Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model

Robson, Jon; Polo, Irene; Hodson, Daniel L. R.; Stevens, David P.; Shaffrey, Len

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3649-2

Cited by 41 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…Recently, Hermanson et al (2014) and Robson et al (2016Robson et al ( , 2017 analyzed the outputs of coupled climate models and identified a new cooling and freshening period from the mid-2000s. Their results coincide with observations: Johnson et al (2016) documented an SPNA region cooler in 2014 than in 1993-2014 climatology, and this cooling intensified in 2015 and 2016 Loder, 2016, 2017).…”

Section: Along With a Schematic View Of The Upper Intermediate And mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As shown by Robson et al (2016), the SPNA started a new long-term cooling period since the mid-2000s. By analyzing the outputs of coupled climate models, Robson et al (2017) Jan 2013 argued that this new cooling period is led by the reduced ocean heat transport convergence resulting from a long-term slowdown of the AMOC. Within this long-term cooling period, we will focus hereafter on the pronounced heat content drop that happened between 2013 and 2014.…”

Section: Negative Anomalies Of θ and S In Surface Intermediate Layersmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The GEOVIDE cruise in May–June 2014 reveals an intense Meridional Overturning Circulation over a cold and fresh subpolar North Atlantic

et al. 2017

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Abstract. The GEOVIDE cruise was carried out in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) along the OVIDE section and across the Labrador Sea in May-June 2014. It was planned to clarify the distribution of the trace elements and their isotopes in the SPNA as part of the GEOTRACES international program. This paper focuses on the state of the circulation and distribution of thermohaline properties during the cruise. In terms of circulation, the comparison with the 2002-2012 mean state shows a more intense Irminger Current and also a weaker North Atlantic Current, with a transfer of volume transport from its northern to its central branch. However, those anomalies are compatible with the variability already observed along the OVIDE section in the 2000s. In terms of properties, the surface waters of the eastern SPNA were much colder and fresher than the averages over 2002-2012. In spite of negative temperature anomalies in the surface waters, the heat transport across the OVIDE section estimated at 0.56 ± 0.06 PW was the largest measured since 2002. This relatively large value is related to the relatively strong Meridional Overturning Circulation measured across the OVIDE section during GEOVIDE (18.7 ± 3.0 Sv). By analyzing the air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes over the eastern SPNA in relation to the heat and freshwater content changes observed during 2013 and 2014, we concluded that on a short timescale these changes were mainly driven by air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes rather than by ocean circulation.

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Section: Along With a Schematic View Of The Upper Intermediate And mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Negative Anomalies Of θ and S In Surface Intermediate Layersmentioning

confidence: 99%

The GEOVIDE cruise in May–June 2014 reveals an intense Meridional Overturning Circulation over a cold and fresh subpolar North Atlantic

et al. 2017

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“…At the same time the deep water formation that takes place in the North Atlantic, renders it a critical region for changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC; Hátún et al, 2005). The North Atlantic is a region where skillful predictions of up to a decade can be obtained, namely, in the NASPG as seen in previous studies using various different decadal prediction systems/setups (e.g., Brune et al, 2018;Matei et al, 2012;Polkova et al, 2015;Robson et al, 2018;Smith et al, 2010). However, as indicated by Barrier et al (2015, and references therein) using the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) system, the prediction skill in the NASPG on decadal time scales is high in the western part of the gyre and low in the eastern part and thus the spatial patterns need to be considered.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

North Atlantic Sub‐Polar Gyre Climate Index: A New Approach

Biri

Klein

2019

JGR Oceans

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As decadal predictions become operational, the need to use, understand, and extract information from them becomes essential. A climate index is a simple diagnostic quantity that can be used to characterize integral aspects of a geophysical system such as circulation patterns, and thus can be used to evaluate decadal forecasts. One of the most studied and well documented regions of the World Ocean is the North Atlantic. The North Atlantic subpolar gyre is an important region for the modulation of European climate and where skillful predictions of up to a decade can be obtained. Ocean re‐analysis (ORA‐S4) data from 1959 to 2017 are used to introduce a new methodology to compute a climate index of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre that captures both the variability in its strength and shape, the latter was to our knowledge never investigated previously as part of the variability of the gyre on interannual to decadal time scales. The methodology reveals two states of the gyre (before and after 2000), the former is mainly driven by temperature and the latter by a combination of mechanisms that interact to sustain a relatively stable subpolar gyre in terms of strength.

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“…The North Atlantic subpolar gyre region is one of the most predictable marine regions worldwide (Matei et al., ; Meehl et al., ), and therefore opens the door to forecasting this distribution. In particular, the switch from one marine climatic regime to another could be a key starting point: modelling studies have shown the ability to retrospectively predict the mid‐1990s contraction of the SPG (Msadek et al., ; Wouters, Hazeleger, Drijfhout, van Oldenborgh, & Guemas, ), and the associated increase in the upper 500 m heat content up to 5 years in advance (Robson, Polo, Hodson, Stevens, & Shaffrey, ). Consequently, the onset of warmer and more saline conditions in the spawning region of blue whiting and an expanded spawning distribution of this species could potentially be predicted.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oceanographic variability shapes the spawning distribution of blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou)

Miesner

Payne

2018

Fisheries Oceanography

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The spawning distribution of blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) has varied considerably between years, but quantitative understanding of the processes driving this change is lacking. Using 55 years of larval‐observations from the wide‐ranging Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, we show that changes in the spawning distribution of blue whiting are associated with variations in the marine environment and particularly salinity. We first corroborated previously reported associations between variations in the spawning distribution and environmental regimes in the spawning region based on space‐time interpolation models. We then applied species distribution models to quantify the linkage between the environment and the distribution of blue whiting larvae and verified these model results against independent fisheries and scientific survey data. Models incorporating salinity in the spawning region gave the best agreement with data, with observations of larvae in the CPR being limited to a window of salinities between 35.3 and 35.5. Changes in the area of suitable spawning habitat (estimated here to be up to 2.5 times) can therefore be understood as arising from the spread of saline subtropical water masses throughout the spawning region due to a weak North Atlantic subpolar gyre. We postulate that blue whiting actively select optimum oceanographic conditions to deliver their eggs to enhance their offsprings likelihood of survival and thereby their fitness. The knowledge derived here, together with the high predictability of salinity at depth in the North‐East Atlantic, can potentially form the basis for forecasting the spawning distribution of this species.

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Decadal prediction of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model

Abstract: These results support an important role for the ocean in driving past changes in the North Atlantic region, and suggest that these changes were predictable.

Cited by 41 publications

References 68 publications

The GEOVIDE cruise in May–June 2014 reveals an intense Meridional Overturning Circulation over a cold and fresh subpolar North Atlantic

The GEOVIDE cruise in May–June 2014 reveals an intense Meridional Overturning Circulation over a cold and fresh subpolar North Atlantic

North Atlantic Sub‐Polar Gyre Climate Index: A New Approach

Oceanographic variability shapes the spawning distribution of blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou)

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