Assessment of the proportion of under‐reporting during the 2007 equine influenza outbreak in New South Wales, Australia

Dhand, Navneet K.; Sergeant, E.

doi:10.1111/j.1751-0813.2011.00754.x

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Despite an overall low level of under‐reporting of 1.2% during the outbreak and <1% in south Sydney, higher levels occurred in certain areas including northern NSW (Dhand and Sergeant, 2011). Under‐reporting associated with distrust may have occurred in this area because of negative experiences.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

From the Horse’s Mouth: Perceptions of the Management of the 2007 Equine Influenza Outbreak in Australia

Schemann

Firestone

Taylor

et al. 2012

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases

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SummaryIn August 2007, Australia experienced its first-ever outbreak of equine influenza, a highly infectious respiratory disease of horses. Although the outbreak spread over a large geographic area it was eradicated within five months following a substantial disease control effort led by Federal and State animal health authorities. Despite its timely control, this large-scale outbreak caused severe impacts on horse owners and industry participants.This study aimed to describe the perceptions of horse owners and managers, impacted by outbreak control measures, regarding the State government's animal health authority outbreak management. Participants were interviewed face-to-face. Factors associated with ordinal ratings of perception ('well managed', 'adequately managed', and 'poorly managed') were identified using ordinal logistic regression. Factors significantly associated with a reduced likelihood of 'well managed' outbreak response ratings, adjusted for age and gender, were being involved in horse competitions/sporting events (OR=0.48; 95% CI: 0.25-0.91), managing a horse stud (OR=0.09; 95% CI: 0.03-0.28) and believing another outbreak of equine influenza was highly likely in the next five years (OR=0.29; 95% CI: 0.12-0.68). Possible reasons for these ratings were further investigated using content analyses. Outbreak communications and government efficiency/support were mentioned most frequently as both strengths (30% and 28% respectively) and weaknesses (40% and 30% respectively) of the outbreak management. To promote manager-government rapport and future compliance with disease 2 control regulations, we recommend that outbreak communications and outbreak information systems be reviewed.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

From the Horse’s Mouth: Perceptions of the Management of the 2007 Equine Influenza Outbreak in Australia

Schemann

Firestone

Taylor

et al. 2012

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases

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“…We also adjusted for a number of relevant confounders of the meteorological associations we aimed to estimate: vaccination status of horses on the premises, premises size (in terms of area and number of horses), whether premises were adjacent to another premises holding horses, and local human population density. A small misclassification bias is known to be present in the equine influenza dataset, due to under-reporting of infected premises by owners either attempting to avoid movement restrictions or who failed to detect infection [72] . A previous analysis found <1% under-reporting occurred in this region, suggesting that <13 infected premises were misclassified as uninfected [72] ; we considered this bias negligible.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A small misclassification bias is known to be present in the equine influenza dataset, due to under-reporting of infected premises by owners either attempting to avoid movement restrictions or who failed to detect infection [72] . A previous analysis found <1% under-reporting occurred in this region, suggesting that <13 infected premises were misclassified as uninfected [72] ; we considered this bias negligible.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of Meteorology on the Spread of Influenza: Survival Analysis of an Equine Influenza (A/H3N8) Outbreak

et al. 2012

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The influences of relative humidity and ambient temperature on the transmission of influenza A viruses have recently been established under controlled laboratory conditions. The interplay of meteorological factors during an actual influenza epidemic is less clear, and research into the contribution of wind to epidemic spread is scarce. By applying geostatistics and survival analysis to data from a large outbreak of equine influenza (A/H3N8), we quantified the association between hazard of infection and air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and wind velocity, whilst controlling for premises-level covariates. The pattern of disease spread in space and time was described using extraction mapping and instantaneous hazard curves. Meteorological conditions at each premises location were estimated by kriging daily meteorological data and analysed as time-lagged time-varying predictors using generalised Cox regression. Meteorological covariates time-lagged by three days were strongly associated with hazard of influenza infection, corresponding closely with the incubation period of equine influenza. Hazard of equine influenza infection was higher when relative humidity was <60% and lowest on days when daily maximum air temperature was 20–25°C. Wind speeds >30 km hour−1 from the direction of nearby infected premises were associated with increased hazard of infection. Through combining detailed influenza outbreak and meteorological data, we provide empirical evidence for the underlying environmental mechanisms that influenced the local spread of an outbreak of influenza A. Our analysis supports, and extends, the findings of studies into influenza A transmission conducted under laboratory conditions. The relationships described are of direct importance for managing disease risk during influenza outbreaks in horses, and more generally, advance our understanding of the transmission of influenza A viruses under field conditions.

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“…The seroprevalence at a statewide level in NSW has been described by Dhand and Sergeant 9 and at particular locations in both NSW and QLD 10,11 . A study evaluating the level of under‐reporting of EI infection that occurred in NSW found that although the under‐reporting proportion varied regionally, overall, horse owners responsibly reported the majority of cases of disease to the authorities 12 …”

Section: Clinical Aspectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overview of the epidemiology of equine influenza in the Australian outbreak

Moloney

2011

Aust Veterinary J

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Assessment of the proportion of under‐reporting during the 2007 equine influenza outbreak in New South Wales, Australia

Cited by 6 publications

References 6 publications

From the Horse’s Mouth: Perceptions of the Management of the 2007 Equine Influenza Outbreak in Australia

From the Horse’s Mouth: Perceptions of the Management of the 2007 Equine Influenza Outbreak in Australia

The Influence of Meteorology on the Spread of Influenza: Survival Analysis of an Equine Influenza (A/H3N8) Outbreak

Overview of the epidemiology of equine influenza in the Australian outbreak

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