictability will be sensitive to resolution. To our knowledge, only one study has systematically assessed the change in decadal prediction skill associated with horizontal resolution [130•], and only one so far has looked at decadal predictability with an eddying ocean model [179]; more will undoubtedly follow.…”

Section: Towards Improved Model Fidelitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability

Yeager

Robson

2017

Curr Clim Change Rep

143

122

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Purpose of Review Recent Atlantic climate prediction studies are an exciting new contribution to an extensive body of research on Atlantic decadal variability and predictability that has long emphasized the unique role of the Atlantic Ocean in modulating the surface climate. We present a survey of the foundations and frontiers in our understanding of Atlantic variability mechanisms, the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and our present capacity for putting that understanding into practice in actual climate prediction systems. Recent Findings The AMOC-or more precisely, the buoyancy-forced thermohaline circulation (THC) that encompasses both overturning and gyre circulations-appears to underpin decadal timescale prediction skill in the subpolar North Atlantic in retrospective forecasts. Skill in predicting more wide-ranging climate variations, including those over land, is more limited, but there are indications this could improve with more advanced models. Summary Preliminary successes in the field of initialized Atlantic climate prediction confirm the climate relevance of low-frequency Atlantic Ocean dynamics and suggest that useful decadal climate prediction is a realizable goal.

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Atlantic near‐term climate variability and the role of a resolved Gulf Stream

Cited by 69 publications

References 41 publications

Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model

Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model

Variability along the Atlantic water pathway in the forced Norwegian Earth System Model

Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability

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