Assessment of the relationship of government spending on social assistance programs with Brazilian macroeconomic variables

Abstract

Please cite this article as: V. de Senna, A.M. Souza, Assesment of the relationship of government spending on social assistance programs with Brazilian macroeconomic variables, Physica A (2016), http://dx. AbstractSince the 1988 Federal Constitution social assistance has become a duty of the State and a right to everyone, guaranteeing the population a dignified life. To ensure these rights federal government has created programs that can supply the main needs of people in extreme poverty. Among the programs that provide social assistance to the population, the best known are the "Bolsa Família" Program -PBF and the Continuous Cash BenefitContinuous Cash Benefit -BPC. This research main purpose is to analyze the relationship between the main macroeconomic variables and the Federal government spending on social welfare policy in the period between from January 2004 to August 2014. The used methodologies are the Vector auto regression model -VAR and Error Correction Vector -VEC. The conclusions, was that there is a meaningful relationships between macroeconomic variables and social assistance programs. This indicates that if the government takes a more abrupt resolution in change the existing programs it will result in fluctuations in the main macroeconomic variables interfering with the stability of Brazilian domestic economy up to twelve months.

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