Asymmetric Price Transmission of Hardwood Lumber Imported by China after Imposition of the Comprehensive Commercial Logging Ban in All Natural Forests

Yang, Lihua; Yin, Z.; Wang, Fang

doi:10.3390/f11020200

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…In the years 2000-2005, the beech roundwood market in Europe was unstable, with price increases attributable to roundwood and sawtimber exports to Asia [81]. In particular, the study period was characterized by growing exports to China, especially of hardwood [61]. In the years 2005-2008, the Central European market revealed an upward trend in timber prices with beech roundwood prices peaking at the height of economic prosperity in 2007 and 2008.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In 2014, Chinese imports of hardwood (logs and sawn) reached 29.8 million m 3 (USD 10.6 billion), while their imports of hardwood sawtimber amounted to USD 4.3 billion. After the 2015 imposition of a commercial logging ban in all Chinese natural forests, China's sawn hardwood imports increased by 16.38% (in volume) in 2016 and 10,61% in 2017 [61]. Germany and Austria are the second and third largest roundwood importers in the world, respectively.…”

Section: Beech Growing Stock and Roundwood Trade In Europementioning

confidence: 99%

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The Dynamics of Beech Roundwood Prices in Selected Central European Markets

Kożuch

Banaś

2020

Forests

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The European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) is the most prevalent deciduous tree species in Central Europe. The implementation of sustainable, close-to-nature silvicultural practices increased the percentage share of beech in forest species composition, raising the economic significance of beech roundwood, especially in terms of revenues from timber sales. The elucidation of roundwood price mechanisms as well as long-term equilibrium relations between international markets may be helpful in calculating the profitability of beech roundwood production. The study material consists of quarterly time series of beech roundwood prices from Austria, Czechia, Germany, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia in the years 2005–2018. The price time series were described with a multiplicative model incorporating seasonal, cyclical, and irregular, as well as long-term trend components. The time series were decomposed using the Census X11 method. Stationarity was tested by means of the augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF) and the Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin test (KPSS). Cointegration was assessed using the Johansen and Engle–Granger methods. From 2005–2018, the highest mean beech roundwood prices were found for Austria (77.5 € m−3) and Germany, and the lowest for Poland and Slovakia. Roundwood prices were badly affected by the 2008/2009 financial crisis, which caused an approx. 27% decline. The prices of large-diameter beech logs exhibited seasonal fluctuations, typically reaching a maximum in Q1 and a minimum in Q3. The amplitude of those fluctuations was the highest in Slovenia in 2005 (10.1%), while in Czechia and Germany, seasonal effects increased over the period of study. The lowest seasonality was found in Slovakia and Austria (in the latter country it was not statistically significant). On an annual scale, cyclical changes generally accounted for the largest proportion of price variation, and were particularly pronounced in Poland (78.9%), Slovakia (78.6%), and Austria (69.2%). On the other hand, seasonal effects were predominant in the Slovenian (40.6%), German (34.1%), and Czech (33.3%) markets. In countries with price series of type I(0), simple correlation between stationary beech roundwood prices is positive and the strongest between Czechia–Poland and Czechia–Austria; on the other hand they are the weakest in the German market. In Slovakia and Slovenia with nonstationary price series, both Johansen’s and Engle-Granger’s cointegration tests indicated the absence of a long-term equilibrium between the analyzed beech timber markets. Results revealed integration between the prices of large-diameter beech logs in Czechia, Austria, and Poland. It should be mentioned that in this study, the time series of price used are rather short for long time cointegration analysis, which might prevent the proper detection of cointegration between all analyzed countries.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Beech Growing Stock and Roundwood Trade In Europementioning

confidence: 99%

The Dynamics of Beech Roundwood Prices in Selected Central European Markets

Kożuch

Banaś

2020

Forests

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“…China's import value of hardwood lumber reached 40.61% of the global hardwood lumber trade by 2018, and the corresponding proportion of China's import volume of hardwood lumber rose to 45.42%. The structural imbalance between domestic supply and demand of hardwood lumber in China is the main reason for the growth of China's hardwood lumber imports [5,6]. The rapid development of the real estate market and wooden furniture industry in China has driven the growth of China's demand for high-grade hardwood lumber [7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Price Volatility Transmission in China’s Hardwood Lumber Imports

Wang

Yin

Wang

2021

Forests

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Hardwood lumber is the principal part of the global hardwood timber trade. China has become the largest importer of hardwood lumber in the world. However, China’s hardwood lumber imports are affected by price volatility. Thus, we investigated the price volatility transmission of China’s hardwood lumber imports. We aimed to detect the source, path, and intensity of the volatility transmission in China’s hardwood lumber imports, and reveal the intrinsic interactions between price volatilities. To date, there is little research on the price fluctuations of forest products. This paper provides an empirical analysis on the volatility transmission in China’s forest product imports. We selected four types of major hardwood lumber imports to China; that is, teak (Tectona grandis L.F.), merbau (Merbau), sapele (Entandrophragma), and casla (Terminalia spp.) (The Latin names of tree species are given in parentheses), and used their daily prices from 4 August 2010 to 15 April 2020. The Baba–Engle–Kraft–Kroner (BEKK) multivariate models and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) models were employed. The empirical results indicate that there is an intrinsic relationship between the price fluctuations in China’s hardwood lumber imports. The volatility transmission chain originates from casla; it is transmitted along the casla→sapele→merbau→teak pathway. The direction of transmission is from lower prices to higher prices. The dynamic conditional correlation of each link in the chain does not exhibit any particular time trend. This suggests that volatility transmission is a crucial price mechanism in China’s hardwood lumber imports. Our findings have important policy implications for hedging timber price risks and designing timber trade policies.

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The Impact of Changes in Log Import Price from the Logging Ban on the Market Price of Timber Products

Guan

Zhang

2022

Journal of Sustainable Forestry

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Asymmetric Price Transmission of Hardwood Lumber Imported by China after Imposition of the Comprehensive Commercial Logging Ban in All Natural Forests

Cited by 4 publications

References 39 publications

The Dynamics of Beech Roundwood Prices in Selected Central European Markets

The Dynamics of Beech Roundwood Prices in Selected Central European Markets

Price Volatility Transmission in China’s Hardwood Lumber Imports

The Impact of Changes in Log Import Price from the Logging Ban on the Market Price of Timber Products

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