Assessment of the State of Ukraine’s National Debt and Directions of its Optimizatio

Stoiko, O. Y.; Shubenko, I.

doi:10.32983/2222-0712-2021-1-123-133

Cited by 7 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…The period of 2017-2019 resulted in positive trends for Ukraine's debt indices (Stoiko & Shubenko, 2021). However, its values for 2020-2021 show an escalation in debt risks prompted by the decline of the macroeconomic situation, an upswing in the total amount of public debt, and considerable debt repayments.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Ukraine’s external debt burden under geopolitical instability

Razinkova,

Nebaba,

Korneyev

et al. 2023

Public and Municipal Finance

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Several specific features and circumstances can characterize Ukraine’s policy of external public debt management, and the results are not always unambiguous. The study aims to assess the effect of external public debt on Ukraine’s economy from 2014 to 2022, a period that includes the Crimea annexation, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the beginning of the open Russian military aggression. To analyze the contemporary state of public debt and assess the degree of external debt burden’s impact on the country’s economy, a factor analysis technique known as the principal components method was used. Via the STATISTICA.12 software, it was substantiated that the debt situation worsens with the growth of debt burden and solvency indicators as their values approach the thresholds. The application of the Kaiser criterion allowed the selection of the most influential indicators (principal components) for assessing the external debt burden. The eigenvalue of the first component (inflation rate) is 4.48, and it explains 50% of the variance; the second component (production of export-oriented goods) has an eigenvalue of 2.43, explaining 27% of the variance; the third component (government spending on military purposes) has an eigenvalue of 1.24, and it explains 14% of the variance.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Ukraine’s external debt burden under geopolitical instability

Razinkova,

Nebaba,

Korneyev

et al. 2023

Public and Municipal Finance

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Monitoring of the Public Debt of Ukraine Under the Conditions of Marital State

Ткачук,

Стащук

2024

Ekon. čas. Volins. nac. unìv. ìm. Lesì Ukraïnki

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Abstract. Public debt exists as an economic and legal phenomenon in most countries of the world, as a rule, it is formed as a result of financing the deficit of the national budget. For countries with effective public debt management institutions, it is an engine of rapid economic development. In many countries, the creation of public debt is associated with the government's attempts to improve the socio-economic conditions of people's lives by modernizing infrastructure, developing education, science, health care, improving social welfare, etc. Public borrowing is a source of investment, a means of reducing the negative impact of external factors, and a fairly effective incentive that helps accelerate the growth of the country's economic potential. Thanks to borrowing, our country received additional resources to meet public needs, overcome а certain technological lag in national development, and outline prospects for economic growth. But on the other hand, such borrowings can become a debt burden, since the economic situation in the country does not allow for effective repayment of debts, which in turn only deepens the country's debt problem. Thus, the main problem of public borrowing, in our opinion, is a real threat of reliance on the state and creditors, which has a stable upward trend. In the conditions of war, national obligations, mainly to foreign countries, are growing rapidly. Inefficient management of public debt can lead to economic instability in countries. In our opinion, an increase in external public debt can lead to a decrease in the state authority of Ukraine in the international economic arena and cause mistrust and doubts about the state's ability to ensure the timely fulfillment of its financial obligations.

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Ukraine’s debt security in the context of military conflict

Pavlenko

2023

Pravo bezpeka

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In the context of military conflict, security issues come to the fore in all spheres of state life. As the combat capability of the army largely depends on the financing of its needs, the problem of finding additional financial resources is becoming more acute. However, the economy is currently unable to cope with this task due to the destruction of the material and technical base and logistics routes, military mobilisation of some employees, the outflow of labour resources abroad and other factors resulting from the armed aggression. Therefore, the search for ways to improve debt security in the context of a military conflict is of utmost importance. The purpose of the article is to identify the ways to increase the level of debt security of Ukraine's economy. To achieve this goal, the state, dynamics and structure of public and publicly guaranteed debt for 2013–2022 have been analysed. It has been established that over the past ten years, the volume of total public debt has been steadily increasing. This was mainly due to an increase in such components as direct public and external debt. The fastest growth in total public and publicly guaranteed debt was in the years of military operations. The analysis of the state debt security indicators has shown a deterioration in the state of debt security and the approach of a debt crisis. Due to the significant complication of the conditions in which Ukraine's economy has been operating over the past year, it is proposed to revise the Medium-Term Public Debt Management Strategy for 2021–2024 to define new targets and approaches in this area. Currently, the Ministry of Finance's main task is to restructure domestic and external debt. In order to increase the level of debt security of Ukraine, it has been proposed to initiate the development of an international protocol for debt cancellation for countries affected by armed aggression. In the course of domestic debt restructuring, it has been suggested that the yield on domestic government bonds should be reduced, but this can only be done if monetary policy is changed.

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Assessment of the State of Ukraine’s National Debt and Directions of its Optimizatio

Cited by 7 publications

References 0 publications

Assessment of Ukraine’s external debt burden under geopolitical instability

Assessment of Ukraine’s external debt burden under geopolitical instability

Monitoring of the Public Debt of Ukraine Under the Conditions of Marital State

Ukraine’s debt security in the context of military conflict

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