Atlantic Basin Hurricanes: Indices of Climatic Changes

Landsea, Christopher W.; Pielke, Roger A.; Mestas-Nuñez, Alberto M.; Knaff, John A.

doi:10.1007/978-94-015-9265-9_9

Cited by 158 publications

(162 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…The Poisson distribution has been utilized extensively for similar types of problems: to assess trends in hurricane counts, number of river basin floods, etc. (Ashkar and Rouselle, 1987;Landsea et al, 1999;Jagger and Elsner, 2012). In this study, the Chi-square test was applied to the data first in order to determine whether they followed a Poisson distribution: nearly all the indices based on humidex, wind chill (to a lesser extent), and heavy precipitation events followed a Poisson distribution (line 1 in Tables 3 and 4).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed Trends in Severe Weather Conditions Based on Humidex, Wind Chill, and Heavy Rainfall Events in Canada for 1953–2012

et al. 2015

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Observed trends in severe weather conditions based on public alert statements issued by Environment Canada are examined for Canada. Changes in extreme heat and extreme cold events represented by various humidex and wind chill indices are analyzed for 1953-2012 at 126 climatological stations. Changes in heavy rainfall events based on rainfall amounts provided by tipping bucket rainfall gauges are analyzed for 1960-2012 at 285 stations. The results show that extreme heat events, defined as days with at least one hourly humidex value above 30, have increased significantly at more than 36% of the stations, most of which are located south of 55°N; days with nighttime hourly humidex values remaining above 20 have increased significantly at more than 52% of the stations, most of which are located south of 50°N. Extreme cold events represented by days with at least one hourly wind chill value below −30 have decreased significantly at more than 76% of the stations across the country. No consistent changes were found in heavy rainfall events. Because city residents are very vulnerable to severe weather events, detailed results on changes in extreme heat, extreme cold, and heavy rainfall events are also provided for ten urban centres.RÉSUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] Nous examinons les tendances observées de conditions météorologiques extrêmes, selon les alertes destinées au public qu'émet Environnement Canada, et ce, en analysant pour la période allant de 1953 à 2012, les événements de chaleur ou de froid extrêmes, à l'aide des indices humidex et de refroidissement éolien à 126 stations climatologiques. Nous étudions l'évolution des cas de pluie abondante en comparant les accumulations de précipitations qu'ont enregistrées les pluviomètres à auget, à 285 stations, de 1960 à 2012. Les résultats montrent que les cas de chaleur extrême, définis comme étant les jours où au moins une valeur horaire de l'humidex est supérieure à 30, ont augmenté de façon significative à plus de 36% des stations, dont la plupart se situent au sud de 55°N. Le nombre de nuits où l'humidex horaire demeure supérieur à 20 a augmenté significativement à plus de 52% des stations, dont la plupart se trouvent au sud de 50°N. Les cas de froid extrême, représentés par les jours où au moins une valeur horaire du refroidissement éolien descend sous −30, ont diminué significativement à plus de 76% des stations situées partout au pays. Nous n'avons détecté aucun changement cohérent dans les cas de pluie abondante. Comme les citadins demeurent très vulnérables aux conditions météorologiques extrêmes, nous présentons des résultats détaillés sur la tendance des occurrences de chaleur et de froid extrêmes, ainsi que de pluie abondante, pour dix centres urbains.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observed Trends in Severe Weather Conditions Based on Humidex, Wind Chill, and Heavy Rainfall Events in Canada for 1953–2012

et al. 2015

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“…Landsea (2005) has demonstrated that the Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity had similar heightened hurricane amounts in the middle portion of the 20th century in comparison to that observed since 1995. Landsea et al (1999) found that only weak linear trends can be ascribed to hurricane activity in the north Atlantic. Chan and Liu (2004) point out that average typhoon activity had no significant relationship with sea surface temperature in the WNP.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability in Intense Tropical Cyclone Days in the Western North Pacific

Kamahori¹,

Yamazaki²,

Mannoji

et al. 2006

SOLA

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Variability in tropical cyclone (TC) days in the western North Pacific (WNP) since the late 1970s is investigated based on two datasets. As an overall behavior, the intense TC days have increased for the last 30 years from both the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) dataset and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) dataset. Both datasets show that TC days with an intensity of Saffir-Simpson category 2 or higher have increased by 15 30% over the past 30 years. In terms of the detailed behavior of this increase in intense TC days, the contribution obtained from the JMA dataset is different from that of the JTWC. The JMA dataset reveals that the increase in moderately intense TC days contributes to the overall increase in intense TC days, while the JTWC dataset shows that the increase in extremely intense TC days has the dominant contribution. The difference between the two datasets becomes significant after 1987 when aircraft reconnaissance by the US Air Force was deactivated. The difference between the assessed contributions is due to different implementations of the Dvorak technique, the basis for TC intensity estimation at the JMA and the JTWC after the deactivation of aircraft reconnaissance.

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“…T ii ðy;nÞ ¼ − t i ðy;nÞ þ ∑ j>i T ij ðy;nÞ ; [7] where t is the jump intensity for a hurricane that jumps directly to the absorbing state (i.e., destroys all remaining turbines): t i ðy;nÞ ¼ λ ∑ n−y−1 m¼0 beta-binomialðn;n − m; α B ;β B Þ: [8] The off-diagonal elements of T do not sum to 1 along a row because some hurricanes do not cause a state transition (i.e., some hurricanes do not buckle any turbine towers).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Pielke, et al (6) note pronounced differences in the total hurricane damages (normalized to 2005) occurring each decade. Previous research has shown strong associations between North Atlantic hurricane activity and atmosphere-ocean variability on different time scales, including the multidecadal (7,8). Atlantic hurricane data show that hurricane seasons with very high activity levels occur with some regularity; for instance, since 1950, there have been 25 y with three or more intense hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 3 or higher).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%