Association between tobacco prices and smoking onset: evidence from the TCP India Survey

Abstract

BackgroundTobacco use is prevalent among youth and adults in India. However, direct evidence on how increasing taxes or prices affect tobacco use onset is scarce.ObjectiveTo analyse the associations between cigarette and bidi prices and smoking onset in India, and how these associations differ by socioeconomic status.MethodologyThe Wave 1 of the Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation India Survey by the International Tobacco Control Project contains information on the age at smoking onset for cigarettes and bidis. Using this information, data were expanded to a yearly pseudo-panel dataset that tracked respondents at risk of smoking onset from 1998 to 2011. The associations between bidi prices and bidi smoking onset, between cigarette prices and cigarette smoking onset, and between bidi and cigarette prices and any smoking onset were examined using a discrete-time hazard model with a logit link function. Stratified analyses were conducted to examine the difference in these associations by rural versus urban division.ResultsWe found that higher bidi prices were significantly associated with a lowered hazard of bidi smoking onset (OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.51). Higher cigarette prices were significantly (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.92) associated with a lowered hazard of cigarette smoking onset among urban residents, but this association was non-significant when SEs were clustered at the state level. In addition, the association between increasing bidis prices and lowered hazards of bidi smoking onset was greater for urban residents than for rural ones (p<0.01).ConclusionsUnder the new regime of a central goods and service system, policymakers may need to raise the prices of tobacco products sufficiently to curb smoking onset.

Impact of tobacco price and taxation on affordability and consumption of tobacco products in the South-East Asia Region: A systematic review

“…Five studies conducted in India 32 - 34 , 40 , 41 , two in Bangladesh 35 , 37 and one each in Nepal 42 , Thailand 43 , Sri Lanka 44 , Myanmar 39 , and Indonesia 38 , reported an inverse association between price and consumption of tobacco products ( Table 3 and Supplementary file Table S10). Of the 5 studies in India, two showed an inverse association between price and consumption exclusively for smoking tobacco (cigarettes and bidis) 40 , 41 , one exclusively for smokeless tobacco 34 , while the remaining two for both smoking and smokeless tobacco products 32 , 33 . The price elasticity of smokeless tobacco was between -0.09 and -0.87 (-0.0934, -0.5932, and -0.8733) while that for smoking tobacco was between -0.27 and -0.92; -0.92 33 and -0.27 32 for bidis, and -0.38 33 to -0.41 32 for cigarettes.…”

“…Three studies reported the change in consumption of smokeless tobacco due to a change in smoked tobacco prices (cross price elasticity) 34 , 35 , 46 . Some studies also reported changes in cigarette prices leading to a significant shift to other tobacco product consumption 35 , 36 , 40 ; and vice-versa 33 , 49 . Three studies reported both the change in consumption and cross price elasticity of tobacco products in their respective findings 32 , 40 , 49 .…”

“…Some studies also reported changes in cigarette prices leading to a significant shift to other tobacco product consumption 35 , 36 , 40 ; and vice-versa 33 , 49 . Three studies reported both the change in consumption and cross price elasticity of tobacco products in their respective findings 32 , 40 , 49 . A study conducted in Thailand, demonstrated that an increase in the price of manufactured cigarettes increased the likelihood of consumption of hand-rolled cigarettes (RYO) and vice-versa 36 .…”

The Progression of the Tobacco Epidemic in India on the National and Regional Levels, 1998-2016

“…These taxes are well below the tax rates on tobacco products recommended by the World Bank of 65-80% of the retail price 49 . In 2011 in India, the price of a single cigarette was US$0.026, whereas the price of a single bidi was US$0.0033 50 . Similarly, in 2016, retail price per pack of most brands of smokeless tobacco was US$0.10 36 .…”

Economics of tobacco control (part 3): evidence from the ITC Project

“…Shang et al 15 consider the impact of price changes on smoking initiation, for both cigarettes and bidis, in four states in India. Using a single wave of data, they create a pseudopanel dataset from respondents’ reported age at smoking onset and apply a discrete-time hazard (survival) model.…”