Association between Global Monkeypox Cases and Meteorological Factors

Abstract

The emergence of an outbreak of Monkeypox disease (MPXD) is caused by a contagious zoonotic Monkeypox virus (MPXV) that has spread globally. Yet, there is no study investigating the effect of climatic changes on MPXV transmission. Thus, studies on the changing epidemiology, evolving nature of the virus, and ecological niche are highly paramount. Determination of the role of potential meteorological drivers including temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, dew point, wind speed, and surface pressure is beneficial to understand the MPXD outbreak. This study examines the changes in MPXV cases over time while assessing the meteorological characteristics that could impact these disparities from the onset of the global outbreak. To conduct this data-based research, several well-accepted statistical techniques including Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Automatic forecasting time-series model (Prophet), and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Explanatory Variables (ARIMAX) were applied to delineate the correlation of the meteorological factors on global daily Monkeypox cases. Data on MPXV cases including affected countries spanning from May 6, 2022, to November 9, 2022, from global databases and meteorological data were used to evaluate the developed models. According to the ARIMAX model, the results showed that temperature, relative humidity, and surface pressure have a positive impact [(51.56, 95% confidence interval (CI): −274.55 to 377.68), (17.32, 95% CI: −83.71 to 118.35) and (23.42, 95% CI: −9.90 to 56.75), respectively] on MPXV cases. In addition, dew/frost point, precipitation, and wind speed show a significant negative impact on MPXD cases. The Prophet model showed a significant correlation with rising MPXD cases, although the trend predicts peak values while the overall trend increases. This underscores the importance of immediate and appropriate preventive measures (timely preparedness and proactive control strategies) with utmost priority against MPXD including awareness-raising programs, the discovery, and formulation of effective vaccine candidate(s), prophylaxis and therapeutic regimes, and management strategies.

An overview on Monkeypox, Current Paradigms and Advances in its Vaccination, Treatment and Clinical Management: Trends, Scope, Promise and Challenges

“…Brincidofovir is an antiviral medication for treating poxviruses that has been licensed by the European Medicines Agency and the FDA. 69 Prairie dogs with chronic MPX infection exhibited a moderate survival benefit from this medication. In 2018, the first individuals in the United Kingdom were diagnosed with MPX, however neither brincidofovir nor tecovirimat were approved for use in treating the disease.…”

A bibliometric study on Marburg virus research with prevention and control strategies

“…From the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic situation, everyone should understand the lesson of One Health, which is that three major things (environment, animals, and humans) are involved in the prevention and inspection of zoonotic diseases such as MVD (59-62). Swift, multidisciplinary action is required to incorporate and inspect such incidences of MVD before an unwanted quick spread of MARV occurs in other regions and countries amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and current global health concern that is the burgeoning cases of monkeypox (63,64).…”

“…Among them, the cAd3 vaccine, also known as chimpanzee adenovirus serotype 3 vectors, encoded with wild-type GP from MARV, is the subject of a Phase 1 clinical trial for human use (73). To maintain the patient's electrolytes, fluids, oxygen status, and blood pressure, as well as to replace lost blood and clotting factors, and treatment for any complicating infections, supportive hospital therapy should be utilized (63,64,74).…”

Old Enemy with a New Face: Re-emerging Monkeypox Disease – An Update

“…MPXV is an enveloped, completed by lipoprotein membrane, ds DNA virus with a ~190 kb genome, and has enclosed pleomorphic dumbbell-shaped core of 140 to 260 nm diameter, giving a brick-shaped virion (Figure 2A). 19 This genome has closed hairpins on both ends and several open reading frames (ORF) that cover more than 180 nucleotide sizes. There is a highly conserved central coding region of approximately 56 to 120 kb that is flanked by variable regions and terminal repeats, these containing four additional ORFs that are mainly involved in immunomodulation for host range determination and pathogenicity.…”

“…The mortality rate of this self-curable disease is typically 1 to 11%. 19 Young children are mostly affected by this disease who are multi-sexual, bi-sexual, and without smallpox vaccination. Newly found old monkeypox disease has changed its biological nature due to climate, patient immunity, smallpox vaccination, and other unknown reasons.…”