Assessment of the potential implications of a 1.5 °C versus higher global temperature rise for the Afobaka hydropower scheme in Suriname

Donk, Peter; Uytven, Els Van; Willems, Patrick; Taylor, Michael A.

doi:10.1007/s10113-018-1339-1

Cited by 15 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 30 publications

(11 reference statements)

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“…The GCM outputs are generally too coarse for direct application at local/point scale (typical horizontal resolution of 50 × 50 km). The outputs were therefore downscaled statistically applying the Quantile Perturbation Method (QPM) [13,30,38,48]. It is a method that generates projections which are consistent with the recurrence probability (frequency) of intensities for a specific climatic variable of interest, whereas daily or sub daily (hourly) time series are considered.…”

Section: Quantile Perturbation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The application of the QPM was supported by the "Climate Perturbation Tool" developed at KU Leuven [13,30,48].…”

Section: Quantile Perturbation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We selected a smaller ensemble of model runs for the impact assessments, which is representative of the full range of change of the original (full) ensemble. This is particularly important, as otherwise the impact assessments become very challenging, taking the amount of data involved into account, and the (computational) resources required for the impact assessments [13,26]. Initially all model runs were evaluated based on the range of change factors they produce.…”

Section: Selection Of An Optimal Ensemble Of Model Runsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although the renewable aspect of these energies is attractive, it is possible that under climate change its potential may also change. The energy sector in Suriname relies on thermal and hydropower generation, with hydropower contributing to approximately 40% of the power demand [13]. The power demand increases with an average of 6% annually, resulting in a further increasing contribution of thermal power generation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…At the other hand, extreme climate events, i.e., droughts in the recent decade, have had significant impact on the water resources in Suriname, hence hydropower capacity. Although there is no strong evidence that the recent events are related to climate change, there is a concern that hydropower may be subject to potential negative impacts of climate change in the future, i.e., extreme droughts occurring with higher frequency and greater intensity [13]. It is therefore important to develop a long term energy strategy to address both, (I) the commitments towards the COP21 agreement, and (II) to develop an energy matrix of complementary renewable energy resources, to guarantee a sustainable energy supply on the long term, with minimal thermal contribution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Statistical methodology for on-site wind resource and power potential assessment under current and future climate conditions: a case study of Suriname

2019

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The feasibility and long term sustainability of proposed projects for wind energy production strongly depend on the availability of wind resources. This availability is assessed by means of local wind speed statistics. Under climate change, the future (long term) wind resource availability is, however, highly uncertain. This research proposes a methodology for on-site wind resource assessment in future (climate change) perspective based on stochastic modeling, observed data and the latest generation of climate model results for future projections. Statistical downscaling and bias correction methods, i.e., the Quantile Perturbation Method and Quantile Matching, are applied to enable local scale assessments. It requires observed data for extended periods to facilitate climate change signal assessments and associated future projections. Two types of data sets are considered for observed data, i.e., on-site (local) measurements and reanalysis data. Two stochastic modeling approaches were adopted for the local observations data extension, i.e., a Markov and Weibull model, allowing for a sensitivity assessment. The methodology has been applied to a potential wind site in Suriname. Results reveal significant changes in wind power potential for the end of the century (2070-2100), ranging from − 27 to 89%. Analysis of the extreme conditions reveals an extended range, from − 65 to 282%.

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Section: Quantile Perturbation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The application of the QPM was supported by the "Climate Perturbation Tool" developed at KU Leuven [13,30,48].…”

Section: Quantile Perturbation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Selection Of An Optimal Ensemble Of Model Runsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Statistical methodology for on-site wind resource and power potential assessment under current and future climate conditions: a case study of Suriname

2019

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Small island developing states and 1.5 °C

Thomas

Schleußner²,

Kumar

2018

Reg Environ Change

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A Systematic Review of Methods for Investigating Climate Change Impacts on Water-Energy-Food Nexus

Gao,

Chen,

Memon

2023

Water Resour Manage

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Water, energy and food are important for human survival and sustainable development. With climate change, investigating climate change impacts on Water-Energy-Food nexus has been a topic of growing interest in recent years. However, there is a lack of a systematic review of the current state and methodologies of Water-Energy-Food nexus studies under climate change. Here, we review research articles investigating climate change impacts on Water-Food, Water-Energy and Water-Energy-Food nexus over last seven years. The existing methods and tools, spatial scales, and future climate scenarios setting in these articles are summarised and analysed. We found that the analyses methods could be divided into four categories (physics-based modelling, statistical methods, supervised learning and operation optimisation), among them, physics-based modelling accounts for the largest proportion. The reviewed studies cover a range of scales from site scale to global, with most studies focusing on the regional scale. Models used for small to middle scale are mainly related to hydrology and water resource, while large-scale modelling is based on interdisciplinary models. Future climate scenarios setting include emission scenarios and global warming scenarios based on Global Climate Models (GCMs). A number of future research challenges have been identified. These include spatial scale and resolution, internal physical mechanism, application of novel artificial intelligence models, extreme climate events, potential competition in nexus systems as well as data and model uncertainty.

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Assessment of the potential implications of a 1.5 °C versus higher global temperature rise for the Afobaka hydropower scheme in Suriname

Abstract: Assessment of the potential implications of a 1.5°C versus higher global temperature rise for the Afobaka hydropower scheme in Suriname Article Type: S.I. : Small Island and 1.5 Degrees (Thomas)

Cited by 15 publications

References 30 publications

Statistical methodology for on-site wind resource and power potential assessment under current and future climate conditions: a case study of Suriname

Statistical methodology for on-site wind resource and power potential assessment under current and future climate conditions: a case study of Suriname

Small island developing states and 1.5 °C

A Systematic Review of Methods for Investigating Climate Change Impacts on Water-Energy-Food Nexus

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