Statistical methodology for on-site wind resource and power potential assessment under current and future climate conditions: a case study of Suriname

Abstract

The feasibility and long term sustainability of proposed projects for wind energy production strongly depend on the availability of wind resources. This availability is assessed by means of local wind speed statistics. Under climate change, the future (long term) wind resource availability is, however, highly uncertain. This research proposes a methodology for on-site wind resource assessment in future (climate change) perspective based on stochastic modeling, observed data and the latest generation of climate model results for future projections. Statistical downscaling and bias correction methods, i.e., the Quantile Perturbation Method and Quantile Matching, are applied to enable local scale assessments. It requires observed data for extended periods to facilitate climate change signal assessments and associated future projections. Two types of data sets are considered for observed data, i.e., on-site (local) measurements and reanalysis data. Two stochastic modeling approaches were adopted for the local observations data extension, i.e., a Markov and Weibull model, allowing for a sensitivity assessment. The methodology has been applied to a potential wind site in Suriname. Results reveal significant changes in wind power potential for the end of the century (2070-2100), ranging from − 27 to 89%. Analysis of the extreme conditions reveals an extended range, from − 65 to 282%.

REVUB-Light: A parsimonious model to assess power system balancing and flexibility for optimal intermittent renewable energy integration – A study of Suriname

“…19(b,e)). It warrants further investigation, especially when wind resources are most likely to be favored with increasing global temperatures [9].The associated wind share for both cases is about 19%, indicating the potential for thermal generation displacement in the power mix, at the projected load (recall that the average load is slightly greater at T a þ 1 C, relative to T a ).…”

“…Potential sites for wind power generation are located in the coastal area of Suriname, showing (more or less) climatically uniform characteristics, with most of the wind resources received from the North-East trades [9]. Reanalysis data were considered to enable wind resource assessments over long time periods [9]. The data used here are 10-m ERA5 wind speeds of hourly resolution, extracted for the period 1980e2018.…”

“…The observed data were used for statistical downscaling and bias correction purposes, as by Ref. [9], given the systematic ERA5 bias.…”

“…Different cases are considered, also allowing a comparison with REVUB model results, i.e., for similar assessments done in a previous study for Suriname [8]. Although solar has potential, especially considered from the future perspective, wind currently seems to be the more obvious candidate, particularly because of the strong seasonal complementarity of wind and hydro, governed by the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) [8,9], with solar resources being less favored (characteristic for the Tropical belt/ITCZ zone) [10]. The overall higher economic viability of wind, relative to solar, e.g.…”

CFD simulation of the wind field around pyramidal roofed single-story buildings

“…All these roofed buildings are exposed to the atmospheric wind and experience a significant wind load. As the wind has both advantageous and dangerous aspect, on the one hand it is beneficial as it has huge power potential [1][2][3] and helpful for ventilation [4] and on the other hand it loads the structures which come in its way. The past cyclone reports for Bhola Cyclone 1970, Bangladesh Cyclone 1991, Cyclone Nargis 2008, Hurricane Arthur 2014 and Cyclone Hudhud 2014 have shown a huge loss of lives and properties [5][6][7][8][9].…”